AVAX Market Structure Snapshot: Bearish Macro, High BTC Correlation, Elevated Volatility

AVAXUSDT trades at $9.27 within a bearish macro and technical environment, closely tracking BTC and showing high volatility and persistent net selling flows, while intraday metrics highlight active but structurally constrained price action.

1. Macro & Sentiment Overview

• Market Regime: RISK OFF (Score -0.60), SMALLPOSITIONS strategy, with mixedsignals between crypto and macro.
• Key Triggers: perp speculation warning, vix elevated watch, spx bullish trend, gold safe haven bid, macro crypto divergence.
• Cross‑Asset Context:
  • VIX: 20.37, strong_up (+20.37%)
  • SPX: +2.46%
  • GOLD: +2.47%
  • BTC: -1.64%, ETH: +1.46%
  • TOTAL 1: -0.22%, TOTAL 2: +1.67%, TOTAL 3: +1.84%
• Alt Breadth (AB): BEAR, -0.02
• Stablecoin Pressure (SPI): BEAR, 0.19
• Crypto Equity Weight (CEW): DECOUPLED (-1.00) — crypto is decoupled from equities.
• Dominance Price Conflict (DPC): MILD ALIGNMENT (0.79).
• ETF Dashboard: No explicit ETF data provided.

Takeaway: The dataset describes a risk‑off macro backdrop, with bearish alt breadth, bearish stablecoin pressure, and crypto decoupled from equities, even as equities and gold trade higher.

2. Price Structure, Trend & Key Levels

• Live Price: $9.27

Support & Resistance

AVAX trades below R1 ($9.90) and above S1 ($8.04), near the mid‑band of this range.

Trend

• 4H: Downtrend (LH + LL) with a recent LL at $7.55 and LH at $9.48.
• 1D: Broadening formation (HH + LL) with HH at $14.95 and multiple lower lows.
• EMAs (4H):
  • Price slightly above EMA 8 ($9.11, +1.75%) and EMA 20 ($9.22, +0.58%).
  • Below EMA 50 ($9.80, -5.36%) and EMA 200 ($11.58, -19.98%).
  • Trend: Bearish (20 < 50), Macro: Bearish (50 < 200).
• EMAs (1D):
  • Price below all EMAs:
    • EMA 8: -5.45%
    • EMA 20: -15.18%
    • EMA 50: -24.73%
    • EMA 200: -46.59%
  • All daily EMA slopes are negative, confirming a downward macro trend.

Fibonacci Levels

• 4H Fib: Price near 50% ($9.30) between $7.55–$11.05, inside 38.2–61.8% ($8.89–$9.71).
• 1D Fib: Price near 23.6% ($9.30) of the $7.55–$14.95 range, below 38.2% ($10.38).

Volume Profile & NPOC

4H Volume Profile:

• AVAX trades inside the 4H value area, slightly above POC ($9.07).

4H NPOCs:

• $10.92, $9.93, $8.26 — untested prior POCs above and below current price.

1D Volume Profile:

• AVAX trades well below daily POC and VAL, near the HVN at $9.04.

1D NPOC: None active.

3. Volatility, Momentum & Oscillators

Volatility

4H:

• ATR: 0.37 (slightly down -2.21%).
• HV: 47.01 (+0.51%), HV%: 92.24 (+0.45%).
• Volume: +313.01% on the latest bar (to 2.19M).

1D:

• ATR: 0.89 (+9.98%).
• HV: 102.80 (+18.89%), HV%: 79.29 (+45.91%).

Summary: Daily metrics show elevated and rising volatility, with large ranges and high HV, while 4H volatility is high but more stable.

Oscillators

• Short‑term (1H/4H): Mixed to moderately positive momentum.
• Higher‑timeframe (1D/1W): Oscillators are near lower ranges, especially MFI and weekly Stoch.

MACD & Trend Filters

4H:

• MACD: -0.21, Signal: -0.30, Histogram: 0.08 (less negative).
• ADX: 50.63 (strong trend), +DI 18.45, -DI 27.14 (negative direction still dominant).
• Supertrend DIR: -1 (bearish).

1D:

• MACD: -1.04, Signal: -0.81, Histogram: -0.23 (less negative).
• ADX: 46.32 (strong trend), +DI 5.18, -DI 39.50 (strong negative dominance).
• Supertrend DIR: -1 (bearish).

Bands, VWAPs & Other Stats

4H:

• Bollinger Width: 0.20 (down -7.65%), indicating narrowing bands.
• VWAP cluster: DVWAP 9.19, WVWAP 9.24, MVWAP 9.30 — all near current price.
• CMF: -0.17 (negative, but improving).
• CCI: 25.23 (moved from negative to positive).
• CHOP: 39.67 (more choppy).
• ZSCORE20: 0.32 (slightly above mean).

