XRPUSDT Structural Snapshot: XRP Trades at Support in a Risk-Off Crypto Environment

Overview

XRPUSDT is trading at $1.54, sitting directly on immediate 4H support and just above key Fibonacci and daily structural lows. The broader crypto and macro backdrop is classified as RISK OFF, with multiple indicators across spot, derivatives, and cross-asset metrics aligning around a pressured environment, without any directional forecast implied.

1. Macro Regime & Market Sentiment

• Regime: RISK OFF, MMS Score -1.60, Pattern: down_trend, Strategy: DEFENSIVE.
• Alt Breadth (AB): BEAR, Value -2.07 (Powerlvl2) – broad altcoin weakness.
• Stablecoin Pressure (SPI): BEAR, Value 2.40 – stablecoin flows aligned with pressure on crypto.
• Leverage Pressure (LPI): MODERATE SHORT LEVERAGE, Value -0.79, Funding 5.0567%, OI Δ 0.61% – moderate short-side leverage.
• OI Delta (OID): MODERATEBEARISHLVL_-1, Value -2.41 – OI changes skewed bearish.
• FOP Index: PRICE LED BEARISH, Value -0.28, Fund -2.81, OI +1.01%, Price -2.39% – price weakness leads the composite.
• Dominance Price Conflict (DPC): NEUTRAL (-0.41) – no strong dominance-price tension.
• Crypto Equity Weight (CEW): CORRELATED (1.00) – crypto moves closely with equities.

Macro context:

• VIX: 18.88, strong_up (+18.88%) – higher equity volatility.
• NDX: -1.47%, SPX: -0.35%, DOLLAR: +0.36% – risk-off tilt.
• TOTAL 1–3: -3.75% to -4.16%, BTC -2.77%, ETH -2.65% – broad crypto weakness.

2. XRP Price Structure, Trend & Key Levels

Spot & Levels

• Live Price: $1.54
• Support & Resistance:
  • R1: $1.65, R2: $1.69, R3: $1.75
  • S1: $1.54 (current price), S2: $1.48, S3: $1.44

XRP trades right on S1 and close to the 4H/1D Fibonacci 0% level at $1.50.

Trend

• 4H Trend: Downtrend (LH + LL) with a sequence of lower highs and lows.
• 1D Trend: Symmetrical Triangle (LH + HL), but EMAs and momentum are bearish.

Fibonacci

• 4H Fib: 0% $1.50, 23.6% $1.61, 38.2% $1.67, up to 100% $1.94.
• 1D Fib: 0% $1.50, 23.6% $1.72, 38.2% $1.85, up to 100% $2.42.

Price is just above $1.50 on both scales.

EMAs & Slope

4H EMA Distance:

• EMA 8 $1.58 (-2.47%), EMA 20 $1.61 (-4.25%), EMA 50 $1.69 (-8.94%), EMA 200 $1.88 (-18.05%).

4H EMA Slope: All negative; Trend: Bearish (20 < 50), Macro: Bearish (50 < 200).

1D EMA Distance:

• EMA 8 $1.70 (-9.20%), EMA 20 $1.82 (-15.48%), EMA 50 $1.94 (-20.69%), EMA 200 $2.24 (-31.31%).

1D EMA Slope: All negative; Trend: Bearish, Macro: Bearish.

Volume Profile & Structure

4H Volume Profile:

• POC $1.57, HVN $1.58, VAL $1.53, VAH $1.89, LVN $1.92.
• Price is between VAL $1.53 and POC $1.57, below the main value area.

1D Volume Profile:

• POC $2.18, VAH $2.28, VAL $1.87, HVN $1.93, LVN $1.87 – all well above current price.

NPOC: None active on 4H or 1D.

Patterns & Smart Money Concepts

• TTM Squeeze (4H): active – volatility structure engaged.
• Candles (4H): Outside Bear and Evening Bear at $1.59, 3 bars ago.
• SMC:
  • FVG (Res) at $1.58 (1.6%) – fair value gap resistance above price.
  • 1W CHoCH 🔴 at $1.77, 1 bar ago – weekly bearish structural shift in this framework.

LTLB Structure

• 4H: Last top $1.61 (-3.57%), last bottom $1.53 (+1.79%).
• 1D: Last top $1.95 (-18.85%), last bottom $1.50 (+5.08%).

3. Derivatives, Orderflow & CVD

Global Liquidations (Market-Wide)

• Multiple peaks dominated by long liquidations, e.g.:
  • 04-02-26 13:35: $4.10M total, $4.10M longs, $0 shorts, led by ETH, SOL, BTC.
  • 03-02-26 21:50: $1.82M total, all longs.

These reflect broader market stress, not XRP-specific data.

XRP Orderflow & CVD

4H CVD:

• Trend: Falling, Net Delta -$115.77M, Buy/Sell 49.0% / 51.0%.
• Recent deltas mostly negative, with a single positive bar at $+2.72M.

