ETHUSDT Market Snapshot: Broadening 4H, Daily Triangle, Rising OI and Bearish CVD

1. Macro Context & Sentiment

• Price: $1,872.72
• Sentiment Regime: RISK OFF (Score -0.40), MMS Score 4.80, neutral pattern, strategy flag HOLD.
• Market Context:
  • VIX: 16.50, strong_up (+16.50%)
  • USDT, BTC, ETH dominance: all sideways
  • TOTAL1/2/3: +2.82% / +2.65% / +2.07%
  • BTC: -0.65%, ETH: -1.03%
• Alt Breadth (AB): BEAR, Value -0.70
• Stablecoin Pressure (SPI): BEAR, Value 0.47
• FOP Index: PRICE LED BEARISH, Value -0.02, Price -1.03%
• Dominance Price Conflict (DPC): NEUTRAL (0.15)
• Crypto Equity Weight (CEW): DECOUPLED (-1.00)

ETF Flows:

• Mixed flows with large inflows and outflows:
  • +70.5M (2026-07-08), +29.0M, +26.9M, +20.7M, +18.4M
  • -49.5M (2026-07-09), -15.4M (latest)

2. Derivatives, Orderflow & Volatility

CVD & Orderflow (4H):

• CVD Trend: Falling, Net Delta $-8.29M
• Buy/Sell: 49.7% / 50.3%
• Signal: Bearish CVD divergence (price up, CVD down)
• Recent deltas include +47.97M followed by -10.07M as price retraced from $1,891.87 to $1,872.82.

CVD & Orderflow (1D):

• CVD Trend: Falling, Net Delta $-36.04M
• Buy/Sell: 48.9% / 51.1%
• Bearish divergence also present on daily.

Open Interest & Funding:

• 4H:
  • OI Change (24h): +6.80% (2.395M → 2.468M → 2.446M)
  • Funding: ~0.000025–0.000080%, neutral state
• 1D:
  • OI Change (24h): +9.90% (2.251M → 2.453M)
  • Funding: 0.000028%, neutral

Leverage & OI Delta:

• LPI: MODERATE SHORT LEVERAGE, Value -0.58, Funding 4.1982%, OI Δ -0.08%
• OID: MODERATEBEARISHLVL_-1, Value 0.08

Volatility:

• Global Liquidations: No significant peaks (24h).
• 4H ATR: 28.57 (slightly up), HV: 24.07, HV%: 61.12 (both rising).
• 1D ATR: 77.77, HV: 48.02, HV%: 20.31 (all rising).
• TTM Squeeze (1W): Active, indicating a weekly volatility regime in focus.

3. Price Structure, Trend & Key Levels

Patterns:

• 4H: Broadening Formation (HH + LL)
• 1D: Symmetrical Triangle (LH + HL)

Support & Resistance:

• R3: $2,061
• R2: $1,975
• R1: $1,925
• S1: $1,789
• S2: $1,703
• S3: $1,653

ETH at $1,872.72 sits between R1 and S1.

Volume Profile (4H):

• POC: $1,760.06
• HVN: $1,841.59
• LVN: $1,799.34
• VAH: $1,896.14
• VAL: $1,684.45

Volume Profile (1D):

• POC: $2,298.09
• HVN: $1,657.59
• LVN: $2,311.88
• VAH: $2,464.91
• VAL: $1,755.91

Naked POCs:

• 4H NPOCs: $2,236.49, $2,107.48, $2,071.38, $2,031.62, $1,914.81
• 1D NPOC: $2,224.66

Smart Money Concepts:

• FVG Support: 3.6% @ $1,808.94
• CHoCH (4H): $1,846.00 (4 bars ago, bullish)
• CHoCH (1D): $1,833.40 (1 bar ago, bullish)

LTLB:

• 4H Last Top: $1,846.00, Last Bottom $1,750.20, RR Long -0.24
• 1D Last Top: $1,779.90, Last Bottom $1,750.20, RR Long -0.79

Candlestick Patterns: None detected.

4. Momentum, EMAs, Oscillators & Fibonacci

Oscillators:

• RSI: 1h 64.5, 4h 68.0, 1d 64.6, 1w 38.7
• Stoch: 4h 86.3, 1d 98.8 (very high)
• MFI: 1d 74.2, 1w 51.8

4H EMAs:

• Price above all:
  • EMA 8: $1,846.25 (+1.43%)
  • EMA 20: $1,818.80 (+2.96%)
  • EMA 50: $1,789.07 (+4.68%)
  • EMA 200: $1,760.43 (+6.38%)
• Slopes all positive; Trend: Bullish (20 > 50), Macro: Bullish (50 > 200).

1D EMAs:

• Price above EMA 8, 20, 50, below EMA 200:
  • EMA 8: $1,798.71 (+4.11%)
  • EMA 20: $1,756.13 (+6.64%)
  • EMA 50: $1,803.26 (+3.85%)
  • EMA 200: $2,220.98 (-15.68%)
• Slopes: 8/20/50 positive, 100/200 negative; Trend: Bearish (20 < 50), Macro: Bearish (50 < 200).

Fibonacci (4H):

• 0%: $1,713.44
• 50%: $1,804.79
• 61.8%: $1,826.35
• 78.6%: $1,857.04
• 100%: $1,896.14

Price $1,872.72 lies between 78.6% and 100%.

Fibonacci (1D):

• 0%: $1,505.68
• 50%: $1,823.09
• 61.8%: $1,897.99
• 78.6%: $2,004.64
• 100%: $2,140.49

Price is between 50% and 61.8%.

5. Key Technical Stats & Correlation

4H Technicals:

• MACD: 21.50 (↑14.05%), Signal: 11.57 (↑27.30%), Histogram 9.93 (↑1.70%)
• ADX: 25.01 (↑5.24%), +DI: 31.68, -DI: 13.19 (gap narrowing)
• CMF: 0.21 (↓10.98%), still positive
• CCI: 168.38 (↓25.97%), still elevated
• ZSCORE20: 1.75 (↓28.05%)

1D Technicals:

• MACD: 23.71 (↑69.13%), Signal: 2.13 (from -3.26), Histogram 21.57 (↑24.87%)
• ADX: 23.09, +DI: 24.10, -DI: 14.77
• CMF: 0.15 (↑76.17%), CCI: 108.08 (↑50.69%)
• ZSCORE20: 1.80 (↑112.69%)

BTC Correlation (4H):

• Correlation: 0.84, Beta: 1.36
• Expected Move: -0.53%, Actual vs Expected: -0.31%

Need-to-know summary: ETH trades at $1,872.72 inside a 4H broadening pattern and daily triangle, between $1,789 and $1,925, above all 4H EMAs but below the daily EMA 200. Macro sentiment is RISK OFF with bearish alt breadth and stablecoin pressure, while ETF flows are mixed. Derivatives show rising OI, neutral funding, and bearish CVD divergences on both 4H and daily, alongside strong daily momentum (MACD, CCI, CMF, +DI) and increasing volatility with an active weekly TTM Squeeze.