AVAXUSDT Market Snapshot: Risk-Off Macro, Bearish Macro Trend, Neutral Intraday Structure

1. Macro Regime & Market-Wide Context

• Live Price: $9.17
• Regime: RISK OFF (Score: -0.80) with Strategy flag: HOLD
• MMS Score: 3.60, pattern neutral
• Macro backdrop:
  • VIX: 20.29 (+20.29%) – elevated volatility.
  • DOLLAR: +0.15%
  • NDX: -0.25%
  • TOTAL1: -1.33%, TOTAL2: -1.31%, TOTAL3: -1.82%
  • BTC: -1.89%, ETH: -0.10%
• Alt Breadth (AB): BEAR, -1.13 (Powerlvl1) – altcoin breadth negative.
• Stablecoin Pressure (SPI): BEAR, 1.30 – stablecoin flows aligned with downside pressure.
• Leverage Pressure (LPI): MODERATE SHORT LEVERAGE, -0.77, with Funding 5.5593%, OI Δ -0.09% – derivatives lean modestly short.
• OI Delta (OID): MODERATEBEARISHLVL_-1, value 0.36 – open interest behavior interpreted as moderately bearish.
• FOP Index: PRICE LED BEARISH, -0.05 with P -1.08%, OI -0.33%, Fund 3.25 – price weakness with mild OI contraction.
• Dominance Price Conflict (DPC): NEUTRAL (-0.09) – no strong conflict between dominance and price.
• Crypto Equity Weight (CEW): CORRELATED (1.00) – AVAX moves in line with broader risk assets.
• ETF Dashboard: No ETF-specific data provided.

2. Price Structure, Trend & Key Levels

Structural Patterns

• 4H: Symmetrical Triangle (LH + HL)
  • Recent LH: $9.42, HL: $9.05, HH: $9.75, LL: $8.43.
  • Price $9.17 trades inside the triangle.
• 1D: Broadening Formation (HH + LL)
  • Range between $7.55 (LL) and $15.27 (H), with HH $14.95.
  • Current price is in the lower portion of this broad range.

Support & Resistance

• AVAX trades between R1 ($9.65) and S1 ($8.98).

Volume Profile & NPOCs

4H Volume Profile:

• POC: $8.76
• HVN: $8.04
• LVN: $9.17 (exactly at current price)
• VAH: $9.61
• VAL: $8.40

1D Volume Profile:

• POC: $13.80
• HVN: $9.04
• LVN: $12.08
• VAH: $15.24
• VAL: $11.40

Naked POCs:

• 4H NPOCs: $10.92, $9.93, $8.52, $8.26
• 1D NPOCs: $8.63, $8.32

Price is:

• At a 4H LVN ($9.17), just above 4H POC ($8.76).
• Well below daily POC ($13.80) and daily value area ($11.40–$15.24).

3. Trend, EMAs, Oscillators & Patterns

EMAs & Trend

4H EMA Distance:

• EMA 8: $9.18 (-0.07%)
• EMA 20: $9.21 (-0.40%)
• EMA 50: $9.21 (-0.42%)
• EMA 200: $10.46 (-12.32%)

4H EMA Slope:

• EMA 8: +0.01%
• EMA 20: -0.03%
• EMA 50: -0.01%
• EMA 100: -0.08%
• EMA 200: -0.12%

1D EMA Distance:

• EMA 8: $9.23 (-0.69%)
• EMA 20: $9.79 (-6.33%)
• EMA 50: $11.26 (-18.54%)
• EMA 200: $16.57 (-44.66%)

1D EMA Slope:

• EMA 8: +0.08%
• EMA 20: -0.57%
• EMA 50: -0.72%
• EMA 100: -0.62%
• EMA 200: -0.44%

Trend Labels:

• 4H Trend: Bearish (20 < 50)
• 1D Trend: Bearish (20 < 50)
• Macro: Bearish (50 < 200) on both timeframes.

Oscillators

• Short-term (1H/4H): Oscillators near neutral.
• Higher timeframes (1D/1W): Lower RSI and MFI, indicating weaker momentum and money flow.

Fibonacci Levels

4H Fib: Price $9.17 sits between 50% ($9.09) and 61.8% ($9.25) of the local swing.

1D Fib: Price is slightly below 23.6% ($9.30) of the $7.55–$14.95 swing, in the lower quarter of the range.

Candlestick & SMC

• 4H Candlestick: Morning Star V9 Bull at $9.18 (1 bar ago).
• 1W Candlestick: Liqgrab Bull at $9.08 (2 bars ago).
• Smart Money Concepts:
  • FVG Support: 2.9% @ $8.91
  • 4H ADX Event: at $9.18, 4 bars ago.

Volatility & Squeeze

• 1H TTM Squeeze: active – volatility compression on intraday.
• 4H CHOP: 61.57, indicating choppy conditions.
• 1D Bollinger Bandwidth: 0.37, -13.42% – daily volatility contracting.
• HV (4H): 23.31 (-4.43%), HV% 19.29 (-19.29%) – lower realized volatility.
• HV (1D): 102.13 (-1.96%), HV% 77.86 (-2.89%) – slight volatility decline.

4. Orderflow, CVD, OI, Funding & Correlation

BTC Correlation

• Correlation (Pearson): 0.88
• Beta: 1.05
• Expected Move: 0.63%
• Actual vs Expected: +0.47%
• CEW: 1.00 (CORRELATED)

AVAX is strongly correlated with BTC and broad risk assets.

CVD & Orderflow

4H CVD:

• Net Delta: -$7,629,590
• Trend: Falling
• Buy/Sell: 49.3% / 50.7%
• Recent deltas mostly negative, with one large positive spike at $2.44M.

1D CVD:

• Net Delta: -$35,655,488
• Trend: Falling
• Buy/Sell: 49.0% / 51.0%
• Sustained net selling over recent days.

Open Interest & Funding

4H OI/Funding:

• OI Change (24h): -3.36%
• Latest Funding: 0.000100%
• Avg Funding: 0.000018%
• State: Neutral
• OI fluctuates around 7.3–7.5M, funding near zero.

1D OI/Funding:

• OI Change (24h): -1.50%
• Latest Funding: 0.000100%
• Avg Funding: -0.000061%
• Gradual OI decline from 7.99M → 7.40M, with neutral funding.

5. Key Takeaways

• Macro: Risk-off environment with bearish alt breadth, bearish stablecoin pressure, and moderate short leverage.
• Trend: Bearish macro EMA structure on daily and 4H, with price well below major EMAs and daily POC.
• Structure: AVAX trades inside a 4H symmetrical triangle and 1D broadening formation, between S1 $8.98 and R1 $9.65, at a 4H LVN ($9.17).
• Flow: CVD is negative and falling on both 4H and 1D, while OI is modestly reduced and funding neutral, indicating net selling without extreme leverage imbalance.
• Patterns & Volatility: Short-term bullish candlestick labels (4H Morning Star, weekly Liqgrab Bull) coexist with high daily ADX, bearish supertrend, and volatility compression (1H TTM Squeeze, narrowing Bollinger Bands), describing localized two-way conditions within a broader bearish framework.