1D:

• Bollinger Width: 0.45 (slightly narrower).
• VWAPs: DVWAP 8.77, WVWAP 9.22, MVWAP 9.30 — above or near price, drifting lower.
• CMF: -0.11 (negative, improving).
• CCI: -142.17 (deeply negative, but less extreme).
• CHOP: 29.10 (less choppy, more directional).
• ZSCORE20: -1.49 (price below 20‑period mean, less extreme than before).

TTM Squeeze & Candles

• TTM Squeeze (1H): Active, indicating volatility compression on the hourly timeframe.
• Japanese Candlestick Patterns: None detected in the dataset.

4. Correlation, Orderflow & CVD

BTC Correlation

• Correlation (4H): 0.99
• Beta: 0.94
• Expected Move: 0.30%
• Actual vs Expected: +0.68%
• Lag Signal: JA
• Catch‑up Probability (internal metric): 98.5%

AVAX is tightly coupled to BTC on 4H, with similar magnitude of moves and slightly larger realized movement than the model’s expectation.

Orderflow & CVD (4H)

• CVD Trend: Falling
• CVD Net Delta: $-5,080,664
• Buy/Sell Ratio: 49.8% Buy / 50.2% Sell
• CVD Divergence: Consistent

Recent 4H deltas are mostly negative, with one positive bar, indicating net aggressive selling over the short term.

Orderflow & CVD (1D)

• CVD Trend: Falling
• CVD Net Delta: $-68,551,263
• Buy/Sell Ratio: 48.7% Buy / 51.3% Sell
• CVD Divergence: Consistent

Daily CVD shows persistent net selling across recent sessions, with one notable positive day.

5. Derivatives, Leverage & Structural Metrics

Leverage & OI

• Leverage Pressure (LPI): MODERATE SHORT LEVERAGE, Value -1.19.
• Funding (LPI context): -3.1832%.
• OI Δ (LPI context): -0.33%.
• OI Delta (OID): NEUTRALLVL0, Value 0.23.

4H OI & Funding:

• OI Change (24h): -0.13%.
• Latest Funding: 0.000099%.
• Avg Funding: -0.000042%.
• Market State: Neutral.

1D OI & Funding:

• OI Change (24h): +16.58%.
• Latest Funding: -0.000086%.
• Avg Funding: -0.000080%.
• Market State: Neutral.

Overall, derivatives data show:
– Moderate short‑leaning leverage,
– Neutral funding near zero,
– Small 4H OI decrease but larger 1D OI increase, all classified as Neutral in the provided labels.

Smart Money Concepts & Structure

• FVG: 1.7% (Sup) @ $9.10 — a supportive fair value gap near current price.
• Events: No Signals.
• LTLB 4H: Last Top $9.48, Last Bottom $8.91, RR Short 1.59, RR Long 0.63.
• LTLB 1D: Last Top $10.34, Last Bottom $8.24, RR Short 0.98, RR Long 1.02.
• Divergences: Bullish volume divergence on 25‑01‑26 (1D); no 4H divergences.

Need‑to‑Know Summary

• Macro: RISK OFF, with elevated VIX, SPX and GOLD up, and crypto decoupled from equities (CEW -1.00).
• Alt Complex: Bearish breadth (AB -0.02) and bearish stablecoin pressure (SPI 0.19).
• Trend: 4H downtrend, 1D broadening formation, all daily EMAs sloping down, with price well below EMA 20/50/200.
• Levels: AVAX at $9.27 sits:
  • Between R1 $9.90 and S1 $8.04,
  • Near 4H POC $9.07, 1D HVN $9.04, and Fib 23.6–50% ($9.30).
• Volatility: High and rising on 1D (HV 102.80, ATR 0.89), with 4H volatility elevated but stable.
• Momentum: Short‑term oscillators are mixed to mildly positive, while daily/weekly oscillators are near lower ranges.
• Flow: CVD is strongly negative on both 4H and 1D, with consistent net selling.
• Derivatives: Moderate short leverage, neutral funding, small 4H OI dip but notable 1D OI increase, all labeled Neutral.
• Correlation: AVAX is tightly coupled to BTC (0.99 correlation, 0.94 beta), indicating BTC behavior is a key driver of AVAX’s realized moves.
• Structure: Price trades inside 4H value, below 1D value, with NPOCs at $9.93, $10.92, $8.26 and a supportive FVG at $9.10 shaping the current structural landscape.