October CPI on November 10 Looms as the Last Inflation Reading Before the Fed’s December Meeting

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release October consumer price index data on Tuesday, November 10, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, according to its release schedule. CryptoTicker described it as the last inflation reading before the Federal Reserve’s December 8-9 meeting, with November CPI due on December 10.

The previous print was hot. CryptoTicker reported that September CPI rose 3.7% year on year and 0.6% month on month, while core CPI rose 2.6% and 0.3%, both above analyst expectations of 0.2% and 2.5% for the monthly and annual core figures respectively. Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred gauge, stood at 3.1%.

The Fed held its policy rate at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28, with two voting members preferring a quarter-point hike, CryptoTicker reported. It put the odds of a December hike at roughly 80% to 85%, depending on the source. No consensus forecast for October’s figures was available in the article.

For crypto, the concern is leverage. CryptoTicker argued that CPI surprises hit leveraged positions first, so liquidation risk is elevated around the release. Bitcoin traded near $77,600 on its November 1 snapshot, before a selloff this week pushed it to a seven-week low. Spot bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of roughly $410 million to $650 million on October 30, depending on the data source.

Traders will be watching whether Tuesday’s numbers reinforce the case for tighter policy.

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Sources:

• BLS: CPI release schedule

• CryptoTicker: US inflation data, Fed rate decision: Bitcoin heading into November 10