XLMUSDT Market Structure Snapshot: Persistent Downtrend Under High BTC Correlation

XLMUSDT is trading at $0.16 within a clear multi-timeframe downtrend, while derivatives, volume, and correlation data show rising participation, high volatility, and strong linkage to BTC. Below is a concise overview of the most critical structural elements.

1. Trend, Levels & Volume Structure

• Trend (4H & 1D):

  • Both timeframes show downtrends with lower highs and lower lows.
  • 4H Trend: Repeated LH/LL sequence between $0.18–$0.14.
  • 1D Trend: From $0.26 (HH) down through $0.25, $0.23, $0.21–$0.20 into current levels.

• EMA Structure:

  • 4H: Price near EMA 8 & 20 (~$0.16), below EMA 50 ($0.17) and EMA 200 ($0.20).
    • Trend: Bearish (20 < 50), Macro Bearish (50 < 200).
  • 1D: Price well below all EMAs:
    • EMA 8: $0.17 (-6.21%)
    • EMA 20: $0.19 (-14.75%)
    • EMA 50: $0.21 (-23.06%)
    • EMA 200: $0.27 (-39.66%)
    • All slopes negative, confirming a firm bearish trend.

• Key Levels:

  • Support: $0.14 (S1), then $0.12 (S2), $0.11 (S3).
  • Resistance: $0.18 (R1), $0.19 (R2), $0.21 (R3).
  • Fibonacci (1D): $0.16 is the 23.6% level, $0.18 the 38.2%, $0.20 the 50%, $0.21 the 61.8%.
  • Volume Profile (4H):
    • POC: $0.17, VAH: $0.18, VAL: $0.14, HVN: $0.15.
    • Current price $0.16 sits inside the 4H value area.
  • Volume Profile (1D):
    • POC: $0.24, VAL: $0.20, VAH: $0.28.
    • XLM is trading below the main historical daily value area.

• Naked POCs (4H): $0.19, $0.17, $0.15 – unretested high-volume levels.

2. Momentum, Volatility & Pattern Signals

• Oscillators:

  • 1H: RSI 53.2, Stoch 61.5, MFI 61.3 – near neutral.
  • 4H: RSI 46.0, Stoch 72.6, MFI 56.8 – mixed, with elevated Stoch.
  • 1D: RSI 33.5, Stoch 36.4, MFI 32.5 – lower-band readings in a downtrend.
  • 1W: RSI 30.9, Stoch 5.6, MFI 28.6 – sustained weakness on the weekly.

• Volatility:

  • 4H:
    • ATR: stable around 0.01 (slight -1.49%).
    • Bollinger Bandwidth: -8.59%, indicating compression.
    • HV: 49.70, HV%: 97.96 – high realized volatility.
  • 1D:
    • ATR: +11.30% to 0.02, higher daily range.
    • Bollinger Bandwidth: +1.05%, slight expansion.
    • HV: 95.88, HV%: 82.35 – elevated volatility.

• Trend Strength:

  • 4H ADX: 50.26 (slightly down from 52.63) – strong trend.
  • 1D ADX: 34.25 (up from 31.46) – strengthening trend.

• MACD & Momentum:

  • 4H MACD: Slightly negative but moving toward zero; histogram +14.40%.
  • 1D MACD: Negative, with histogram moving closer to zero (+13.56%), indicating some easing of bearish momentum.

• Patterns & SMC:

  • Japanese Candlestick Patterns: None detected.
  • 1D Wicks: Long lower wick present on the latest bar.
  • Smart Money Concepts: FVG 1.9% (Sup) @ $0.16, no other SMC events – a small support-oriented fair value gap at current price.
  • TTM Squeeze: Active on 1H, indicating volatility compression on the lower timeframe.

• Divergences:

  • 4H: Bullish OBV divergence on 05-02-26.
  • 1D: Bullish Stoch divergence on 25-01-26.

3. Orderflow, Derivatives & Leverage

• CVD & Flow (4H):

  • CVD Trend: Falling, Net Delta: $-1,199,434.
  • Buy/Sell Ratio: 49.8% Buy / 50.2% Sell – slight sell tilt.
  • Recent deltas show heavy negative prints followed by smaller positives, indicating net selling with some recent buying.

