ECB Officials Point to December 17 for a Third Rate Hike as Eurozone Inflation Hits 3.8%

European Central Bank policymakers see the December 17 meeting as the most likely moment for another interest rate increase, according to Bloomberg, which spoke to officials in Bangkok this week. A hike would be the third of 2026 and would coincide with the release of new economic projections.

Lithuanian central bank president Gediminas Simkus said the Governing Council prefers to decide when it has the most data available, but he did not rule out a move at the October 29 meeting. Latvia’s Martins Kazaks warned that future decisions will be harder, as higher government bond yields make borrowing more expensive and could weigh on growth.

The ECB has already raised rates twice this year, by 0.25 percentage points each time, taking the deposit rate to 2.5% since September. Eurozone inflation climbed to 3.8% in September, well above the 2% target, driven mainly by energy prices. Officials see no strong spillover to wages and other prices yet, but warn it could still follow.

For crypto, tighter European policy adds to a restrictive global backdrop. Higher rates make safer assets more attractive and can pressure risk assets such as stocks and Bitcoin, although the effect is not automatic and geopolitics, growth and market positioning also matter. With oil above $100 and US yields elevated, traders will watch the October 29 meeting and December guidance closely.

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Sources:

• Crypto Insiders: ECB-bestuurders zien december als moment voor nieuwe renteverhoging
• Investing.com (Bloomberg): ECB-functionarissen verwachten renteverhogingen