Cardano (ADA) confirms Bearish ChoCH Break, Opening the door to deeper declines

Based on the data of our Technical Analysis Software, here is a technical analysis of the Cardano ADA/USDT (Cardano) chart.

1. General Overview

• Asset: ADA (Cardano) versus USDT (Tether).
• Timeframe: 1 Week (1w). Each candle represents one week of price action. This is a long-term chart.
• Current Price: $0.2661.
• Current Date (according to chart/interface): February 2026.

2. Market Structure (SMC – Smart Money Concepts)

The chart relies heavily on SMC indicators. These are the most critical signals:

• Bearish ChoCH (Change of Character): In the bottom right of the chart, a “ChoCH” label is visible with an orange dotted line around the level of $0.2737.
  • Meaning: The price has dropped below a significant previous ‘low’. This confirms a shift in market character from (potentially) neutral/bullish to bearish.
  • The current price ($0.2661) is trading below this level, confirming market weakness.
• Full Retracement: The chart shows that the massive price surge from late 2024 (where the price peaked above $1.20) has been completely erased. The price has returned to the “base” seen in 2024.

3. Key Levels (Support & Resistance)

• Current Support: The price is now sitting in a historical consolidation zone from 2024 (between $0.25 and $0.40). If this level fails to hold, the price could drop further.
• Resistance (FVGs): The right sidebar (under “Open FVG”) lists several Bearish Fair Value Gaps. These are zones where the price will likely encounter resistance if it attempts to rise:
  • $0.30 – $0.33: First heavy resistance (+14.53% from current price).
  • $0.36 – $0.37: Second resistance zone.
  • The fact that these are marked as “Bear” suggests significant selling pressure exists in these zones.

4. Trend Analysis

• Long-term Trend: The trend is strongly downward. Following the peak in early 2025, a series of ‘lower highs’ and ‘lower lows’ has been established.
• Momentum: The large red candles in the second half of 2025 demonstrate aggressive selling pressure. There is no clear sign of a bottom formation yet (such as a long lower wick or a bullish engulfing candle).

Conclusion

The chart presents a very bearish picture for ADA on the weekly timeframe.

• The market structure has broken to the downside ($0.2737).
• There is heavy resistance directly above the current price ($0.30+).
• This is a “round trip” scenario: all gains from the previous bull run have evaporated.

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