Bitcoin traded largely flat near $76,260 early Thursday, up just 0.5% over 24 hours, after the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a 3.75%-4.00% target range on September 16. The move marked the Fed’s first hike since 2023, and Chair Kevin Warsh struck a hawkish tone, saying inflation remains “too high” and framing the increase as merely removing policy accommodation rather than tightening aggressively.
Goldman Sachs reversed its earlier forecast in response, now expecting a further 25 basis point hike in October rather than the pause it had previously projected. CME’s FedWatch tool shows traders pricing just over a 50% probability of that additional move, with the Fed’s own updated projections pointing to a majority of policymakers anticipating at least one more increase before year-end.
Bitcoin’s muted reaction suggests the market had already priced in much of the hawkish surprise, though the shift in rate expectations adds a new variable for crypto markets already digesting the Senate’s recent rejection of the Clarity Act. Traders will be watching October’s meeting closely, as another hike could pressure risk assets broadly while a weaker dollar from persistent inflation concerns has historically offered bitcoin some support.
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