ETHUSDT Market Structure Summary: Risk-Off, ETF Outflows, and Bearish Trend

ETHUSDT trades at $2,229.77 in a clearly risk-off environment, with macro stress, ETF outflows, and bearish technical structure dominating the current picture.

1. Macro & Sentiment Snapshot

• Regime: RISK OFF (Score -0.80) with absorption_phase flagged.
• MMS Score: 0.50, with triggers including extreme BTC ETF inflow, spot dominance bullish, SPX breakdown, VIX strong_up, and gold up.
• Cross-asset context:
  • VIX: 17.48 (+17.48%)
  • SPX: -1.01%
  • NDX: -1.92%
  • GOLD: +2.87%
• Crypto performance:
  • TOTAL1: -3.14%
  • BTC: -3.39%
  • ETH: -5.06% (underperforming BTC and majors).
• Alt Breadth (AB): BEAR (-2.72, Powerlvl2) – broad altcoin weakness.
• Stablecoin Pressure (SPI): BEAR (3.00) – stablecoin flows aligned with risk-off.
• Dominance: USDT, BTC, ETH all sideways, with ETH dominance slightly down (-0.33%).
• Crypto Equity Weight (CEW): 1.00 (CORRELATED) – crypto tightly linked to equity risk.

2. ETF Flows, Derivatives & Orderflow

ETH ETF Flows

• Recent flows dominated by outflows:
  • 2026-01-29: -155.7M
  • 2026-01-30: -252.9M
  • 2026-02-02: -2.9M
• Occasional inflows:
  • 2026-01-26: +117.0M
  • 2026-01-28: +28.1M
• Overall pattern: net outflow phase around the current drawdown.

Leverage & OI

• Leverage Pressure (LPI): MODERATE SHORT LEVERAGE, value -1.51, with funding -4.2738% (model) and OI Δ -1.58%.
• OI Delta (OID): MODERATEBEARISHLVL_-1, value 7.97.
• FOP Index: PRICE LED BEARISH, value -0.62, with:
  • Fund: -4.27
  • OI: -1.58%
  • Price: -5.06%
• Open Interest (1D): -14.64% (24h), from 2.272M → 1.948M.
• Funding (1D): Slightly negative (-0.000143%), market state neutral.
• Overall: De-leveraging in a bearish price move, with mildly short-tilted funding.

Orderflow & CVD

• 4H CVD:
  • Trend: Falling
  • Net Delta: $-1.67B
  • Buy/Sell: 48.8% / 51.2%
• 1D CVD:
  • Trend: Falling
  • Net Delta: $-5.66B
  • Buy/Sell: 48.9% / 51.1%
• Recent days show large negative deltas as price fell from $2,707 → $2,270, followed by smaller positive deltas within the downtrend.
• Global Liquidations: Alternating long and short peaks, with ETH frequently among top liquidated assets.

BTC Correlation

• Correlation (4H): 0.97
• Beta: 1.64
• Expected Move: 0.11%
• Actual vs Expected: +1.05%
• ETH is highly synchronized with BTC, with amplified moves relative to BTC.

3. Trend, EMAs, Volume Profile & Key Levels

Trend Structure

• 4H: Downtrend (LH + LL) from $3,045.78 HH to recent LL $2,157.14.
• 1D: Symmetrical triangle (LH + HL) over a longer horizon, but recent price action is decisively lower.

EMAs & Trend Tools

4H:

• Price below all EMAs:
  • EMA 8: $2,316.85 (-3.76%)
  • EMA 20: $2,396.38 (-6.95%)
  • EMA 50: $2,596.35 (-14.12%)
  • EMA 200: $2,913.18 (-23.46%)
• All EMA slopes negative; Trend: Bearish (20 < 50), Macro: Bearish (50 < 200).

1D:

• Price deeply below:
  • EMA 8: $2,608.05 (-14.50%)
  • EMA 20: $2,830.50 (-21.22%)
  • EMA 50: $2,994.16 (-25.53%)
  • EMA 200: $3,265.05 (-31.71%)
• EMA slopes all negative; Trend and Macro both Bearish.

