SOL at $87.53: Key Market Structure Signals in a High‑Correlation, Deleveraging Environment

SOLUSDT is trading at $87.53 within a macro RISK ON regime and a healthy_growth crypto backdrop, while derivatives and structural data show a deleveraging, high‑volatility environment tightly linked to BTC.

1. Macro & Sentiment Snapshot

• Regime: RISK ON (Score 0.40) with MMS Score 10.70, labeled as a good environment for crypto.
• Alt Breadth (AB): BULL, 0.09 (Powerlvl1) – constructive but modest altcoin breadth.
• Stablecoin Pressure (SPI): BULL, -0.41 – stablecoin dynamics supportive for crypto.
• Leverage Pressure (LPI): MODERATE SHORT LEVERAGE, Value -1.53, Funding -5.3261%, OI Δ 0.44% – moderate short‑side leverage.
• FOP Index: NEUTRAL (-0.67) with small OI increase and slightly negative price/funding components.
• Dominance Price Conflict (DPC): NEUTRAL (0.47) – no strong dominance/price conflict.
• Crypto Equity Weight (CEW): CORRELATED (1.00) – strong alignment with equities.
• Macro context: SPX +2.46%, NDX +2.93%, BTC +2.65%, ETH +1.39%, while VIX 20.37 (+20.37%) and GOLD +3.06% show elevated hedging/safe‑haven demand.
• SOL ETF flows: Mixed, with sizeable outflows (-12.6M on 2026‑02‑06, -11.3M on 2026‑01‑30) and inflows (+5.5M on 2026‑02‑02, +2.9M on 2026‑02‑05), indicating active repositioning.

2. Derivatives, Orderflow & Correlation

• BTC Correlation (4H): 0.95, Beta 0.98, Actual vs Expected Move +0.41% – SOL is moving very closely with BTC.
• CVD (4H): Falling, Net Delta -$71.23M, 49.8% Buy / 50.2% Sell – slight net selling with alternating intraday delta spikes.
• CVD (1D): Falling, Net Delta -$1.23B, 48.7% Buy / 51.3% Sell – persistent net selling over recent days.
• Open Interest (4H): OI Change (24h) -11.93%, OI around 9.3–9.4M, funding slightly negative – deleveraging with mild short‑leaning funding.
• Open Interest (1D): OI Change (24h) -11.04%, OI down from 10.7M to 9.3M over several days, funding near zero but negative – consistent OI contraction.
• LPI / OID / FOP: Combined picture of moderate short leverage, neutral OI delta, and neutral futures/options posture.
• Global liquidations: SOL appears in both long and short liquidation clusters, with notable SOL liquidations at $277,768 (shorts, 18:30) and $93,027 (longs, 15:25) on 08‑02‑26, indicating two‑sided liquidation activity.

3. Trend, Structure & Key Levels

• 4H Trend: Downtrend (LH + LL) with recent swings:
  • LHs at $119.12, $106.12, $89.84, $89.20.
  • LLs at $96.40, $95.95, $67.50.
• 1D Trend: Uptrend (HH + HL) with highs up to $148.74 and higher lows, but EMAs now bearish.
• Support & Resistance:
  • R3 $115.69, R2 $102.15, R1 $95.11
  • S1 $74.53, S2 $60.99, S3 $53.94
• Fibonacci (4H): Price at $87.53 sits between 38.2% ($86.10) and 50% ($91.84) of the 4H swing.
• Fibonacci (1D): Near 23.6% ($86.67) of the larger daily swing, below 38.2% ($98.53).
• Volume Profile (4H):
  • POC $102.94, VAL $78.40, VAH $116.57.
  • SOL trades inside 4H value, closer to VAL.
• Volume Profile (1D):
  • POC $131.55, VAL $115.54, VAH $152.90.
  • SOL trades well below daily VAL and POC, outside main daily value.
• NPOCs (4H): $94.38 (above), $76.71 (below).
• LTLB (4H): Last top $89.84 (-1.59%), last bottom $84.16 (+5.05%).
• LTLB (1D): Last top $128.34 (-31.75%), last bottom $67.50 (+29.76%).
• Divergences: No current 4H signals; bullish OBV divergence on 26‑01‑26 (1D).

