XRPUSDT Market Structure Snapshot: Spot-Led Flows in a Bearish Trend at $1.44

XRPUSDT is trading at $1.44 within a macro risk-on crypto environment, yet its own multi-timeframe structure remains bearish. Below is a concise overview of the most important data-driven elements.

1. Macro Regime & Cross-Asset Context

• Regime: RISK ON (Score 0.40), Strategy: BUILDPOSITIONS, MMS Score: 10.70, Pattern: healthygrowth.
• Key Triggers:
  • spot dominance bullish
  • VIX strong_up 20.37 (+20.37%)
  • SPX up +2.46%, NDX +2.93%
  • BTC +2.59%, ETH +1.27%
  • GOLD up +3.06%
• Dominance:
  • USDT DOM: sideways (-0.09%)
  • BTC DOM: sideways (+0.55%)
  • ETH DOM: sideways (-0.04%)
• Alt Breadth (AB): BULL, 0.02 (Powerlvl1) – mildly positive altcoin breadth.
• Stablecoin Pressure (SPI): BULL, -0.34 – net pressure from stablecoins into crypto.
• Dominance Price Conflict (DPC): NEUTRAL (0.46) – no strong conflict between dominance and price.
• Crypto Equity Weight (CEW): CORRELATED (1.00) – crypto aligned with equities.

Takeaway: The broader crypto environment is constructive and spot-led, with risk-on behavior in large caps and equities, but this does not override XRP’s own bearish technical structure.

2. Derivatives, Leverage & Orderflow

Leverage & OI

• Leverage Pressure (LPI): MODERATE SHORT LEVERAGE, Value -1.53, Funding -5.3261%, OI Δ 0.44% – framework indicates moderate short-side leverage.
• OI Delta (OID): MODERATEBULLISHLVL_2, Value 0.81 – OI changes aligned with bullish price behavior in this metric.
• FOP Index: SPOT DOMINANCE BULLISH, Value -0.37, Fund -25.56, OI +0.63%, P +1.30% – spot trading is leading, with negative funding and modest OI/price increases.

4H OI & Funding

• OI Change (24h): +3.70%
• Latest Funding: -0.000234%, Avg -0.000125%
• Market State: Neutral

OI has risen from ~255M to ~262M, with slightly negative but tiny funding, indicating incremental positioning without extreme funding pressure.

1D OI & Funding

• OI Change (24h): +12.74%
• Latest Funding: -0.000042%, Avg -0.000027%
• Market State: Neutral

Daily OI remains elevated vs earlier in the week, with mildly negative funding.

Orderflow & CVD

4H:

• CVD Trend: Falling, Net Delta -$57.2M
• Buy/Sell Ratio: 49.6% Buy / 50.4% Sell
• Recent deltas alternate but net is negative, indicating slight sell dominance.

1D:

• CVD Trend: Falling, Net Delta -$461.5M
• Buy/Sell Ratio: 48.8% Buy / 51.2% Sell
• Persistent net selling over days.

Liquidations

• Alternating long and short liquidation peaks, with XRP featuring in both:
  • Notable XRP liquidations: $253k (longs), $120k (shorts), $143k (longs), $97k (shorts) at different times.
• Indicates both sides have been stressed at various points.

Takeaway: Derivatives data show spot-led conditions, moderate short leverage, rising OI, and persistent net selling (falling CVD), all within a Neutral labeled derivatives state.

3. Price Structure, Trend, Levels & Volume Profile

Trend & Correlation

• Live Price: $1.44
• 4H Trend: Downtrend (LH + LL) – clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows.
• 1D Structure: Symmetrical Triangle (LH + HL) – contracting pattern with lower highs and higher lows.
• BTC Correlation (4H): 0.88, Beta 1.24, Expected Move 0.41%, Actual vs Expected +0.28% – XRP is strongly BTC-correlated and tends to move more than BTC.

Support & Resistance

Price $1.44 sits between R1 and S1, closer to S1 $1.21.

Fibonacci Levels

4H Fib:

• 61.8%: $1.48
• 50%: $1.41
• Price $1.44 is between these two levels.

1D Fib:

• 23.6%: $1.42
• 38.2%: $1.61
• Price $1.44 is just above $1.42 and below $1.61.

