ETHUSDT Market Snapshot: Bearish Macro, Local Compression, and Mixed Flows

ETHUSDT is trading at $1,934.08, sitting below all major EMAs on both 4H and 1D timeframes, within a RISK OFF macro regime. The environment combines bearish higher-timeframe structure with local choppiness and volatility compression.

1. Macro & Sentiment Overview

• Regime: RISK OFF (Score -0.60), MMS Score 4.80, neutral pattern.
• VIX: 20.41 (+20.41%, strong_up), indicating elevated volatility in this dataset.
• Crypto performance:
  • TOTAL1: -1.59%, TOTAL2: -1.52%, TOTAL3: -1.26%.
  • BTC: -0.24%, ETH: -1.06% (ETH underperforms BTC in this snapshot).
• Alt Breadth (AB): BEAR, Value -1.12.
• Stablecoin Pressure (SPI): BEAR, Value 1.16.
• Dominance Price Conflict (DPC): NEUTRAL (-0.09).
• Crypto Equity Weight (CEW): CORRELATED (1.00), aligning crypto with equity risk in this metric.

ETH ETF flows are mixed and sizable:
– Large outflows: -129.1M (2026-02-11), -110.2M (2026-02-12), -41.8M (2026-02-18).
– Large inflows: +57.0M (2026-02-09), +48.6M (2026-02-17).

2. Derivatives & Leverage Structure

• Leverage Pressure (LPI): MODERATE SHORT LEVERAGE, Value -1.33, Funding -3.2949%, OI Δ 0.08%.
• OI Delta (OID): MODERATEBEARISHLVL_-1, Value -0.08.
• FOP Index: PRICE LED BEARISH, Value -0.17, Fund -3.29, OI 0.08%, Price -1.06%.

Open Interest & Funding:

• 4H:
  • OI Change (24h): -1.79%.
  • Funding: near zero, slightly negative (latest -0.000004%).
  • State: Neutral.
• 1D:
  • OI Change (24h): -21.15%.
  • Funding: slightly negative (-0.000100%).
  • State: Neutral.

Orderflow & CVD:

• 4H CVD:
  • Trend: Rising, Net Delta +$51.64M.
  • Buy/Sell: 49.9% / 50.1%.
  • Signal: Bullish CVD Divergence (Price Down, CVD Up – Absorption).
• 1D CVD:
  • Trend: Falling, Net Delta -$2.93B.
  • Buy/Sell: 49.2% / 50.8%.
  • Persistent net selling over recent days.

Liquidations:

• Notable ETH liquidations:
  • 18-02-26 14:35: $2.28M ETH liquidations, mainly longs.
  • 18-02-26 16:25: $0.80M ETH liquidations, mainly shorts.
  • 19-02-26 13:05: $0.18M ETH liquidations, mainly longs.

This describes alternating long and short liquidation spikes around ETH.

3. Spot Structure, Levels & Volume Profile

Support & Resistance:

• R3: $2,123, R2: $2,080, R1: $2,011
• S1: $1,899, S2: $1,856, S3: $1,787

ETH at $1,934.08 is between S1 and R1, almost exactly at the 4H VAL.

4H Structure:

• Trend label: Uptrend (HH + HL), with last high at $2,039.05 and last low at $1,923.78.
• LTLB:
  • Last Top: $2,039.05 (-4.39%).
  • Last Bottom: $1,897.24 (+3.09% daily / +1.34% 4H).
• Smart Money Concepts: FVG (Res) at $1,957.25, no other signals.
• Volume Profile (4H):
  • POC: $2,040.53
  • VAH: $2,120.37
  • VAL: $1,934.09 (≈ current price)
  • HVN: $1,880.62, LVN: $2,054.49
• NPOCs (4H): $2,188.27, $2,131.34, $1,891.82, $1,826.83.

