The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave rates unchanged on Wednesday, October 28, after raising its benchmark to 3.75%-4.00% in September. In a Reuters poll, 94 of 100 economists expect a hold, and all of them expect a hike in December. Futures put the chance of an October hike at about 5% to 7%, down from more than 50% after last week’s hot inflation data. For December, pricing ranges from about 73% to 90% depending on the source.
That is why the press conference of Chair Kevin Warsh matters more than the decision itself. A hawkish tone that locks in December, or hints at more hikes, could pressure bitcoin, while a patient tone could bring some relief. The 10-year Treasury yield sits near 4.99%, below its late-September peak of 5.34%.
Oil adds to the risk. Brent settled at $116.72, a six-month high, after Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure. Gasoline drove September’s hot inflation reading, and September PCE data arrives on October 29, the day of the ECB decision.
The rest of the calendar is busy. Alphabet and Microsoft report earnings on October 28, the Bank of Japan decides on October 30, and about $11 billion to $11.7 billion in bitcoin options expire the same day, with max pain near $78,000. Spot bitcoin ETF flows after the Fed will be an early sign of whether money returns.
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Sources:
- Crypto.com: Fed meeting 28 October, what it could mean for Bitcoin
- CryptoTicker: Bitcoin Price Prediction, Fed on Wednesday, $11.1 Billion Expiry on Friday
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