Solana Market Snapshot: Risk-Off Pressure and High Correlation at $93

Solana is trading at $93.34 in a risk-off, defensive environment, with broad crypto weakness, elevated volatility, and strong correlation to BTC and crypto-equity proxies. The following summary highlights the most critical structural and data points.

1. Macro Regime, Sentiment & Systemic Context

• Regime: RISK OFF (MMS Score: -1.60, pattern: down_trend).
• Strategy Label: DEFENSIVE.
• Alt Breadth (AB): BEAR, Value: -2.24 (Powerlvl2) – altcoins broadly under pressure.
• Stablecoin Pressure (SPI): BEAR, Value: 2.60 – stablecoin flows aligned with pressure on crypto.
• Leverage Pressure (LPI): MODERATE SHORT LEVERAGE, Value: -0.79, Funding: 5.0567%, OI Δ: 0.61%.
• OI Delta (OID): MODERATEBEARISHLVL_-1, Value: -12.75 – derivatives positioning tilted bearish.
• FOP Index: LOW ACTIVITY BEARISH, Value: -1.15, Fund: -36.58, OI: 2.70%, P: -4.72%.
• Dominance Price Conflict (DPC): NEUTRAL (-0.36) – no strong conflict between dominance and price.
• Crypto Equity Weight (CEW): CORRELATED (1.00) – SOL moves in line with crypto-equity proxies.

Macro & Crypto Backdrop:

• VIX: strong_up, 18.95 (+18.95%) – volatility rising.
• TOTAL1/2/3: -3.99% / -4.16% / -3.65% – broad crypto indices lower.
• BTC: -3.05%, ETH: -2.98%, NDX: -1.38%, DOLLAR: +0.34%.

SOL ETF Flows:

• Mixed flows: +5.6M, +1.9M, +2.5M, +5.5M inflows and -11.3M, -2.2M outflows, with 0.0M on the latest date (2026-02-03).
• No persistent single-direction pattern in the recent week of ETF flows.

2. Price Structure, Levels & Volume Profile

Current Price: $93.34

Support & Resistance:

• R3: $112.99
• R2: $109.08
• R1: $104.65
• S1: $96.30
• S2: $92.39
• S3: $87.96

SOL trades below S1, slightly above S2, and above S3, with all resistance levels well overhead.

Trend & Structure:

• 4H Trend: Downtrend (LH + LL) from $128.34 (HH) down through $119.12 (LH), $112.14 (LL), $106.12 (LH), $95.95 (LL).
• 1D Trend Label: Uptrend (HH + HL) historically, but current EMAs and price are now aligned in a bearish EMA configuration (see below).
• Smart Money Concepts:
  • 4H BOS 🔴 at $95.95 (2 bars ago) – bearish break of structure.
  • 1W BOS 🔴 at $116.88 (1 bar ago) – bearish weekly break of structure.
• Japanese Candlestick (1W): Evening Bear at $118.85, 2 bars ago.

Fibonacci Context:

• 4H Fib: Price $93.34 lies between 0% ($90.00) and 23.6% ($99.05), below all higher retracements.
• 1D Fib: Price is below 0% ($95.95) and all retracement levels (23.6%–100%).

Volume Profile:

• 4H:
  • POC: $101.78, HVN: $103.12, VAL: $91.96, VAH: $123.38.
  • SOL trades just above VAL and below POC/HVN/VAH.
• 1D:
  • POC: $134.00, HVN: $107.62, VAL: $119.73, VAH: $143.51.
  • SOL trades well below VAL, POC, HVN, and VAH.

Naked Point of Control (NPOC):

• 4H: None active.
• 1D: NPOC at $84.35, below current price.

LTLB Structure:

• 4H: Last Top $106.12 (-11.06%), Last Bottom $91.31 (+3.36%).
• 1D: Last Top $128.34 (-23.73%), Last Bottom $117.15 (-16.44%) – both above current price.

TTM Squeeze:
– No squeeze detected for SOL.

3. Derivatives, Orderflow, Correlation & Volatility

BTC Correlation (4H):

• Correlation: 0.95, Beta: 0.98 – SOL is tightly linked to BTC moves.
• Expected Move: -0.28%, Actual vs Expected: +2.00% – recent move deviated modestly from BTC-implied expectation.
• Same correlation block appears under 1D context, reinforcing high cross-asset linkage.

Orderflow & CVD – 4H:

• CVD Trend: Falling, Net Delta: $-188.7M.
• Buy/Sell Ratio: 49.4% Buy / 50.6% Sell – slight sell-side majority.
• Recent deltas mostly negative, with one positive bar ($32.46M at 16:00).