1D Structure:

• Pattern: Symmetrical Triangle (LH + HL) from $3,402.89 high to $1,747.80 low.
• LTLB:
  • Last Top: $2,107.67 (-7.20%).
  • Last Bottom: $1,897.24 (+3.09%).
• Volume Profile (1D):
  • POC: $2,904.61
  • VAH: $3,648.27
  • VAL: $2,326.20
  • HVN: $1,920.87, LVN: $3,091.05

ETH is well below daily POC and VAL, near the daily HVN at $1,920.87.

BTC Correlation (4H):

• Correlation: 0.45, Beta 1.17.
• Expected Move: -1.24%, Actual vs Expected: -0.38%.
• Lag Signal: NEE, Catch-up Probability label: 100.0%.

4. Trend Tools, Oscillators & Volatility

TTM Squeeze:

• 4H: Active, indicating a compressed volatility state in this indicator.

Oscillator Scanner:

• RSI:
  • 1h: 38.1, 4h: 42.9, 1d: 33.4, 1w: 31.4 (all below 50).
• Stoch:
  • 1h: 6.2, 4h: 22.4, 1d: 48.9, 1w: 11.4.
• MFI:
  • 1h: 50.5, 4h: 29.6, 1d: 42.2, 1w: 34.1.

Divergences:

• 4H & 1D divergence modules: No signals.
• 4H CVD: Bullish divergence flagged separately.

Japanese Candlestick Patterns:

• No patterns detected for ETH.

4H Technical Highlights:

• Price: Close $1,949.58 (-1.62%), volume +26.63%.
• MACD: -11.44, histogram -1.46 (more negative).
• ADX: 14.52 (weak trend), -DI > +DI.
• Supertrend: Bearish (-1).
• Bollinger: Price near lower band ($1,941.61), bandwidth slightly up.
• CMF: -0.01, CCI: -97.39, ZSCORE20: -1.56.
• CHOP: 62.53 (choppy).

1D Technical Highlights:

• Price: Close $1,955.91 (-1.79%), volume -3.10%.
• MACD: -215.65, histogram +20.82 (positive and rising).
• ADX: 55.67 (strong trend), -DI > +DI but gap narrowing.
• Supertrend: Bearish (-1).
• Bollinger: Bandwidth 0.38 (-18.12%), contracting.
• CMF: -0.05, CCI: -64.42, ZSCORE20: -0.80.
• CHOP: 66.63 (highly choppy).

5. EMAs & Fibonacci Context

4H EMAs:

• Price vs EMAs:
  • EMA 8: $1,969.73 (-1.81%)
  • EMA 20: $1,980.95 (-2.37%)
  • EMA 50: $2,010.59 (-3.81%)
  • EMA 200: $2,364.67 (-18.21%)
• Slopes: All slightly negative.
• Trend labels: Bearish (20 < 50), Macro Bearish (50 < 200).

1D EMAs:

• Price vs EMAs:
  • EMA 8: $2,008.59 (-3.71%)
  • EMA 20: $2,179.58 (-11.26%)
  • EMA 50: $2,535.94 (-23.73%)
  • EMA 200: $3,082.47 (-37.26%)
• Slopes: All negative.
• Trend labels: Bearish (20 < 50), Macro Bearish (50 < 200).

Fibonacci Levels:

• 4H swing:
  • 0%: $1,897.24, 23.6%: $1,946.90, 100%: $2,107.67.
  • ETH at $1,934.08 is between 0% and 23.6%.
• 1D macro swing:
  • 0%: $1,747.80, 23.6%: $2,138.40, 100%: $3,402.89.
  • ETH is between 0% and 23.6% on this larger range.

Key Takeaways

• Macro: RISK OFF, elevated VIX, bearish alt breadth, and bear-labeled stablecoin pressure.
• Trend: Bearish EMA stacks and Supertrend on both 4H and 1D, despite a 4H swing uptrend and a daily symmetrical triangle.
• Positioning: Moderate short leverage pressure, price-led bearish FOP, neutral funding, and declining OI, especially on the daily.
• Orderflow: 4H bullish CVD divergence vs. persistent negative daily CVD.
• Structure: ETH trades at 4H VAL, near a daily HVN, and well below daily POC/VAL and EMAs, in a choppy, compressed volatility environment with an active 4H TTM Squeeze.