Bitcoin outperformed the S&P 500 in half of the past 90 US trading sessions, an improvement after a long stretch of underperformance, according to Glassnode’s newsletter The Week Onchain, as reported by Cointelegraph. Glassnode wrote that “the win rate has not been above 50% since March 2025; for most of the past year, Bitcoin lost more sessions than it won.” It added that if the rate climbs above 50% and holds, it would show bitcoin regaining strength against equities. Bitcoin’s average per-session gains were slightly higher than the S&P 500’s.
The two markets remain closely linked. TradingView puts bitcoin’s rolling 20-day correlation with the S&P 500 at 0.63, a level that has been markedly positive since August, when both gained as the US Treasury expanded debt buybacks.
Midterm history gives stocks a tailwind. Capriole Investments counted 26 midterm elections since 1922, excluding this year’s vote. In seven of them Democrats won both the House and the Senate under a Republican president. After those seven cases the S&P 500 averaged gains of 10.7% over the following three months, 17.5% over six months and 15.5% over a year. Capriole founder Charles Edwards posted on X: “There is simply no better election result for markets than we just had.”
The figures describe past averages and small samples, not forecasts. They do suggest equities, and bitcoin’s relative performance against them, may be set up better than sentiment implied a week ago.
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- This information is generated by Artificial Intelligence (AI) and complex algorithms. While advanced, these systems can contain errors or inaccuracies and are for educational purposes only.
- Technical analysis provides no guarantees; this information is purely informative.
- All discussed scenarios are hypothetical and do not constitute predictions or expectations.
- Past performance is not an indicator of future results.
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- No implicit direction is claimed, and no specific behavior of market participants is suggested.