Traders are weighing election risk against signs that bitcoin supply on exchanges is tightening, CoinDesk reported on Nov. 2, a day before the US midterm vote.
Chris Sullivan, founder and CEO of Hyperion Decimus, pointed to about 29,220 bitcoin-equivalent short positions on CME, worth roughly $2.2 billion, and $21.99 billion in short-side taker volume over 24 hours. Those positions could feed a short squeeze if prices rise, he said, although the recent Binance hack has made the data harder to read. He added that large amounts of bitcoin have moved from exchanges into cold storage. “This is very bullish but not immediately,” he said, expecting support over several months because fewer coins on exchanges means less supply available for sale. Sullivan also said the Crypto Fear and Greed Index and seller-exhaustion measures resemble the first pullback of a new bull market, with the 200-day moving average needing to hold on any further weakness for confirmation.
On politics, Polymarket and Kalshi have priced in the chance that Democrats take both chambers of Congress, which would likely stall the Clarity Act and other crypto legislation. Mark Connors, chief investment officer at Risk Dimensions, called focus on the outcome “time misspent” for a year-end play, citing institutional infrastructure from ICE and Robinhood, and gave price targets of $180,000 for 2027 and $500,000 for 2030.
These are individual views rather than forecasts, and bitcoin was trading near $76,500 when the page was captured on Nov. 3.
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