AVAXUSDT Market Structure Snapshot: Strong Bearish Trend in a Risk-On Crypto Environment

AVAXUSDT is trading at $9.15, embedded in a strong, multi-timeframe bearish trend, while the broader crypto environment is labeled risk-on with healthy growth.

1. Macro Regime & Cross-Market Context

• Market Sentiment & Strategy (MMS V2):
  • Regime: RISK ON (0.40)
  • MMS Score: 10.70, healthy_growth pattern
  • Crypto majors are positive: BTC +2.67%, ETH +1.41%, TOTAL1 +1.24%.
• Alt Breadth (AB): BULL, 0.09 (Powerlvl1) – mild positive breadth.
• Stablecoin Pressure (SPI): BULL, -0.42 – stablecoin flows are supportive for crypto.
• Leverage Pressure (LPI): MODERATE SHORT LEVERAGE, -1.53, with strongly negative funding (-5.3261%) in that block and slight OI Δ +0.44% – indicates short-side leverage presence.
• OI Delta (OID): NEUTRALLVL0, -0.06 – no strong directional OI shift.
• FOP Index: NEUTRAL, -0.32 – mildly negative funding and slightly positive OI, but not extreme.
• Dominance Price Conflict (DPC): NEUTRAL (0.49) – no major conflict between dominance and price.
• Crypto Equity Weight (CEW): CORRELATED (1.00) – crypto and crypto-equity risk are aligned.
• Macro Backdrop:
  • SPX: +2.46%
  • VIX: 20.37 (+20.37%), elevated
  • GOLD: +3.06%
  • USDT/BTC/ETH dominance: sideways

Takeaway: The broader environment is risk-on for crypto, with mildly bullish alt breadth and stablecoin pressure, but AVAX’s own structure is decidedly bearish.

2. Trend, Levels & Structure (4H & 1D)

• 4H Trend: Downtrend (LH + LL)
  • Recent structure: HH → HL → LH → LL → LH, confirming a downtrend.
• 1D Pattern: Broadening Formation (HH + LL) – expanding range with higher highs and lower lows.
• Support & Resistance:
  • R1: $9.90, R2: $10.62, R3: $11.76
  • S1: $8.04, S2: $6.89, S3: $6.18
  • Price at $9.15 is below R1 and above S1.
• Fibonacci (4H):
  • 50%: $9.08, 61.8%: $9.44 – price sits just above 50%, below 61.8%.
• Fibonacci (1D):
  • 23.6%: $9.30 – AVAX trades slightly below this level, in the lower quarter of the recent major swing.
• Smart Money Concepts:
  • FVG Support: 1.1% @ $9.10 – a structural support zone just below current price.
• LTLB Structure:
  • 4H: Last Top $9.48, Last Bottom $8.91 – AVAX trades within this micro-range.
  • 1D: Last Top $10.34, Last Bottom $7.55 – AVAX is closer (in % terms) to the last top than the last bottom.

Takeaway: AVAX is firmly in a 4H downtrend and within a broadening daily pattern, trading in the lower segment of its recent daily range.

3. EMAs, Volume Profile & Trend Strength

• 4H EMAs vs Price ($9.15):
  • EMA 8: $9.17 (-0.27%)
  • EMA 20: $9.20 (-0.60%)
  • EMA 50: $9.67 (-5.34%)
  • EMA 200: $11.44 (-20.05%)
• 4H EMA Slopes:
  • EMA 8: +0.08% (slightly up)
  • EMA 20/50/100/200: all negative slopes
  • Trend: Bearish (20 < 50), Macro Bearish (50 < 200).
• 1D EMAs vs Price:
  • EMA 8: $9.68 (-5.44%)
  • EMA 20: $10.77 (-15.02%)
  • EMA 50: $12.19 (-24.97%)
  • EMA 200: $17.28 (-47.04%)
• 1D EMA Slopes: all negative, confirming strong bearish macro trend.
• Volume Profile (4H):
  • POC: $9.70, HVN: $9.72, VAL: $8.84, VAH: $11.21
  • Price is below POC/HVN, above VAL, within the value area.
• Volume Profile (1D):
  • POC: $14.03, VAH: $16.02, VAL: $11.54, HVN: $9.04
  • AVAX trades well below POC/VAL, near HVN $9.04.
• Naked POCs (4H): $10.92, $9.93, $8.26 – unresolved volume levels above and below current price.
• Trend Strength (ADX & Supertrend):
  • 4H ADX: 39.53, -DI 27.37 > +DI 17.25, Supertrend DIR: -1 (bearish)
  • 1D ADX: 48.50, -DI 37.89 >> +DI 4.97, Supertrend DIR: -1 (bearish)

Takeaway: AVAX is well below all key EMAs with strong bearish trend strength on both 4H and 1D, trading under major long-term volume nodes.

