XLMUSDT Market Structure Snapshot: Bearish Trend, Neutral Regime, Absorption at $0.16

XLM is trading at $0.16, sitting on a major 4H volume node (POC) and within a broader daily downtrend. The environment combines neutral macro regime and healthy crypto conditions with weak alt breadth and structurally bearish XLM trend metrics.

1. Macro & Sentiment Context

• Regime: NEUTRAL (0.00) with MMS Score 9.70 – “healthy_growth”.
• Spot dominance bullish, SPX +2.46%, NDX +2.93%, GOLD +3.06%, DOLLAR -0.12%.
• TOTAL1 +1.14% vs TOTAL2 -0.14%, TOTAL3 -0.42% – large caps stronger than alts.
• Alt Breadth (AB): BEAR, -0.28 – altcoins broadly underperform.
• Stablecoin Pressure (SPI): BULL, -0.04 – supportive stablecoin flow metric.
• Leverage Pressure (LPI): MODERATE SHORT LEVERAGE, funding -5.3261%, OI Δ 0.44%.
• FOP Index: NEUTRAL, with negative funding component and slightly positive OI.
• DPC: NEUTRAL (0.47) – no major dominance/price conflict.
• Crypto Equity Weight (CEW): CORRELATED (1.00) – crypto moving with equities.

2. Trend & Structure

4H:

• Pattern: Symmetrical Triangle (LH + HL) around $0.16.
• Trend: EMAs show short‑term flattening but overall bearish (20 < 50, 50 < 200).
• Volume Profile:
  • POC: $0.16
  • VAH: $0.18
  • VAL: $0.14
  • HVN: $0.15, LVN: $0.21
• NPOCs: $0.15, $0.17, $0.19 – key prior volume nodes near current price.
• Support/Resistance:
  • R1: $0.18, R2: $0.19, R3: $0.21
  • S1: $0.14, S2: $0.12, S3: $0.11
• LTLB (4H): Last top $0.17, last bottom $0.16, with near‑balanced RR metrics.

1D:

• Trend: Downtrend (LH + LL) with all EMAs sloping down.
• Price vs EMAs:
  • EMA 8: $0.17 (-4.85%)
  • EMA 20: $0.19 (-13.52%)
  • EMA 50: $0.21 (-22.36%)
  • EMA 200: $0.27 (-39.41%)
• Volume Profile:
  • POC: $0.24, VAH: $0.27, VAL: $0.21, HVN: $0.15, LVN: $0.22
  • Most historical volume is above current price.
• LTLB (1D): Last top $0.21, last bottom $0.14.

3. Orderflow, CVD, OI & Funding

4H Orderflow:

• CVD Trend: Rising, Net Delta +$1.23M, 50% Buy / 50% Sell.
• CVD Divergence: Bullish (Price Down, CVD Up – Absorption).
• CMF (4H): +0.02, up from -0.01 – buy‑side flow improving.
• Recent deltas at $0.16 are consistently positive.

1D Orderflow:

• CVD Trend: Falling, Net Delta -$11.09M, 49.2% Buy / 50.8% Sell.
• Last three daily deltas are positive at $0.16, indicating recent stabilization within a still‑negative cumulative picture.
• CMF (1D): -0.02, improved from -0.06.

Open Interest & Funding:

• 4H:
  • OI Change (24h): +0.29%
  • Funding: -0.000184% (avg -0.000103%)
  • Market State: Neutral
• 1D:
  • OI Change (24h): +9.95%
  • Funding: -0.000118% (avg -0.000032%)
  • Market State: Neutral
• Combined with LPI (moderate short leverage) and FOP neutral, this describes increased derivatives activity with mild short‑funded tilt but no extreme positioning.

4. Momentum, Oscillators & Volatility

Oscillators:

• 1h: RSI 55.6, Stoch 85.2, MFI 69.7 – short‑term momentum relatively strong.
• 4h: RSI 49.6, Stoch 49.3, MFI 64.6 – neutral to mildly positive.
• 1d: RSI 32.7, Stoch 33.9, MFI 38.0 – weak daily momentum.
• 1w: RSI 30.9, Stoch 5.6, MFI 28.6 – depressed weekly momentum.

Divergences:

• 4H: Bullish OBV divergence (05‑02‑26).
• 1D: Bullish STOCH divergence (25‑01‑26).

TTM Squeeze:

• 1h: Active, indicating short‑term volatility compression.

Volatility & Choppiness:

• 4H:
  • ATR stable, HV 43.64, HV% 94.18 – high but slightly easing volatility.
  • CHOP 68.59, rising – strongly choppy, range‑bound conditions.
• 1D:
  • ATR lower, HV 94.22, HV% 81.94 – very high historical volatility.
  • CHOP 31.19 – moderate choppiness.

5. Correlation & Cross‑Market Linkages

• BTC Correlation (4H):
  • Pearson: 0.93, Beta: 0.87
  • Expected Move: 0.29%, Actual vs Expected: +0.70%
  • Lag Signal: JA, Catch‑up Probability: 93.1%
• XLM is tightly coupled to BTC on 4H, with slightly lower volatility than BTC (beta < 1).
• CEW = 1.00 confirms strong co‑movement with equities, consistent with SPX/NDX strength.

Need‑to‑Know Summary

• Macro: Neutral regime with healthy crypto conditions, but alts lag and VIX is elevated.
• Trend: XLM is in a clear daily downtrend, trading well below all major EMAs, while 4H shows a symmetrical triangle around $0.16.
• Key Levels:
  • Support: $0.14 (S1, Fib 0% 4H & 1D, VAL 4H)
  • Control: $0.16 (POC 4H, FVG support)
  • Resistance: $0.18–0.19 (R1–R2, VAH, Fib 78.6–100% 4H, NPOCs)
• Orderflow: Long‑term net selling (daily CVD negative), but recent 4H CVD and CMF show absorption and buy‑side interest at $0.16.
• Derivatives: OI rising, funding slightly negative, moderate short leverage, but overall neutral positioning.
• Volatility: High but compressing, with 1h TTM Squeeze active and 4H CHOP elevated, indicating choppy consolidation.
• Correlation: XLM is strongly correlated with BTC and equities, so broader market moves are a key contextual driver for its path.

This snapshot frames XLM as bearishly trending on higher timeframes, consolidating and absorbing flow around $0.16, within a supportive macro crypto environment but weak altcoin breadth.