Bernstein Cuts Its Coinbase Target to $250 and Says Prediction Markets Are Becoming a Core Driver for Crypto Stocks

In a report published Monday ahead of third-quarter earnings, Bernstein kept Outperform ratings on Coinbase, Robinhood and Circle while arguing that crypto trading is giving way to prediction markets, derivatives and tokenization as the main revenue drivers, The Block reported.

Coinbase took the biggest cut. Bernstein lowered its price target to $250 from $330, reduced its 2026 revenue forecast by about 32% to $5.5 billion and now expects a full-year loss of $2.60 per share instead of a $5.97 profit. The analysts wrote, “We no longer assume any bullish crypto price action in our estimates.” They see prediction markets and derivatives growing to about $2 billion in revenue by 2028, up from roughly $600 million earlier this year, and stablecoin revenue as the biggest growth factor. Coinbase stock was about $162 on Monday, down more than 31% year to date.

For Robinhood, the target stays at $160. Bernstein expects event-contract volume to rise 21% quarter over quarter to about 16.4 billion contracts and sees prediction market revenue reaching $1.7 billion in 2028, slightly above projected crypto revenue of $1.6 billion. The stock was about $93.37.

For Circle, the target rises to $145 from $140, based on Arc token presale revenue and the reserve yield outlook. USDC supply fell to about $73 billion from $77 billion in the second quarter, and third-quarter revenue is expected near $770 million. Circle shares, around $80.50, are the only one of the three positive this year, up about 1.5%. This is news, not investment advice.

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Sources:

• The Block: Prediction markets and derivatives drive Bernstein’s crypto stock outlook for Coinbase, Robinhood and Circle