4. Momentum, Oscillators, Candles & SMC

• Oscillators:
  • 1H: RSI 55.4, Stoch 82.0, MFI 49.7 – mid‑to‑high intraday momentum.
  • 4H: RSI 47.7, Stoch 84.1, MFI 68.2 – neutral RSI, elevated Stoch and MFI.
  • 1D: RSI 29.8, Stoch 33.0, MFI 23.4 – weak daily momentum and money flow.
  • 1W: RSI 32.8, Stoch 4.0, MFI 29.8 – soft weekly momentum.
• TTM Squeeze: Active on 1H, indicating near‑term volatility compression.
• Candlestick Patterns:
  • 1D: Liqgrab Bull and Wickrev Bull at $87.46 (2 bars ago).
  • 1W: Evening Bear at $118.85 (2 bars ago).
• Smart Money Concepts:
  • FVG (Res): 0.3% @ $88.66, just above current price.
  • 1W BOS 🔴: $116.88 (1 bar ago) – recent weekly bearish break of structure.

5. EMAs, Bands, Technical Stats & Volatility

• 4H EMAs:
  • Price near EMA 8 ($87.51, +0.02%), slightly below EMA 20 ($87.92, -0.44%), well below EMA 50 ($94.84, -7.71%) and EMA 200 ($115.68, -24.33%).
  • Slopes: EMA 8 and 20 slightly positive, EMA 50/100/200 negative.
  • Trend: Bearish (20 < 50), Macro Bearish (50 < 200).
• 1D EMAs:
  • Price below EMA 8 ($94.83, -7.69%), EMA 20 ($108.59, -19.39%), EMA 50 ($122.26, -28.40%), EMA 200 ($151.06, -42.06%).
  • All slopes negative, with steeper declines on shorter EMAs.
  • Trend: Bearish (20 < 50), Macro Bearish (50 < 200).
• 4H Technicals (latest vs previous):
  • Close +0.73%, lower low, volume -6.81%, ATR -1.07%.
  • MACD/Signal less negative, histogram slightly lower.
  • Bollinger bandwidth -2.44%, mild narrowing.
  • ADX 43.66 (strong trend), -DI 26.49 > +DI 16.81.
  • Supertrend 89.45, DIR -1 – bearish.
  • CHOP 69.86 – choppy conditions.
  • CMF 0.00 (from -0.03), ZSCORE20 0.96, HV 51.21, HV% 97.55 – high realized volatility.
• 1D Technicals (latest vs previous):
  • Close +0.15%, much higher low, volume -62.01%, ATR -3.34%.
  • MACD/Signal more negative, histogram less negative.
  • Bollinger bands shifted lower, bandwidth +3.55% – expanded volatility around a lower mean.
  • ADX 51.19, -DI 41.52 >> +DI 4.30 – strong negative trend component.
  • Supertrend 110.12, DIR -1 – bearish and above price.
  • DVWAP 86.98 (+6.60%), close to spot; WVWAP/MVWAP slightly above price.
  • CMF -0.08 (from -0.13), CCI -117.12 (from -161.35) – still negative but less extreme.
  • ZSCORE20 -1.52, HV 114.20, HV% 91.94 – elevated volatility with moderated downside deviation.

Need‑to‑Know Takeaways

• Macro: RISK ON regime with healthy alt breadth and bullish stablecoin pressure, but elevated VIX and strong gold.
• Derivatives: OI down ~11%, funding slightly negative, moderate short leverage, and strongly negative CVD on both 4H and 1D.
• Structure: 4H downtrend inside a 1D uptrend, with SOL below major daily value (POC/VAL) but inside 4H value, near Fibonacci retracements and short‑term EMAs.
• Correlation: BTC correlation 0.95, beta 0.98 – SOL is tightly coupled to BTC moves.
• Trend & Volatility: Bearish EMA stacks, bearish Supertrend on both 4H and 1D, high ADX, and elevated realized volatility.
• Patterns & Oscillators: Mixed signals – bullish daily wick patterns, bearish weekly Evening pattern, oversold‑leaning daily oscillators, and an active 1H TTM Squeeze.

These elements together describe a high‑volatility, high‑correlation environment for SOL, with deleveraging derivatives, strong trend metrics, and multi‑timeframe structural complexity around the current $87.53 price zone.