ETHUSDT Market Structure Snapshot: Spot-Led Strength in a Bearish Macro Frame

Live Price: $2,115.97

ETH currently trades in a spot-driven, short-term recovery zone while remaining inside a broader higher-timeframe downtrend. The environment is labeled Risk On for crypto overall, but ETH’s own structure shows ETF outflows, strong BTC correlation, and elevated volatility.

1. Macro Context, Sentiment & Flows

• Market Sentiment (MMS V2):

  • Regime: RISK ON, MMS Score 10.70, Pattern: healthy_growth.
  • Triggers: spot dominance bullish, SPX up (+2.46%), NDX up (+2.93%), VIX strong_up (20.37, +20.37%), Gold up (+3.06%).
  • BTC +2.61%, ETH +1.39%, while TOTAL2 (-0.07%) and TOTAL3 (-0.35%) show weaker smaller-cap performance.

• Alt Breadth (AB): BULL, 0.08 (Powerlvl1) – mild positive alt participation.

• Stablecoin Pressure (SPI): BULL, -0.40 – stablecoin behavior supportive of crypto in this model.

• Leverage Pressure (LPI): MODERATE SHORT LEVERAGE, -1.58, funding -5.9108%, OI Δ +0.23% – derivatives skewed toward short-side pressure in this metric.

• OI Delta (OID): MODERATEBULLISHLVL_2, 0.32 – constructive OI change relative to price.

• FOP Index: SPOT DOMINANCE BULLISH, 0.02, with funding -5.91 and OI +0.23% – spot markets leading.

• Dominance Price Conflict (DPC): NEUTRAL (0.46) – no strong conflict between dominance and price.

• Crypto Equity Weight (CEW): CORRELATED (1.00) – ETH aligned with equity-style risk assets.

ETH ETF Dashboard

Recent flows are predominantly negative:

• Large outflows: -252.9M (Jan 30), -155.7M (Jan 29), -80.8M (Feb 5), -79.4M (Feb 4), -21.3M (Feb 6).
• Only one recent inflow: +14.0M (Feb 3).

This shows persistent ETF redemptions despite the Risk On classification and spot-led strength.

2. Trend, Structure, Key Levels & Volume Profile

Trend

• 4H: Downtrend (LH + LL) from $3,045.78 down to $1,747.80, with current price in a recovery segment.
• 1D: Symmetrical Triangle (LH + HL) but with bearish EMA stack and Supertrend -1.
• Weekly: CHoCH 🔴 at $2,623.57 and Dcconfirm Bear at $2,816.89 – weekly structure flagged as bearish.

Support & Resistance

• Resistance: R1 $2,178, R2 $2,302, R3 $2,515.
• Support: S1 $1,840, S2 $1,627, S3 $1,502.
• Price at $2,115.97 sits between S1 and R1, in a mid-range zone.

Fibonacci Context

• 4H Fib: Price lies between 38.2% ($2,090.31) and 50% ($2,196.11) of the recent swing.
• 1D Fib: Price is just below 23.6% ($2,138.40) and above 0% ($1,747.80), in the lower part of the larger range.

Volume Profile & NPOCs

4H Volume Profile:

• POC: $2,029.97 (price above).
• VAL: $1,804.23, VAH: $2,368.57.
• HVN: $2,400.63, LVN: $2,959.88.

1D Volume Profile:

• POC: $2,880.20, VAL: $2,691.47, VAH: $3,352.03.
• HVN: $1,920.87, LVN: $3,091.05.

NPOCs:

• 4H: $2,188.27, $1,891.82.
• 1D: $2,451.95.

ETH trades above 4H POC but below daily VAL and POC, indicating short-term acceptance vs long-term discount.

Smart Money Concepts & Candles

• FVG Support: 1.7% (Sup) at $2,090.01, close to 4H 38.2% Fib.
• 1D Candlestick: Liqgrab Bull at $2,063.38 (2 bars ago) – bullish liquidity grab in this model.
• 1W Candlestick: Dcconfirm Bear at $2,816.89 (2 bars ago) – weekly bearish confirmation.
• 1W CHoCH 🔴 at $2,623.57 – weekly structural shift.

3. Derivatives, Orderflow, CVD, OI, Funding & Liquidations

Orderflow & CVD

4H:

• CVD Trend: Falling, Net Delta -$534.2M.
• Buy/Sell: 49.6% Buy / 50.4% Sell.
• Signal: Bearish CVD divergence (Price Up, CVD Down) – price recovery with net selling in this metric.

1D:

• CVD Trend: Falling, Net Delta -$4.79B.
• Buy/Sell: 48.9% Buy / 51.1% Sell.
• Divergence: Consistent – longer-term net aggressive selling.

Open Interest & Funding

4H:

• OI Change (24h): -4.44%.
• Funding: Latest -0.000066%, Avg -0.000032%.
• State: Neutral – low funding, modest OI reduction.

