AAVE: Strong Short-Term Breakout, but the Weekly Trend Is Still Bearish

Latest MCP data: 20 August 2026, 10:41:08
AAVE/USDT: $98.35
24h change: +3.04%

1. Executive view

AAVE has strengthened further since the previous reading. The most important change is that price has pushed above the $97.50 resistance area and is now testing the $100.67–$102.54 zone.

The setup is bullish on 4h and improving on 1d, but I would not call the larger trend bullish yet. The weekly structure remains decisively bearish.

My current classification:

BULLISH — strong short-term momentum, but major higher-timeframe resistance remains directly overhead.

Current scorecard

2. The most important thing happening now

AAVE has moved from $85.12 → $98.35.

That’s approximately:

+15.5% from the recent daily low.

The move is technically meaningful because the market has established a sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the 4h chart.

The latest 4h structure is:

$85.12 → $86.78 HL → $90.02 HH → $95.34 → $97.16 → $98.35

That is a genuine structural improvement rather than simply a one-candle spike.

The MCP also detected a:

1d bullish CHoCH at $92.88

That is important. AAVE has now broken the previous daily structural level that had been defining the bearish move.

However, CHoCH ≠ confirmed macro trend reversal.

The weekly chart still says:

LH + LL → bearish.

3. Resistance is now the critical issue

AAVE is currently at:

$98.35

The major levels above are:

This is why I would not chase AAVE aggressively at $98.35.

The market is already close to a major supply zone.

The real breakout test

$100.67 → $102.54

If AAVE can break this area with strong volume and then hold it on a retest, the technical picture changes substantially.

A sustained move above $102.54 would invalidate the immediate bearish daily swing structure and make the next major target:

$106.09

After that, the MCP identifies a much larger volume-related level around:

$116.55

4. Support structure

The support map is particularly useful because AAVE has moved substantially above its moving averages.

The most interesting area is therefore approximately:

$92–94

That region contains multiple pieces of technical structure:

• Daily CHoCH: $92.88
• FVG support: $93.49
• Weekly/4h Fibonacci area
• NPOC: $92.92
• 4h Fibonacci 61.8%: $92.80

That makes $92–94 a high-value retest zone if AAVE experiences a pullback.

5. 4h analysis — strongly bullish

The 4h chart is currently the strongest part of the setup.

Trend

Uptrend — HH + HL

EMA structure

All major EMAs are below price.

That’s bullish.

The EMA slopes are also positive:

• EMA 8: +1.19%
• EMA 20: +0.75%
• EMA 50: +0.36%
• EMA 100: +0.16%
• EMA 200: +0.08%

So the 4h trend isn’t merely bullish because price went up. The moving-average structure itself is improving.

6. But 4h momentum is getting stretched

This is the biggest short-term warning.

4h oscillators

This doesn’t mean:

“AAVE must fall.”

It means:

The probability of consolidation or a pullback increases while upside becomes harder to chase safely.

The key distinction is important.

An asset can remain overbought for a long time during a strong trend.

Therefore I would watch price structure, not RSI alone.

7. Orderflow: this is encouraging

The 4h CVD is one of the strongest pieces of evidence supporting the current rally.

4h

CVD trend: Rising
Net delta: +$1,037,548
Buy: 52.4%
Sell: 47.6%

That’s constructive.

The recent flow shows:

The key observation:

The large positive delta around $95.34 was followed by higher prices.

That’s considerably healthier than a rally where price rises while aggressive buying disappears.

8. The daily CVD tells a different story

This is where the analysis becomes more nuanced.

Daily CVD:

Falling

Net delta:

-$221,329

Buy/Sell:

46.6% / 53.4%

So:

4h → 🟢 bullish orderflow

1d → 🔴 bearish orderflow

That divergence is important.

It suggests the recent rally has strong short-term participation, but the broader daily orderflow hasn’t fully confirmed the move yet.

This is one of the primary reasons I wouldn’t classify AAVE as a fully confirmed macro bullish reversal.

9. Open interest is actually relatively healthy

24h OI change:

-4.27%

Funding:

0.000100%

Market state:

Neutral

This is interesting because price is rising while open interest has fallen.

