SOLUSDT Market Structure Snapshot: Spot‑Led Bounce in a High‑Volatility Downtrend

SOLUSDT is trading at $88.56, showing a spot‑driven rebound inside a broader bearish structure. The key signals below summarize the most impactful elements of the full report.

1. Macro & Sentiment Overview

• MMS Regime: NEUTRAL (Score -0.20), SMALLPOSITIONS flag, with mixedsignals.
• Macro context:
  • VIX: 20.37 (+20.37%) – elevated volatility.
  • SPX: +2.46%, NDX: +2.93% – equities up.
  • GOLD: +2.47% – safe‑haven bid.
  • DOLLAR: -0.17%.
• Crypto aggregates:
  • TOTAL 1: -0.25%, TOTAL 2: +1.59%, TOTAL 3: +1.43%.
  • BTC: -1.57%, ETH: +1.63%.
• Alt Breadth (AB): BULL, value 0.14 (Powerlvl1) – modest altcoin participation.
• Stablecoin Pressure (SPI): BEAR, value 0.03 – weak stablecoin inflow pressure.
• Crypto Equity Weight (CEW): DECOUPLED (-1.00) – crypto decoupled from crypto‑equity complex.

2. Trend, Levels & Volume Profile

• 4H Trend: Downtrend (LH + LL) with recent swing:
  • Last high: $89.84, last low: $67.50.
• 1D Trend: Labeled Uptrend (HH + HL) historically, but price is far below recent highs ($148.74) and main value area.
• Support & Resistance:
  • R1: $95.11, R2: $102.15, R3: $115.69.
  • S1: $74.53, S2: $60.99, S3: $53.94.
• 4H Volume Profile:
  • POC: $97.84, VAL: $78.53, VAH: $117.15.
  • Price $88.56 is inside value, below POC, closer to VAL.
• 1D Volume Profile:
  • POC: $135.69, VAL: $118.64, VAH: $152.73.
  • Price is well below daily VAL and POC, above daily HVN $78.67.
• NPOCs (4H): $94.38 (above), $76.71 (below).

3. Momentum, Patterns & EMAs

• Candlestick Patterns:
  • 4H: Piercing Bull and Morning Bull at $86.57 (2 bars ago).
  • 1W: Evening Bear at $118.85 (2 bars ago).
• Smart Money Concepts:
  • FVG resistance: $88.66 (0.4%).
  • 1W BOS 🔴 at $116.88 – bearish weekly break of structure.
• Oscillators:
  • 1h: RSI 61.2, Stoch 82.3, MFI 57.7 – short‑term strength.
  • 4h: RSI 46.2, Stoch 86.9, MFI 39.4 – mixed.
  • 1d: RSI 29.7, Stoch 32.8, MFI 19.0 – depressed daily momentum/flow.
  • 1w: RSI 32.8, Stoch 4.0, MFI 29.8 – low weekly readings.
• Divergences:
  • 4H: Bullish volume divergence (04‑02‑26).
  • 1D: Bullish OBV divergence (26‑01‑26).
• EMAs (4H):
  • Price above EMA 8 ($86.24) and EMA 20 ($88.04), below EMA 50 ($96.77) and EMA 200 ($117.41).
  • Short EMAs have slightly positive slopes, longer EMAs negative.
  • Trend flags: Bearish (20 < 50), Macro Bearish (50 < 200).
• EMAs (1D):
  • Price below EMA 8 ($96.89), EMA 20 ($110.80), EMA 50 ($123.67), EMA 200 ($151.70).
  • All slopes negative, confirming daily bearish trend.

4. Derivatives, Orderflow & Correlation

• BTC Correlation (4H):
  • Correlation: 0.98, Beta: 1.03.
  • Expected Move: 0.33%, Actual vs Expected: +1.67%.
  • Indicates very tight linkage to BTC with recent outperformance vs model.
• Orderflow & CVD (4H):
  • CVD Trend: Falling, Net Delta: $-210.8M.
  • Buy/Sell: 49.5% / 50.5%.
  • Recent deltas show alternating flows with two positive bars during the latest bounce.
• Orderflow & CVD (1D):
  • CVD Trend: Falling, Net Delta: $-1.31B.
  • Buy/Sell: 48.6% / 51.4%.
  • Daily deltas consistently negative across recent days.
• Open Interest & Funding (4H):
  • OI 24h: -5.77%, OI around 9.3–9.7M.
  • Funding: slightly negative (-0.000115% to -0.000292%).
• Open Interest & Funding (1D):
  • OI 24h: -8.94%, from 10.766M → 9.761M.
  • Latest Funding: -0.000298%, Avg: -0.000089%.
• Leverage Pressure (LPI): MODERATE SHORT LEVERAGE, value -1.19, funding -3.1832%, OI Δ -0.33%.
• FOP Index: SPOT DOMINANCE BULLISH, value -0.23, Fund -16.86, OI -0.92%, P 1.30% – spot activity leading, derivatives reduced.

5. Volatility, ETF Flows & Additional Diagnostics

• TTM Squeeze: Active on 1h – short‑term volatility compression.
• 4H Volatility & Trend:
  • ATR: 4.05 (slightly down).
  • HV: 54.13, HV%: 98.98 – high realized volatility.
  • ADX: 56.60 – strong trend; +DI rising, -DI still dominant.
  • Bollinger Bandwidth: 0.22, down -8.09% – band contraction.
• 1D Volatility & Trend:
  • ATR: 9.48, +11.65% – expanding daily range.
  • HV: 113.93, HV%: 91.73 – very high realized volatility.
  • ADX: 48.88, +DI 4.47, -DI 43.22 – strong downside trend.
  • CHOP: 18.29 – low choppiness, directional conditions.
• ETF Flows (SOL):
  • Notable outflows: -12.6M (2026‑02‑06), -11.3M (2026‑01‑30).
  • Inflows: +5.5M (2026‑02‑02), +2.9M (2026‑02‑05).
  • Flows are volatile, with no single‑direction pattern in the provided window.
• Global Liquidations:
  • Peak event 07‑02‑26 07:05: $17.0M total, $17.02M longs, $3.2K shorts, concentrated in BTC/USDT.

Core Takeaway

SOL is in a high‑volatility environment with:

• Short‑term spot‑led bounce (4H bullish patterns, improving 4H MACD/CCI, price above short EMAs).
• Persistent higher‑timeframe bearish structure (price far below daily EMAs and POC, strong ADX with dominant -DI, negative CVD, declining OI).
• Very strong BTC correlation (0.98) and moderate short‑side leverage with slightly negative funding.
• Mixed macro backdrop (equities and gold up, VIX elevated, crypto‑equity decoupling, modest alt breadth, weak stablecoin pressure).

This combination defines SOL’s current state as spot‑driven, tightly BTC‑linked, and structurally bearish on higher timeframes, with elevated volatility and non‑uniform ETF and derivatives participation.