SUIUSDT Market Snapshot: Short‑Term Strength Inside Long‑Term Weakness

SUIUSDT perpetual futures on Binance trade at $0.78460, up +3.85% on the day, within a neutral consolidation regime. The market shows short‑term constructive signals against a still‑bearish weekly backdrop, with mixed orderflow and strong correlation to BTC and equities.

1. Macro Context & Sentiment

• MMS Regime: NEUTRAL (Score 0.00) with a consolidation pattern and a mechanical WAIT label.
• Alt Breadth (AB): BULL (1.66, Powerlvl1) – altcoin participation is broadly positive.
• Stablecoin Pressure (SPI): BULL (‑1.30) – stablecoin dynamics are classified as supportive for crypto.
• Leverage Pressure (LPI): MODERATE SHORT LEVERAGE (Value ‑0.81, Funding ‑0.1643%, OI Δ ‑0.05%).
• OI Delta (OID): MODERATEBULLISHLVL_2, Value ‑0.06.
• FOP Index: CAUTIOUS BULLISH, Value 0.61, Fund 10.95, OI ‑0.02%, P 3.89%.
• Dominance Price Conflict (DPC): RISK OFF CONFIRMATION (‑1.52) – macro stance flagged as risk‑off.
• Crypto Equity Weight (CEW): CORRELATED (1.00) – strong crypto‑equity linkage.
• ETF Dashboard: No explicit ETF metrics provided; treated as unknown.

Broader crypto indices (TOTAL1–3) are negative, while SUI is positive on the day, indicating relative resilience within a soft sector.

2. Trend, Levels & Structure

Trend

• 4H: Uptrend (HH + HL) with last high at $0.79680 and last bottom at $0.73900.
• 1D: Uptrend (HH + HL) from $0.63540 to $0.95400, with a higher low at $0.69690.
• 1W: Broadening formation (HH + LL) with a bearish EMA stack and negative Supertrend direction (‑1).

EMAs & Price Position

• 4H: Price above all EMAs:
  • EMA 8 $0.77007 (+1.89%)
  • EMA 20 $0.76115 (+3.08%)
  • EMA 50 $0.75391 (+4.07%)
  • EMA 200 $0.73781 (+6.34%)
  • All slopes positive; Trend: Bullish, Macro (4H): Bullish.
• 1D: Price above short EMAs but below 200 EMA:
  • EMA 8 $0.75175 (+4.37%)
  • EMA 20 $0.74432 (+5.41%)
  • EMA 50 $0.73789 (+6.33%)
  • EMA 200 $0.97017 (‑19.13%)
  • Short EMAs rising, long EMAs falling; Trend: Bullish, Macro: Bearish.
• 1W: Price above 8 EMA but below 20/50 EMAs:
  • EMA 8 $0.74235 (+5.69%)
  • EMA 20 $0.84669 (‑7.33%)
  • EMA 50 $1.30712 (‑39.97%)
  • All active weekly EMAs sloping down; Trend: Bearish, Macro: Bearish.

Key Levels

• Support & Resistance:
  • R3: $0.80607
  • R2: $0.77803
  • R1: $0.76047
  • S1: $0.71487
  • S2: $0.68683
  • S3: $0.66927
• Price ($0.78460) sits between R2 and R3, above all supports.
• Fibonacci (1D): Price is between 38.2% ($0.75711) and 50% ($0.79470) of the $0.63540–0.95400 swing.
• Volume Profile:
  • 1D POC: $0.73501, VAH: $0.77770, VAL: $0.67809 – price is slightly above VAH.
  • 1W POC: $0.76879 – price is just above this weekly POC.

