SOL Market Snapshot: Risk-Off Regime, Strong BTC Link, And ETF Absorption Near $100

SOLUSDT trades at $99.96, positioned below all major EMAs and outside the main daily value area, in a market characterized by risk-off macro conditions, strong BTC correlation, and ETF-linked absorption signals.

1. Macro Regime & Cross-Asset Context

• Market Regime: RISK OFF (score -0.80), with MMS Score 1.00 and absorption_phase pattern.
• Interpretation: The system flags ABSORPTION – price is falling while “SMC is buying (BTC ETF buying)”.
• Macro Backdrop:
  • VIX: 17.45 (+17.45%) – volatility higher.
  • SPX: -1.00%, NDX: -1.89% – equities softer.
  • GOLD: +3.06% – safe-haven bid.
• Crypto Complex:
  • TOTAL 1: -3.17%, TOTAL 2: -2.49%, TOTAL 3: -1.26%.
  • BTC: -3.56%, ETH: -5.31%.
• Alt Breadth (AB): BEAR (-2.97, Powerlvl2) – broad altcoin weakness.
• Stablecoin Pressure (SPI): BEAR (3.24) – stablecoin flows aligned with pressure on risk assets.
• Crypto Equity Weight (CEW): 1.00 (CORRELATED) – crypto trading in line with equity risk.

2. Price Structure, Key Levels & Volume

• Spot Price: $99.96.
• Support & Resistance:
  • R1: $117.02, R2: $129.16, R3: $139.49.
  • S1: $94.54, S2: $84.20, S3: $72.06.
• 4H Trend: Downtrend (LH + LL) from $128.34 high to $95.95 low.
• 1D Trend: Labeled Uptrend (HH + HL), but EMAs and weekly structure are bearish.
• Fibonacci Positioning:
  • On both 4H and 1D swings, price sits just above the 0% low ($95.95) and below the first retracement (23.6%), i.e., in the lower band of the recent range.
• 4H Volume Profile:
  • POC: $102.22, VAL: $98.04, VAH: $125.20.
  • Price is near VAL and below POC, trading at the lower edge of 4H value.
• 1D Volume Profile:
  • POC: $134.00, VAL: $119.73, VAH: $143.51.
  • SOL trades well below daily VAL and POC, indicating repricing into low-volume territory.
• NPOC (1D): $84.35 – untested volume control below current price.

3. Trend, Momentum & Volatility

• EMA Positioning (4H):
  • Price is below EMA 8 ($103.51), 20 ($105.80), 50 ($112.72), 200 ($125.67).
  • All slopes negative, with bearish EMA stack (20 < 50, 50 < 200).
• EMA Positioning (1D):
  • Price is 11–35% below EMA 8, 20, 50, 200.
  • EMAs are bearishly stacked and sloping down.
• Oscillators:
  • RSI: 4H 35.4, 1D 30.8, 1W 32.8 – momentum on the weaker side.
  • MFI: 1D 31.0, 1W 29.8 – money flow tilted toward selling.
• Trend Strength:
  • 4H ADX: 60.40 with -DI 31.62 > +DI 7.52 – strong downside trend.
  • 1D ADX: 39.89 with -DI 37.60 > +DI 7.43 – strong daily downtrend.
• Volatility:
  • 4H Bollinger Band Width: 0.13, down -23.06% – volatility compression.
  • 1D Bollinger Band Width: 0.41, up +4.89% – expanding daily volatility.
  • TTM Squeeze (1h): active, consistent with short-term compression.
• Patterns & SMC:
  • Weekly Evening Bear at $118.85 (2 bars ago).
  • Weekly BOS 🔴 at $116.88 – structural break lower.
  • Daily OBV bullish divergence (26-01-26) – volume stronger than price at that point.

4. Orderflow, Derivatives & BTC Correlation

• BTC Correlation (4H):
  • Correlation: 0.99, Beta: 1.65.
  • Actual vs Expected Move: -0.55% vs 0.11% expected – recent underperformance vs correlation model.
• Orderflow & CVD (4H):
  • CVD Net Delta: -$423.2M, falling.
  • Buy/Sell: 48.5% / 51.5% – slight sell dominance.
  • Recent deltas mostly negative, with one positive 4H bar amid selling.
• Orderflow & CVD (1D):
  • CVD Net Delta: -$1.46B, falling.
  • Buy/Sell: 48.7% / 51.3%.
  • Multiple days of strong negative deltas, with one positive day (02-02-26).
• Open Interest & Funding (4H):
  • OI Change (24h): -8.72%.
  • Funding: slightly negative (~-0.0001–0.0002%).
  • Market State: Neutral – no extreme leverage imbalance.
• Open Interest & Funding (1D):
  • OI Change (24h): -10.51% (10.543M → 9.475M).
  • Funding: slightly negative across days.
• Leverage Pressure (LPI):
  • MODERATE SHORT LEVERAGE, value -1.33, funding -0.5092%, OI Δ -3.93%.
• FOP Index:
  • LOW ACTIVITY BEARISH, value -0.82, Fund -17.97, OI -1.99%, P -4.21%.
• OI Delta (OID):
  • MODERATEBEARISHLVL_-1, value 8.39, indicating bearish-aligned OI changes.
• Global Liquidations:
  • Alternating long and short peaks.
  • SOL appears in top liquidated coins with $84,344, $8,938, and $6,089 notional at different times, participating in broader BTC/ETH-driven liquidation waves.

5. ETF Flows, Absorption & Structural Takeaways

• SOL ETF Flows:
  • 2026-01-30: -11.3M (large outflow).
  • 2026-02-02: +5.5M (fresh inflow).
  • Prior days show mixed but mostly positive flows.
• MMS Triggers: Include “extreme BTC ETF inflow”, “spot dominance bullish”, and “absorption detected”, linking ETF and spot flows to buying into weakness.
• Dominance Price Conflict (DPC): NEUTRAL (0.08) – no major conflict between dominance shifts and price.
• Stablecoin & Alt Context:
  • AB BEAR (-2.97) and SPI BEAR (3.24) place SOL within a broader altcoin derisking regime.
• Key Structural Picture:
  • SOL trades around $100, below all major EMAs, and under daily value zones.
  • Trend metrics (ADX, DI, Supertrend) confirm strong downside structure.
  • Orderflow and CVD show sustained aggressive selling, while ETF inflows, lower wicks, and OBV divergence point to ongoing absorption attempts near current levels.
  • BTC correlation at 0.99 and Beta 1.65 mean SOL’s path is tightly coupled to BTC, with amplified moves.

This snapshot captures a SOL market under structural downside pressure, trading in low-volume territory below prior value, with short-leaning but controlled derivatives, strong BTC linkage, and ETF/spot absorption activity concentrated around the $95–105 zone.