Volume Profile & NPOCs

4H Volume Profile:

• POC: $1.56
• VAL: $1.38
• VAH: $1.89
• HVN: $1.20
• LVN: $1.92

4H NPOCs:

• $1.55, $1.27

1D Volume Profile:

• POC: $1.88
• VAL: $1.75
• VAH: $2.26
• HVN: $1.33
• LVN: $1.87

Price $1.44 is:

• Below both 4H and 1D POCs, and below daily VAL $1.75.
• Slightly above 4H VAL $1.38 and daily HVN $1.33.

Takeaway: XRP trades below major volume concentration levels, within a 4H downtrend and daily triangle, and is highly correlated to BTC.

4. Trend Tools, EMAs, Oscillators, Squeeze & SMC

EMAs & Trend

4H EMA Distance:

• EMA 8: $1.43 (+0.59%)
• EMA 20: $1.44 (+0.52%)
• EMA 50: $1.52 (-4.84%)
• EMA 200: $1.78 (-18.87%)

4H EMA Slope:

• EMA 8 & 20: Slightly positive slopes
• EMA 50, 100, 200: Negative slopes
• Trend: Bearish (20 < 50)
• Macro: Bearish (50 < 200)

1D EMA Distance:

• Price is below all major EMAs:
  • EMA 8: $1.51 (-4.63%)
  • EMA 20: $1.69 (-14.40%)
  • EMA 50: $1.86 (-22.59%)
  • EMA 200: $2.21 (-34.74%)

1D EMA Slope:

• All EMAs have negative slopes.
• Trend: Bearish (20 < 50)
• Macro: Bearish (50 < 200)

Oscillators

• 1h: RSI 55.2, Stoch 66.7, MFI 62.7 – mid-to-slightly-elevated.
• 4h: RSI 50.1, Stoch 49.7, MFI 64.9 – neutral RSI/Stoch, higher MFI.
• 1d: RSI 34.2, Stoch 36.9, MFI 33.6 – low 30s.
• 1w: RSI 33.8, Stoch 7.4, MFI 19.7 – low oscillator readings on weekly.

TTM Squeeze

• 1h: active – volatility compression on the 1h timeframe.

Smart Money Concepts

• FVG: 1.7% (Sup) @ $1.43 – a supportive fair value gap near current price.
• 4h Price Action Event: ADX🔴 @ $1.45 – recent ADX event.
• 1w Price Action Event: CHoCH 🔴 @ $1.77 – weekly Change of Character.

Divergences

• 4H: Bullish OBV divergence on 05-02-26.
• 1D: No divergence signals.

Japanese Candlesticks

• No candlestick patterns detected for XRP in the dataset.

Takeaway: Trend tools show consistent bearish higher-timeframe structure, with short-term EMAs stabilizing, low higher-timeframe oscillators, and a 1h TTM Squeeze signaling local volatility compression.

5. Indicator-Level Technical Stats (Key Highlights)

4H Bar Dynamics

• Price: Slight intrabar recovery (close +0.69%) despite lower open/high/low.
• Volume: -20.85% vs previous bar – reduced activity.
• ATR: Slightly lower – marginally less volatility per bar.
• MACD: Still negative but moving closer to zero; histogram nearly flat.
• Bollinger Bands: Slight upward shift and mild expansion.
• ADX: 28.98 (-5.89%) – trend strength easing, with -DI rising and +DI falling.
• CMF: Turned positive (0.02) from negative (-0.02).
• CHOP: 64.87 (+22.19%) – more choppy conditions.
• HV/HV%: High but slightly easing (HV 72.12, HV% 98.67).

1D Bar Dynamics

• Price: Wide range (open +21.01%, low +24.04%), but close -3.18% vs prior close.
• Volume: -61.26% – sharp drop in daily volume.
• MACD: Negative; histogram less negative (+13.27%).
• Bollinger Bands: All bands shifted lower; bandwidth +4.62% – wider downward envelope.
• ADX: 46.30 (+4.71%) – strong and strengthening trend intensity; -DI >> +DI.
• CMF: Slightly more negative (-0.09).
• CCI: Still negative but less extreme (-110.50).
• ZSCORE20: -1.48 – price well below 20-period mean.
• HV/HV%: Very high and stable (HV 137.19, HV% 92.76).

Overall: XRP trades in a high-volatility, strongly trending daily environment, with bearish EMA alignment, spot-led flows, moderate short leverage, and persistent net selling, all while remaining tightly correlated to BTC.