That can indicate that part of the move is being driven by position closing / short covering rather than aggressive new leverage.

That’s not necessarily bearish.

In fact, it can make the rally less vulnerable to an immediate leverage flush.

But for a sustained continuation, I would eventually want to see:

Price ↑ + OI ↑ + CVD ↑

That would provide much stronger confirmation of a new trend leg.

10. Daily chart — improving, but not yet fully bullish

The daily chart is currently in a transition.

Official MCP structure:

Downtrend — LH + LL

But there is an important bullish event:

CHoCH at $92.88

And the daily indicators have improved substantially.

Recent daily candle:

$87.54 → $95.34

That’s approximately an 8.9% daily close increase.

Volume also increased:

+111.32%

MACD histogram changed from:

-0.34 → +0.25

That’s a significant momentum improvement.

+DI also increased strongly:

17.03 → 26.84

while -DI decreased:

20.90 → 17.13

That’s exactly the kind of directional shift you want to see during a potential reversal.

11. Daily RSI is much healthier than 4h RSI

This is another positive.

Daily RSI: 59.2

That’s bullish without being extreme.

Compare:

4h RSI = 79.9 🔴
1d RSI = 59.2 🟢
1w RSI = 41.5 🟠

This tells me the short-term move is stretched, but the daily trend still has room to develop.

That’s considerably healthier than having RSI >80 across all timeframes.

12. Weekly chart remains the elephant in the room

This is the main reason AAVE isn’t a fully confirmed long-term bullish setup.

Weekly structure:

Downtrend — LH + LL

Weekly EMA structure:

Current price is still:

25.08% below EMA50

and

40.95% below EMA200.

That’s a very large structural gap.

The weekly trend therefore remains firmly bearish.

There are, however, several bullish divergences on the weekly chart:

• OBV
• MACD
• Stoch
• Volume

Those are potentially important for a longer-term bottoming process.

But divergence alone does not create a new bull trend.

Price still has to prove it.

13. TTM Squeeze is interesting

The MCP currently reports:

1d: Active

1w: Active

This is potentially significant.

A squeeze means volatility compression has created conditions where a larger expansion can occur.

The direction isn’t guaranteed by the squeeze itself.

But considering:

• bullish 4h structure;
• daily CHoCH;
• rising 4h CVD;
• improving MACD;
• increasing ADX;
• positive EMA slopes;

the setup currently has a bullish directional bias.

The problem is that AAVE is already approaching major resistance.

14. Bullish scenario

The cleanest bullish scenario would be:

Step 1

AAVE breaks $100.67.

Step 2

Price continues through $102.54.

Step 3

AAVE establishes acceptance above $102.54 rather than producing a quick wick.

Step 4

A retest holds approximately $100–102.

Step 5

CVD remains positive while OI starts expanding.

If that happens, the next obvious MCP resistance is:

$106.09

And beyond that:

$116.55

The move from the current $98.35 price would be approximately:

$106.09 → +7.87%
$116.55 → +18.47%

15. Bearish scenario

The first warning would be failure around:

$100.67–102.54

But rejection alone isn’t enough to turn the setup bearish.

The more important signal would be:

Loss of $97.50 → loss of $93.49/$92.88 → loss of $90

That would start invalidating the current bullish recovery structure.

A move below $92.88 would be particularly important because that is the daily CHoCH level.

Then:

$88.91

becomes the major downside support.

A break of $88.91 would materially weaken the current recovery thesis.

16. My current AAVE assessment

Bottom line

AAVE is materially stronger than it was in the previous MCP reading.

The most important development is that the price has moved above $97.50, while the 4h structure, EMA alignment, CVD and daily momentum are all improving.

But there is a very clear battle immediately ahead:

$100.67 → $102.54

A clean break and successful retest of that zone would be the strongest confirmation that this is evolving from a recovery rally into a larger trend reversal.

Until that happens, I would characterize AAVE as:

“Strong bullish momentum inside an emerging daily reversal, but still fighting a bearish weekly trend.”

The best confirmation level is $102.54.
The most important pullback zone is $92–94.
The major structural invalidation level is $88.91–92.88.