The New York Times reported on November 6 that Vanderbilt University researchers flagged large, profitable bets on Polymarket and Kalshi placed before Times/Siena polls of the Nebraska and Michigan Senate races were published. According to the Times, a user bet $191,277 on Sen. Pete Ricketts winning re-election about an hour before an October 31 poll showed him six points ahead, and later put $622,608 on a Democratic win in Michigan. Polymarket said it spotted the trades and is investigating, and Kalshi declined to comment. The Times said it was unclear whether the trader had inside information.
The Block matched the bets to a Polymarket account called dubdubdub2 and concluded that onchain data does not strongly support the early-access theory. Its Michigan purchases were the largest single-day total by one account across 16 Senate races it reviewed, but the market moved most in Kansas, where the trader did not bet. The account’s earlier history, including roughly $1.05 million on Zohran Mamdani in the 2025 New York mayoral race, showed a habit of holding positions through settlement. Some Kalshi purchases came after the poll, which The Block said points to outcome betting.
Outside experts quoted by The Block said the pattern fits a wealthy individual or small firm and that foul play cannot be definitively ruled out. The Block also disputed the Times’ World Liberty Financial token figure and has asked the Times about it. The Times and Siena’s parent said staff are barred from using unpublished results.
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