Bitcoin Market Snapshot: BTC Trades Below Value as Risk-Off Regime Holds

Bitcoin is quoted at $73,457.58, with the market data showing a short-term downtrend, risk-off sentiment, and strong correlation with equities, while longer-term structures still reflect a prior uptrend undergoing a deep retracement.

1. Regime, Sentiment & Cross-Asset Context

• MMS Regime: RISK OFF, MMS Score -1.60, Pattern: down_trend, Strategy: DEFENSIVE.
• Context:
  • VIX: 18.84 (+18.84%), DOLLAR: +0.33%.
  • NDX: -1.51%, SPX: -0.38%.
  • TOTAL 1/2/3: -3.93% / -4.87% / -4.93%.
  • BTC: -3.04%, ETH: -3.15%.
• Alt Breadth (AB): BEAR, Value -2.31 (Powerlvl2) – broad altcoin weakness.
• Stablecoin Pressure (SPI): BEAR, 2.65 – stablecoin flows aligned with risk-off conditions.
• Dominance Price Conflict (DPC): RISK OFF CONFIRMATION (-0.70).
• Crypto Equity Weight (CEW): 1.00 – CORRELATED, indicating strong linkage to equity moves.

2. Derivatives, ETF Flows & Orderflow

ETF Flows

• Recent flows show large swings:
  • 2026-02-02: +561.8M inflow.
  • 2026-02-03: -272.0M outflow.
  • Late January includes multiple large outflows (e.g., -817.8M, -509.7M).

Futures & Perps

• Leverage Pressure (LPI): BALANCED, Value -0.46, Funding 5.0567%, OI Δ 0.61%.
• OI Delta (OID): MODERATEBEARISHLVL_-1, Value -1.85.
• FOP Index: PRICE LED BEARISH, Value -0.19, with Price -3.04%, Fund 5.06, OI +0.61%.

Open Interest & Funding

• 4H:
  • OI Change (24h): +1.04% (0.089M → 0.094M).
  • Funding: near zero (0.000042% latest).
  • Market State: Neutral.
• 1D:
  • OI Change (24h): -6.05% (0.099M → 0.089M over days).
  • Funding: oscillating around zero (-0.000010% latest).
  • Market State: Neutral.

Orderflow & CVD

• 4H CVD:
  • Trend: 📉 Falling, Net Delta -$1.25B.
  • Buy/Sell: 49.2% Buy / 50.8% Sell.
  • Recent deltas show large negatives followed by positive flows at lower prices.
• 1D CVD:
  • Trend: 📉 Falling, Net Delta -$5.26B.
  • Buy/Sell: 48.9% Buy / 51.1% Sell.
  • Multiple strongly negative daily deltas as price moved from $78,741.09 to $73,456.13.

Liquidations

• All listed peaks are long-dominated:
  • Example: $4.10M total at 04-02-26 13:35, 100% long liquidations.
• BTC, ETH, and SOL are repeatedly among the top liquidated coins.

3. Trend, Structure & Key Levels

Trend

• 4H: Downtrend (LH + LL), with the latest low at $72,945.50.
• 1D: Uptrend (HH + HL) historically, with last HH at $97,924.49, but current price is far below that high.

Support & Resistance

• Resistance:
  • R1: $79,239.00
  • R2: $82,211.00
  • R3: $85,330.00
• Support:
  • S1: $73,147.00 (near current price)
  • S2: $70,028.00
  • S3: $67,055.00

Fibonacci Context

• 4H Range: $90,600.00 → $72,169.00
  • Current price near the 0–23.6% zone, close to the lower end.
• 1D Range: $97,924.49 → $72,945.50
  • Current price near the 0% end, indicating a deep retracement.

Smart Money Concepts & Patterns

• FVG: 2.4% resistance at $75,666.00.
• Weekly BOS: Bearish at $80,600.00 (1 bar ago), signaling a weekly structural break.
• 4H Candlestick: Evening Bear at $76,017.25, 3 bars ago.
• LTLB 4H:
  • Last Top: $79,360.00 (-6.85%)
  • Last Bottom: $72,945.50 (+1.34%)
• LTLB 1D:
  • Last Top: $90,600.00 (-16.37%)
  • Last Bottom: $90,128.44 (-15.93%)

Volume Profile & NPOC

• 4H Volume Profile:
  • POC: $88,800.22, VAL: $77,712.74, VAH: $93,420.00.
  • BTC trades below VAL and POC.
• 1D Volume Profile:
  • POC: $88,060.11, VAL: $82,392.13, VAH: $95,617.41.
  • BTC is well below the daily value area.
• NPOC:
  • 4H: None active.
  • 1D: $66,698.33 and $62,224.00 as lower untested POCs.

4. Momentum, EMAs, Oscillators & Volatility

EMAs

4H EMA Price Distance:

• EMA 8: $75,658.58 (-2.91%)
• EMA 20: $77,249.10 (-4.91%)
• EMA 50: $80,672.20 (-8.94%)
• EMA 200: $87,020.06 (-15.59%)

4H EMA Slope: all negative, with Trend: Bearish (20 < 50) and Macro: Bearish (50 < 200).

1D EMA Price Distance:

• EMA 8: $81,016.88 (-9.33%)
• EMA 20: $85,390.14 (-13.97%)
• EMA 50: $88,831.61 (-17.31%)
• EMA 200: $97,362.50 (-24.55%)

1D EMA Slope: all negative, with Trend: Bearish (20 < 50) and Macro: Bearish (50 < 200).

Oscillators

• 1H: RSI 39.3, Stoch 38.0, MFI 26.2.
• 4H: RSI 29.0, Stoch 24.4, MFI 32.0.
• 1D: RSI 25.6, Stoch 15.5, MFI 35.7.
• 1W: RSI 32.4, Stoch 3.1, MFI 30.1.

All timeframes show low oscillator readings, especially on daily and weekly.

Volatility & Trend Strength

• TTM Squeeze: No squeeze detected.
• 4H:
  • ADX: 61.09 (very strong trend).
  • Bollinger Bandwidth: 0.08 (+10.56%) – bands widening.
  • ATR: 1,795.47 (+1.24%) – slightly higher intraday range.
• 1D:
  • ADX: 34.34 (+6.43%) – strengthening daily trend.
  • Bollinger Bandwidth: 0.27 (+7.04%) – expanding bands.
  • ATR: 3,484.57 (+6.48%) – increasing daily range.

Divergences & Correlation

• 4H Divergences: No signals.
• 1D Divergences: Bullish OBV divergence on 26-01-26 (historical).
• BTC Correlation: Reflected via CEW = 1.00 CORRELATED, indicating tight linkage to equities in this dataset.

5. Key Takeaways

• BTC trades at $73,457.58, below major EMAs and below value areas on both 4H and 1D volume profiles.
• The environment is firmly risk-off, with AB BEAR, SPI BEAR, DPC risk-off confirmation, and strong equity correlation.
• Short-term structure is decisively bearish, with 4H downtrend, bearish EMAs, strong ADX, and Evening Bear candlestick.
• Daily structure still reflects a prior uptrend, but price is now near the lower end of the recent Fibonacci range and far below the last HH.
• Derivatives metrics show falling CVD, dominant long liquidations, moderate bearish OI Delta, and neutral funding, indicating pressure without extreme leverage imbalance.
• ETF flows are large and two-sided, with the latest data showing a significant outflow (-$272.0M) after a large inflow (+$561.8M).
• Oscillators are low, volatility is expanding, and trend strength is elevated, describing a strong, active directional environment without a TTM squeeze signal.