The crypto market heads into an important week. New US inflation data could shift expectations for Federal Reserve policy, with a direct impact on Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and major altcoins. What matters most is not inflation itself, but whether the numbers come in above or below expectations.
This week’s calendar
| Date | Event | Time (CEST) |
|---|---|---|
| Mon Oct 12 | Columbus Day: US bond market closed | – |
| Wed Oct 14 | US CPI for September | 14:30 |
| Thu Oct 15 | US PPI for September | 14:30 |
Previous readings and forecasts
| Indicator | August | September forecast |
|---|---|---|
| CPI m/m | +0.4% | approx. +0.6% |
| CPI y/y | 3.4% | 3.7% |
| Core CPI m/m | +0.3% | approx. +0.2% |
| Core CPI y/y | 2.4% | 2.4–2.5% |
| PPI m/m | +0.4% | +0.5% (RBC: +0.9%) |
| PPI y/y | 5.4% | – |
A CPI of 3.7% would be a four-month high. Core inflation was at its lowest level since March 2021 in August, so the rise is mainly driven by energy.
Two scenarios
If inflation comes in below expectations, markets may price in a softer rate path. If the dollar and bond yields fall as well, that could support Bitcoin. If inflation comes in higher, a longer period of high rates becomes more likely, which could add selling pressure on BTC and altcoins.
Which coins could react?
Besides BTC and ETH, SOL, XRP, ADA, AVAX, LINK, SUI, NEAR and DOGE may also react. Smaller coins such as FARTCOIN, and tokens with an upcoming unlock, often move more sharply.
What to watch
The first reaction does not tell the whole story. Watch whether Bitcoin holds the move and whether the dollar and bond yields confirm the direction. Core CPI is especially important.
Sources:
- Bureau of Labor Statistics: October 2026 release schedule
- Bureau of Labor Statistics: PPI August 2026
- Trading Economics: US CPI Report Comes Broadly in Line with Forecasts
- RBC Economics: September CPI is just the tip of the inflation iceberg
⚠️ RISK WARNING & AI DISCLOSURE
- This information is generated by Artificial Intelligence (AI) and complex algorithms. While advanced, these systems can contain errors or inaccuracies and are for educational purposes only.
- Technical analysis provides no guarantees; this information is purely informative.
- All discussed scenarios are hypothetical and do not constitute predictions or expectations.
- Past performance is not an indicator of future results.
- This is not financial advice and is not intended as a call-to-action for the reader.
- No implicit direction is claimed, and no specific behavior of market participants is suggested.