1D CVD:

• Trend: Falling, Net Delta -$520.45M, Buy/Sell 48.7% / 51.3%.
• Majority of days show negative delta, with one positive day ($+16.53M).

Open Interest & Funding

4H OI/Funding:

• OI Change (24h): -10.94%, Latest Funding -0.000142%, Avg -0.000021%, State: Neutral.
• OI within the 4H window rises from 219.334M to 226.839M, while funding drifts slightly negative but remains near zero.

1D OI/Funding:

• OI Change (24h): -3.84%, Latest Funding 0.000043%, Avg -0.000005%, State: Neutral.
• OI declines from 267.156M to 219.049M over several days; funding oscillates around zero.

Leverage & OI Composites:

• LPI: MODERATE SHORT LEVERAGE (-0.79).
• OID: MODERATEBEARISHLVL_-1 (-2.41).
• FOP Index: PRICE LED BEARISH, with Price -2.39%, Fund -2.81, OI +1.01%.

4. Momentum, Oscillators & Trend Strength

Oscillator Scanner

• 1H: RSI 43.8, Stoch 46.7, MFI 33.4.
• 4H: RSI 34.9, Stoch 32.9, MFI 27.9.
• 1D: RSI 27.5, Stoch 15.6, MFI 21.7.
• 1W: RSI 33.8, Stoch 7.4, MFI 19.7.

All higher timeframes show low oscillator readings, consistent with a momentum profile tilted to the downside in this framework.

4H Technical Highlights

• ADX 56.96 (+1.15%) – very strong trend strength.
• +DI 6.92 (-7.70%), -DI 33.04 (+4.11%) – negative directional dominance.
• Supertrend: -1 (bearish) at $1.68, moving lower.
• Volume: +48.40% vs prior bar.
• MACD & Signal: Both negative; histogram magnitude decreases.
• Bollinger Bandwidth: 0.06 (-1.16%) – slight narrowing.
• CMF 0.15 (+122.09%) – positive money flow on latest bar.
• CCI -205.50 (-22.56%) – deeply negative.
• CHOP 57.06 (-10.32%) – less choppy, more directional.
• HV 27.71 (+1.24%), HV% 66.43 (+0.51%) – modestly higher realized volatility.

1D Technical Highlights

• ADX 37.05 (+5.96%) – strong trend strength.
• +DI 7.47 (-7.11%), -DI 34.21 (-6.51%) – negative DI still dominant.
• Supertrend: -1 (bearish) at $1.91.
• MACD -0.11, Signal -0.07, histogram stable at -0.04 – persistent downside momentum.
• Bollinger Bandwidth 0.33 (+4.20%) – bands widening around a falling midline ($1.87).
• CMF -0.09 (+15.58%) – negative but improving.
• CCI -157.94 (+11.28%) – still negative, slightly less extreme.
• CHOP 38.94 (+0.54%) – slightly more choppy.
• HV 51.57 (+0.39%), HV% 39.18 (+1.21%) – modest uptick in realized volatility.

Divergences

• 4H Div: No signals.
• 1D Div: No signals.

5. Correlation & Cross-Asset Linkages

BTC Correlation (4H)

• Correlation (Pearson): 0.88 – strong positive correlation with BTC.
• Beta: 0.86 – XRP tends to move slightly less than BTC in this framework.
• Expected Move: -0.25%, Actual vs Expected: +0.95% – realized move modestly deviates from BTC-implied expectation.
• Lag Signal: JA, Catch-up Probability: 87.5% – indicates historically tight co-movement in this model.

Crypto-Equity Interaction

• CEW: CORRELATED (1.00) – crypto and equities move closely together.
• Macro backdrop: VIX up, NDX and SPX down, Dollar up, aligning with the RISK OFF regime.

Structural Overlays

• Weekly CHoCH 🔴 at $1.77 – weekly structural shift flagged as bearish.
• FVG (Res) at $1.58, overlapping with 4H POC/HVN – micro-structural resistance zone above current price.
• DPC NEUTRAL (-0.41) – no dominance-price conflict flagged.

Key Takeaways

• XRPUSDT trades at $1.54, directly on 4H support (S1) and just above $1.50 Fibonacci and daily bottom references.
• The environment is broadly risk-off, with Alt Breadth BEAR, SPI BEAR, moderate short leverage (LPI), and a PRICE LED BEARISH FOP Index.
• Trend tools (EMAs, ADX, DI, Supertrend) on both 4H and 1D classify the structure as bearish, with price below all major EMAs.
• Orderflow shows falling CVD and net negative deltas on both 4H and 1D, while daily OI has been declining with neutral funding.
• XRP is strongly correlated with BTC (ρ 0.88) and equities (CEW 1.00), embedding it within a cross-asset risk-off regime.
• No divergence signals are present, and TTM Squeeze is active on 4H, indicating engaged volatility dynamics without a specified direction in the dataset.