Prediction markets are spreading into the apps crypto users already use. Phantom began rolling out Kalshi event contracts to US users on October 23, with expansion over the following weeks. Users must complete Kalshi’s KYC and fund trades with CASH, Phantom’s dollar-pegged stablecoin, which is converted to fiat for settlement. The fee is $0.02 per contract plus a small network fee.
Legal limits apply. States are challenging Kalshi’s position that federal oversight shields its contracts from state gambling laws. Phantom blocks some categories: sports in Michigan, sports, elections, politics and entertainment in Nevada, and more in Washington. General Counsel Kevin Jacobs said the CFTC’s jurisdiction is clear and expects the Supreme Court to decide, according to The Block. The CFTC gave Phantom a conditional no-action letter in March.
At Robinhood, JB Mackenzie said price-volatility contracts such as bitcoin, crude oil and gold are starting to dominate the marketplace, though sports remains the largest product. The Fed’s rate decision was its largest event contract in September. Crypto contract durations have shrunk from a week to a day and now as little as 15 minutes, which Mackenzie compared to zero-day options, where losses can come quickly. Robinhood entered the business through a partnership with Kalshi.
The trend shows demand for short-term bets on crypto prices, but also legal uncertainty over where those bets are allowed. Short contracts carry high risk. This is news, not investment advice.
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Sources:
- The Block: Phantom rolls out Kalshi prediction markets to US users
- CoinDesk: Robinhood sees surge in bitcoin, gold prediction markets as traders move beyond sports
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