Supply & Demand

• 4H Demand: $0.77200–0.77700 (Intensity 4625.94) just below spot.
• 4H Supply: Stacked from $0.80800–0.81300 up to $0.84000–0.84500.
• 1D Demand: $0.77000–0.77800 and $0.77400–0.77800 below price; $0.78900–0.79300 above.
• 1D Supply: $0.79300–0.79600 and $0.81500–0.81900 above price.
• NPOCs: 4H NPOCs at $0.74920, $0.68000, $0.64610, $0.81930, $0.86300; 1D NPOCs at $0.79990, $0.81420.

3. Orderflow, Derivatives & Correlation

Orderflow & CVD

• 4H CVD:
  • Trend Rising, Net Delta $6,340,493, Buy/Sell 51.6% / 48.4%.
• 1D CVD:
  • Trend Falling, Net Delta $‑3,617,600, Buy/Sell 48.9% / 51.1%.
  • Tool flags Bearish Divergence (Price Up, CVD Down – Exhaustion).
• 1W CVD:
  • Trend Falling, Net Delta $‑2,875,702, Buy/Sell 44.5% / 55.5%.

Short‑term flow is net positive on 4H, while daily and weekly flows are net negative with a bearish daily divergence.

Open Interest & Funding

• 4H: OI +9.89% (4d), latest funding 0.000100%, state Neutral.
• 1D: OI +5.90% (24d), latest funding 0.000100%, average 0.000066%, state Neutral.
• 1W: OI +3.95% (24w), latest funding ‑0.000007%, average 0.000046%, state Neutral.

Derivatives positioning is expanding gradually with near‑flat funding.

BTC Correlation

• Correlation (Pearson): 0.82
• Beta: 0.94
• Actual vs Expected Move: +3.48%
• Lag Signal: JA
• Catch‑up Probability (tool metric): 81.5%

SUIUSDT is tightly coupled to BTC moves and, via CEW, to equities as well.

4. Volatility, Momentum & Patterns

• Oscillators:
  • 4H: RSI 64.0, Stoch 94.3, MFI 68.7 – strong short‑term momentum.
  • 1D: RSI 52.6, Stoch 22.8, MFI 42.4 – near‑neutral daily momentum.
  • 1W: RSI 40.2, Stoch 17.7, MFI 23.6 – subdued weekly momentum.
• TTM Squeeze: Active on 1W, indicating a weekly volatility compression signal from the tool.
• Candlestick Pattern: 1D Outside Bull at $0.74620 (3 bars ago).
• Divergences:
  • 4H: Bearish OBV divergence (02‑09‑26).
  • 1D: Bullish OBV divergence (19‑08‑26).
  • 1W: Bullish MACD, RSI, and Volume divergences (22‑06‑26).

Technical Stats Highlights:

• 4H: Strong price gain (+3.63%), volume +38.90%, MACD and CMF rising, HV and HV% up (31.92, 72.14), CHOP 59.41 (choppy).
• 1D: Pullback (‑3.55% close), volume ‑35%, MACD slightly softer, Bollinger bandwidth narrowing, HV and HV% still high (96.29, 51.94).
• 1W: Large prior weekly drop (‑16.38% close), high HV (267.69), negative CMF (‑0.18), CHOP 75.64 (very choppy), and EMAs sloping down.

5. Overall Picture (Non‑Directional)

• Short‑term (4H/1D): Uptrend structure, price above local EMAs, strong 4H momentum, and positive 4H CVD, with demand zones just below and multiple supply zones above.
• Long‑term (1W): Bearish EMA structure, negative CMF, high volatility, and a broadening formation, with price below key weekly EMAs and far below macro Fibonacci retracement levels.
• Flows & Derivatives: OI rising across timeframes, funding near flat, 4H flow supportive but 1D/1W CVD negative with a flagged bearish daily divergence.
• Macro Linkages: Strong BTC correlation (0.82), CEW 1.00, and DPC signaling risk off confirmation, while alt breadth and stablecoin pressure are classified as bullish.

This combination describes a locally strong but structurally complex environment, where SUI’s short‑term resilience operates within a longer‑term corrective context and is tightly linked to broader crypto and equity conditions.