Options traders have raised the odds of bitcoin finishing below $70,000 at Christmas to 31% from 15% a week earlier, The Block reported on November 11, citing pricing on the Derive options platform. Bitcoin traded near $73,500 after five straight weekly losses.
Derive CEO Nick Forster told The Block that the implied chance of a finish above $80,000 fell to 26% from 53%. Puts cost more than equivalent calls, which he described as traders growing defensive. Derive bitcoin options volume was $418 million last week, up 37%, with puts making up 55% of premiums versus 36% the week before. One wallet reportedly spent about $14,000 to protect 300 BTC against a fall below $60,000 by November 27. These are market-implied probabilities from option prices, not forecasts.
K33 Research analyst Vetle Lunde said perpetual futures open interest was about 353,000 BTC on Tuesday, a level exceeded on only 1.2% of trading days in the past two years. Open interest rose 12% over 30 days while bitcoin lost 10%. Lunde said a breakdown could trigger long liquidations while a recovery could fuel short covering, calling the market “ripe for a squeeze.”
The Block also noted that US spot bitcoin ETFs saw $1.28 billion in net outflows last week plus $296 million on Monday and Tuesday. The next macro event is Friday’s producer price index release.
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