Volume Profile & NPOCs

4H Volume Profile:

• POC: $2,947.37
• VAL: $2,367.87
• HVN: $2,400.63
• NPOCs: $2,742.40, $2,228.93

1D Volume Profile:

• POC: $2,886.39
• VAL: $2,795.23
• NPOC: $2,451.95

ETH at $2,229.77 is:

• Below both daily and 4H VAL and POCs, trading under major volume nodes.
• Very close to the 4H NPOC at $2,228.93, with a daily NPOC at $2,451.95 above.

Support & Resistance

• Resistance: R1 $2,649, R2 $2,957, R3 $3,200
• Support: S1 $2,098, S2 $1,855, S3 $1,547

Price is between S1 and R1, closer to S1.

4. Momentum, Oscillators, Candles & Divergences

Oscillators

• RSI: 4H 34.3, 1D 27.6 – low values, consistent with downside momentum.
• Stochastics: 1H 4.5, 1D 18.2, 1W 2.4 – very low, indicating strong recent downside.
• MFI: 4H 29.3, 1D 17.0 – weak money inflow.

Candlestick Patterns

• 1D: Liqgrab Bull at $2,270.15 (2 bars ago) – a liquidity grab within the downtrend.
• 1W: Dcconfirm Bear at $2,816.89 (2 bars ago) – bearish weekly confirmation.
• 4H: Evening Bear at $2,323.12 (3 bars ago) – bearish reversal pattern near a local high.

Divergences

• 4H: No divergence signals.
• 1D: Bearish OBV divergence on 28-01-26, preceding the current decline from the $3,000+ area.

Smart Money Concepts

• FVG Support: 1.5% @ $2,268.00
• Weekly CHoCH: Bearish at $2,623.57, 1 bar ago – weekly structure turning down.

5. Volatility & Technical Stats (Key Takeaways)

Volatility

• 4H ATR: 84.41 (slightly down), HV: 45.94, HV%: 97.76 – elevated short-term volatility.
• 1D ATR: 171.52 (up), HV: 75.52, HV%: 79.29 – high daily volatility, slightly easing from prior peaks.
• TTM Squeeze: No active signals.

4H Technicals (Last Bar)

• Close: $2,303.20 (+1.16% vs prior) with volume +31.71%.
• MACD / Signal: Still negative, but less negative, histogram +8.54% – slowing downside on this bar.
• Bollinger Bandwidth: 0.17 (-16.88%) – marginally lower volatility.
• ADX: 63.80, -DI > +DI – strong bearish trend.
• CMF: -0.05 (improving from -0.08) – net outflow, slightly reduced.

1D Technicals (Last Bar)

• Close: $2,347.02 (+3.39% vs prior) after a -7.41% open gap.
• Volume: +21.62%, indicating active trading during the rebound.
• MACD / Signal / Histogram: All more negative, confirming strengthening daily downside momentum.
• Bollinger Bandwidth: 0.42 (+9.53%) – volatility expansion.
• ADX: 36.07 (+6.88%), -DI >> +DI – strengthening bearish trend.
• CMF: -0.08 (improved from -0.14) – continued net selling, but less intense.

Need-to-Know Summary

• ETH is in a risk-off macro regime with broad crypto weakness, bearish alt breadth, and bearish stablecoin pressure.
• ETH ETF flows show a net outflow phase, with large redemptions around the recent drawdown.
• Derivatives data (LPI, OID, FOP, OI, funding) describe a price-led bearish move with de-leveraging and mild short-side funding.
• Orderflow (CVD) is consistently negative on both 4H and 1D, indicating persistent net selling.
• ETH trades below all major EMAs and below key volume nodes (POCs, VALs) on both 4H and 1D, within a 4H downtrend and a bearish-tilted daily triangle.
• Oscillators and trend tools show strong downside momentum, elevated volatility, and bearish weekly and 4H candlestick confirmations, with only localized signs of absorption in the most recent bars.
• ETH remains highly correlated to BTC (0.97) and equities (CEW 1.00), anchoring its behavior to broader risk sentiment.