Orderflow & CVD – 1D:

• CVD Trend: Falling, Net Delta: $-1.42B.
• Buy/Sell Ratio: 48.6% Buy / 51.4% Sell – more sells than buys.
• Recent days show predominantly negative deltas, with one positive day (02-02-26).

Open Interest & Funding – 4H Context:

• OI Change (24h): +13.28%, Latest Funding: -0.000344%, Avg Funding: -0.000212%, Market State: Neutral.
• OI rising intraday from 10.175M to 10.689M, with slightly negative funding throughout.

Open Interest & Funding – 1D Context:

• OI Change (24h): -8.94%, Latest Funding: -0.000218%, Avg Funding: -0.000040%, Market State: Neutral.
• OI declined from 10.114M to 9.390M, then stabilized and slightly increased to 9.857M.

Global Liquidations:

• Multiple peaks dominated by long liquidations, including:
  • $4.10M total at 04-02-26 13:35, all longs, with SOL/USDT $1.30M liquidated.
  • $1.62M at 04-02-26 15:00, mostly longs, with SOL/USDT $76K.
• BTC and ETH also show large long liquidations at these times.

Volatility:

• 4H HV: 32.03 (+5.05%), HV%: 67.65 (+7.52%).
• 1D HV: 77.12 (+2.59%), HV%: 50.61 (+12.34%).
• Both intraday and daily volatility metrics are rising, while no TTM Squeeze is present.

4. Momentum, EMAs & Oscillators

Oscillator Scanner:

• 4H and 1D oscillators are low, especially Stoch and RSI.
• Weekly Stoch is also very low (4.0).

EMAs – 4H:

• Price $93.34 is below:
  • EMA 8: $97.11 (-3.89%)
  • EMA 20: $101.04 (-7.62%)
  • EMA 50: $108.78 (-14.19%)
  • EMA 200: $123.71 (-24.55%)
• All EMA slopes negative (from -0.80% on EMA 8 to -0.24% on EMA 200).
• Trend: Bearish (20 < 50), Macro: Bearish (50 < 200).

EMAs – 1D:

• Price $93.34 is well below:
  • EMA 8: $109.53 (-14.78%)
  • EMA 20: $119.54 (-21.92%)
  • EMA 50: $128.49 (-27.35%)
  • EMA 200: $153.70 (-39.27%)
• All EMA slopes negative (from -2.95% on EMA 8 to -0.36% on EMA 200).
• Trend: Bearish (20 < 50), Macro: Bearish (50 < 200).

Divergences:

• 4H: No divergence signals.
• 1D: Bullish OBV divergence on 26-01-26, recorded historically.

5. Key Technical Stats Highlights

4H:

• ADX: 65.28 (+1.60%) – very strong trend reading.
• +DI / -DI: 4.11 / 34.36 – negative directional index dominates.
• Bollinger Bands: Middle $100.67, Upper $107.46, Lower $93.89; bandwidth 0.13 (+6.78%) – bands expanding slightly.
• CMF: 0.07 (from -0.01) – 4H money flow turned positive.
• CHOP: 43.94 (-7.21%) – choppiness decreasing.
• ZSCORE20: -1.86 (less negative than -2.64).
• WICKLOWERLONG: 1.00 – latest bar shows a long lower wick signal.

1D:

• ADX: 41.83 (+4.86%) – strong trend.
• +DI / -DI: 6.85 / 34.66 – negative directional index higher.
• Bollinger Bands: Middle $124.03, Upper $150.78, Lower $97.28; bandwidth 0.43 (+6.35%) – daily bands expanding.
• CMF: -0.13 (more negative than -0.06).
• CHOP: 35.04 (+9.68%) – choppiness increasing.
• ZSCORE20: -1.95 (more negative than -1.71).
• Volume: -19.02% vs previous day, while ATR slightly higher.

Summary Takeaway

SOL at $93.34 is:

• Embedded in a risk-off macro regime with bearish alt breadth, bearish stablecoin pressure, and bearish-leaning derivatives metrics (OID, FOP, LPI).
• Trading below major EMAs and below key volume profile value areas on both 4H and 1D.
• Exhibiting strong trend readings (high ADX), elevated and rising volatility (HV, HV%), and falling CVD with a slight sell-side majority.
• Highly correlated to BTC (0.95) and crypto-equity proxies (CEW 1.00), with ETF flows showing both inflows and outflows in recent days.

This configuration describes a market state where SOL is under pressure within a broader risk-off environment, with strong trend, high volatility, and negative flow metrics, without implying any forward-looking direction.