1D:

• OI Change (24h): -10.81%.
• Funding: Latest -0.000006%, Avg -0.000001%.
• State: Neutral – significant de-leveraging with near-flat funding.

Combined with LPI: MODERATE SHORT LEVERAGE and OID: MODERATEBULLISHLVL_2, this shows de-leveraging, slight short-side pressure, and spot-led price action.

Global Liquidations

• Multiple peaks between $630k–$1.25M total liquidations.
• ETH frequently among top liquidated coins (e.g., $665,882, $617,601, $490,882, $422,168).
• Both long and short clusters appear, indicating two-sided liquidation activity.

4. Momentum, EMAs, Volatility & Correlation

Oscillators

• 1H: RSI 59.2, Stoch 77.2, MFI 49.7 – mildly positive intraday.
• 4H: RSI 52.3, Stoch 92.0, MFI 81.3 – short-term momentum and money flow elevated.
• 1D: RSI 31.3, Stoch 26.1, MFI 31.4 – daily oscillators in lower ranges.
• 1W: RSI 34.5, Stoch 2.4, MFI 33.5 – weekly momentum depressed.

EMAs & Trend

4H:

• Price above EMA 8 ($2,094.87, +1.01%) and EMA 20 ($2,085.34, +1.47%).
• Price below EMA 50 ($2,222.17, -4.78%) and EMA 200 ($2,690.11, -21.34%).
• Slopes: 8 & 20 EMAs up, 50/100/200 EMAs down.
• Trend: Bearish (20 < 50), Macro Bearish (50 < 200).

1D:

• Price below all EMAs: 8, 20, 50, 200 by 4–34%.
• All daily EMAs sloping down.
• Trend: Bearish (20 < 50), Macro Bearish (50 < 200).

Volatility & Trend Tools

4H Technical Stats:

• Volume -34.02%, ATR -1.88% – lower short-term activity and range.
• MACD -20.13 (improving), MACDHIST slightly lower – momentum stabilizing.
• ADX 37.91 (down from 40.04) – strong but easing trend strength.
• Supertrend-DIR -1 – 4H still bearish.
• CMF 0.01 (from -0.02) – slight positive capital flow.
• CHOP 64.55 (+11.14%) – high choppiness, range-like.
• HV% 98.67 – very high volatility.

1D Technical Stats:

• Volume -45.65%, ATR -2.68% – lower daily activity and range.
• MACD -277.94, MACDHIST improving – negative but stabilizing.
• ADX 47.24 (+4.24%) – strong trend strength.
• Supertrend-DIR -1 – daily trend bearish.
• CMF -0.05 (from -0.10) – negative but improving.
• CHOP 20.27 – trending with some increase in noise.
• HV% 99.39 – extreme volatility.

BTC Correlation

• Correlation (4H): 0.96
• Beta: 1.02
• Expected Move: 0.34%
• Actual vs Expected: +0.52%
• Lag Signal: JA, Catch-up Probability 96.1% (model).

ETH is tightly coupled to BTC, with slightly higher sensitivity.

5. Additional Structure, Divergences & Pattern Summary

• Divergences:
  • 4H: None.
  • 1D: Bearish OBV divergence on 28-01-26, aligning with subsequent downside.
• LTLB (4H): Last Top $2,119.46 (very close to current), Last Bottom $2,064.10, indicating a tight local range.
• LTLB (1D): Last Top $3,045.78 (-31.48%), Last Bottom $1,747.80 (+19.41%), placing ETH midway in a broader corrective structure.
• TTM Squeeze (1H): Active, signaling volatility compression intraday.

Key Takeaways (Need-to-Know)

• Macro: Crypto is in a Risk On regime with spot dominance bullish, but ETH faces persistent ETF outflows and strong BTC correlation (0.96).
• Trend: Short-term stabilization above 4H EMAs and POC, but daily and weekly trends remain firmly bearish, with price below all major EMAs and daily value.
• Flows: Spot-led move, derivatives de-leveraging, slightly negative funding, and CVD net negative on both 4H and 1D.
• Structure: ETH trades between S1 ($1,840) and R1 ($2,178), near 4H 38.2–50% Fib and FVG support at $2,090.01, while still below daily VAL and POC.
• Volatility: Extremely high (HV% ~99%), with 1H TTM Squeeze active and 4H choppiness elevated, indicating compressed intraday volatility inside a high-vol regime.
• Patterns: Daily Liqgrab Bull and 4H CMF > 0 support short-term resilience, while weekly Dcconfirm Bear, weekly CHoCH 🔴, and daily OBV bearish divergence underscore the larger corrective backdrop.

This combination defines ETH as short-term supported and spot-driven, yet embedded in a broader bearish macro structure with high volatility and strong BTC linkage.