Bitcoin shows clear differences in monthly performance over time. Based on historical monthly returns from 2013 to 2026, several interesting seasonal patterns stand out.
Which Months Have Historically Performed Best?
📈 Strongest Months
October stands out as one of the most consistently strong months, with an average return of +19.92% and a median return of +14.71%.
February (+11.11%) and April (+12.98%) have also historically delivered strong returns.
November has the highest average return at +41.12%. However, this figure is heavily influenced by exceptional years, including November 2013. The median return is +8.81%.
📉 Weaker Months
September is historically the clearest weak month. It was negative in 8 of 14 years, with both the average (−2.41%) and median (−2.44%) being negative.
August also stands out: while its average return is slightly positive (+2.85%), its median return is −6.99%.
🔎 Key Takeaway
The data suggests that Bitcoin has historically performed particularly well in February, April, and October, while August and September have tended to be weaker.
November is statistically the biggest outlier, but its average should be interpreted with caution due to several extreme returns.
Historical seasonality can be useful for analysis and backtesting, but it should not be considered a reliable predictor of future Bitcoin price movements.
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