• CVD & Flow (1D):

  • CVD Trend: Falling, Net Delta: $-14,138,070.
  • Buy/Sell Ratio: 49.2% Buy / 50.8% Sell.
  • Several days of strong negative deltas, then two days of positive deltas at $0.16.

• Open Interest & Funding (4H):

  • OI Change (24h): +11.45% – more positions active.
  • Funding: From -0.000218% to 0.000007%, near zero.
  • Market State: Neutral.

• Open Interest & Funding (1D):

  • OI Change (24h): +9.22%.
  • OI rose from 144.989M to 176.557M, then eased to 165.254M.
  • Funding: Slightly positive earlier, then marginally negative (-0.000235%).
  • Market State: Neutral.

• Leverage Pressure (LPI):

  • MODERATE SHORT LEVERAGE, Value -1.19, Funding -3.1832%, OI Δ -0.33% – indicates moderate short-side pressure in the broader derivatives context.

• OI Delta (OID):

  • MODERATEBEARISHLVL_-1, Value 1.03, Align 1.03 – OI changes interpreted as moderately bearish.

• FOP Index:

  • PRICE LED BEARISH, Value -0.03, Fund 5.38, OI -0.89%, P -1.16% – price action leading a bearish derivatives interpretation.

• Global Liquidations:

  • 07-02-26 07:05: $17.0M total liquidations, $17.0M longs vs $3.2K shorts, dominated by BTC/USDT, BNB/USDT, ETH/USDT – a long-heavy stress event in the broader market.

4. Macro Context, Breadth, Dominance & Correlation

• Market Sentiment & Strategy (MMS V2):

  • Regime: NEUTRAL (0.20), Strategy: SMALLPOSITIONS, MMS Score: 5.50, Pattern: mixedsignals.
  • Triggers include perp speculation warning, vix elevated watch, spx bullish trend, gold safe haven bid, macro crypto divergence.

• Macro Snapshot:

  • VIX: 20.37 (+20.37%) – rising volatility.
  • SPX: +2.46%, NDX: +2.93% – equities up.
  • GOLD: +2.47% – safe haven bid.
  • DOLLAR: -0.17%.
  • TOTAL 1: -0.04%, TOTAL 2: +1.69%, TOTAL 3: +1.81%.
  • BTC: -1.41%, ETH: +1.64%.

• Alt Breadth (AB):

  • BULL, Value 0.23 (Powerlvl1) – broad altcoin participation with modest strength.

• Stablecoin Pressure (SPI):

  • BULL, Value -0.08 – stablecoin dynamics interpreted as supportive.

• Dominance Price Conflict (DPC):

  • MILD ALIGNMENT (0.74) – no strong conflict between dominance and price.

• Crypto Equity Weight (CEW):

  • DECOUPLED (-1.00) – crypto prices decoupled from crypto-related equities.

• BTC Correlation (4H):

  • Correlation: 0.97, Beta: 0.90.
  • Expected Move: 0.29%, Actual vs Expected: +0.84%.
  • Lag Signal: JA, Catch-up Probability: 97.3% (within this model).
  • Indicates very tight co-movement with BTC.

• ETF Dashboard:

  • No ETF-specific data provided; no ETF flow interpretation possible from this dataset.

5. Key Takeaways

• XLM is in a strong, confirmed downtrend on both 4H and 1D, trading well below major daily EMAs and below the main daily value area.
• Trend strength (ADX) is high and rising on the daily, while 4H ADX remains elevated.
• Orderflow and CVD show persistent net selling, though recent bars include some positive deltas and bullish divergences (OBV on 4H, Stoch on 1D).
• Open interest is rising with neutral funding, and LPI/OID/FOP collectively describe a moderately bearish, price-led derivatives environment with moderate short leverage.
• Altcoin breadth and stablecoin pressure are bullish, indicating that XLM’s weakness occurs within a broader altcoin environment that is not uniformly weak.
• BTC correlation is extremely high (0.97), making BTC behavior a central structural driver for XLM within this dataset.
• Volatility is elevated (high HV and HV%), with 1H TTM Squeeze and narrowing 4H Bollinger bandwidth pointing to compression on lower timeframes inside a high-volatility backdrop.

This summary encapsulates the current structural state of XLMUSDT based solely on the provided data, without forecasts or directional expectations.