4. Orderflow, Open Interest, Funding & Correlation

• BTC Correlation (4H):
  • Correlation: 0.95
  • Beta: 0.89
  • Actual vs Expected Move: +0.04%
  • Indicates very tight alignment with BTC price behavior.
• 4H CVD & Orderflow:
  • CVD Trend: Falling, Net Delta: $-4,949,771
  • Buy/Sell Ratio: 49.9% Buy / 50.1% Sell
  • Recent deltas are consistently negative, showing net aggressive selling.
• 1D CVD:
  • CVD Trend: Falling, Net Delta: $-57,901,991
  • Buy/Sell Ratio: 48.8% Buy / 51.2% Sell
  • Persistent net selling over time, with one notable positive delta day.
• 4H OI & Funding:
  • OI Change (24h): -5.58%
  • Latest Funding: -0.000066%, Avg: -0.000058%
  • Market State: Neutral
• 1D OI & Funding:
  • OI Change (24h): +14.16%
  • Latest Funding: -0.000030%, Avg: -0.000079%
  • Market State: Neutral
• Global Liquidations:
  • Multiple peaks between $630K–$1.25M, alternating between long-heavy and short-heavy events across BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP.

Takeaway: AVAX exhibits strong BTC correlation, persistent net selling in CVD, and neutral but slightly negative funding, with derivatives activity consistent with a volatile, two-sided broader market.

5. Oscillators, Volatility, TTM Squeeze & Other Technicals

• Oscillators:
  • 1H: RSI 51.8, Stoch 66.7, MFI 58.5 – mid-range.
  • 4H: RSI 47.2, Stoch 66.7, MFI 66.9 – neutral to slightly elevated.
  • 1D: RSI 32.3, Stoch 35.4, MFI 23.5 – weak higher-timeframe momentum and money flow.
  • 1W: RSI 32.4, Stoch 6.3, MFI 22.6 – longer-term weakness.
• TTM Squeeze:
  • 1H: active – intraday volatility compression.
• Volatility (4H):
  • ATR: 0.29 (slightly down)
  • Bollinger Bandwidth: 0.14 (slightly down)
  • HV: 42.99, HV%: 85.92 – high but easing.
  • CHOP: 68.23 – high choppiness, indicating noisy sideways action within the trend.
• Volatility (1D):
  • ATR: 0.86 (down)
  • HV: 101.51, HV%: 77.45 – very high realized volatility, slightly easing.
• Momentum & Flow (4H):
  • MACD: -0.11 (less negative), Histogram: 0.07
  • CMF: -0.13 (improving from -0.17)
  • CCI: 41.12 (positive but cooling)
• Momentum & Flow (1D):
  • MACD: -1.04, Histogram: -0.19 (less negative)
  • CMF: -0.07 (improving from -0.11)
  • CCI: -104.52 (still negative, less extreme)
• Divergences:
  • 4H: None.
  • 1D: Bullish volume divergence on 25-01-26.
• Japanese Candlesticks: No active patterns detected.
• ETF / Equity Context:
  • CEW = 1.00 (CORRELATED) – crypto-equity-linked instruments are aligned with crypto’s risk profile.

Need-to-Know Summary:
AVAX trades at $9.15 in a strong, well-established bearish trend across 4H and 1D, with:

• Price below all major EMAs and long-term volume nodes
• High ADX and bearish Supertrend on both timeframes
• Persistent net selling in CVD and slightly negative funding
• High BTC correlation (0.95), tying AVAX closely to broader market moves
• Intraday volatility compression (1H TTM Squeeze) within a high-volatility, choppy environment

All of this occurs against a macro crypto backdrop labeled risk-on, with healthy growth and supportive stablecoin pressure, while AVAX itself remains positioned in the lower portion of its recent daily range.