ETH Market Structure Snapshot: Neutral Regime, Heavy ETF Outflows, High Volatility

ETHUSDT trades at $2,094.03, in a neutral but stressed environment where macro, derivatives, and ETF data collectively show stabilization after a sharp drawdown, yet higher-timeframe structure and flows remain cautious.

1. Macro, Sentiment & ETF Flows

• Market Sentiment & Strategy (MMS V2):
  • Regime: NEUTRAL (Score -0.20), Strategy: SMALLPOSITIONS, MMS Score: 5.50, pattern: mixedsignals.
  • Triggers: perp speculation warning, VIX strong_up (20.37, +20.37%), SPX up (+2.46%), GOLD up (+2.47%), macro crypto divergence.
• Performance Context:
  • NDX +2.93%, DOLLAR -0.17%.
  • TOTAL 1 -0.30%, TOTAL 2 +1.49%, TOTAL 3 +1.32%.
  • BTC -1.63%, ETH +1.48%.
• Alt Breadth (AB): BULL, 0.02 (Powerlvl1) – mild positive alt participation.
• Stablecoin Pressure (SPI): BEAR, 0.15 – stablecoin flows not strongly supportive.
• Crypto Equity Weight (CEW): DECOUPLED (-1.00) – crypto strongly decoupled from equities.
• Dominance Price Conflict (DPC): MILD ALIGNMENT (0.74) – no major dominance/price conflict.

ETH ETF Dashboard:

• Repeated net outflows:
  • -21.3M (2026-02-06), -80.8M, -79.4M, -2.9M, -252.9M, -155.7M.
  • Only one inflow: +14.0M (2026-02-03).
• This indicates persistent ETF redemption pressure over the recent period.

2. Trend, Structure, Key Levels & Volume

• Price vs Levels:

  • Live Price: $2,094.03.
  • Resistance: R1 $2,178, R2 $2,302, R3 $2,515.
  • Support: S1 $1,840, S2 $1,627, S3 $1,502.
  • Price sits between S1 and R1, closer to the upper half of this band.

• 4H Trend:

  • Downtrend (LH + LL) from $3,045.78 to $1,747.80.
  • Price currently between 4H Fibonacci 23.6% ($1,988.22) and 38.2% ($2,136.95).

• 1D Trend:

  • Symmetrical Triangle (LH + HL) historically, but price now well below prior highs.
  • On the daily swing, ETH is between 0% ($1,747.80) and 23.6% ($2,138.40).

• EMAs (4H):

  • Price above EMA 8 ($2,042.43, +2.53%) and EMA 20 ($2,068.50, +1.23%).
  • Price below EMA 50 ($2,254.20, -7.11%) and EMA 200 ($2,726.40, -23.19%).
  • Trend: Bearish (20 < 50), Macro: Bearish (50 < 200).
  • Short EMAs slope slightly up; longer EMAs slope down.

• EMAs (1D):

  • Price below all major EMAs:
    • EMA 8 $2,251.04 (-6.97%), EMA 20 $2,575.67 (-18.70%), EMA 50 $2,856.61 (-26.70%), EMA 200 $3,218.08 (-34.93%).
  • All daily EMAs have negative slopes, confirming a bearish higher-timeframe structure.

• Volume Profile (4H):

  • POC $2,029.97, VAH $2,368.57, VAL $1,804.23.
  • Price above POC and VAL, below VAH, trading within the 4H value area.

• Volume Profile (1D):

  • POC $2,896.12, VAL $2,704.73, VAH $3,278.89.
  • Price well below VAL and POC, indicating current trading below the main daily value area.

• Naked POCs:

  • 4H: $2,188.27, $1,891.82.
  • 1D: $2,451.95.

3. Momentum, Candles, SMC, Oscillators & Volatility

• TTM Squeeze: 1h active – short-term volatility compression.

• Candlestick Patterns:

  • 4H: Morning Bull at $2,052.54, 2 bars ago.
  • 1W: Dcconfirm Bear at $2,816.89, 2 bars ago.

• Smart Money Concepts:

  • FVG: 4.3% (Sup) @ $2,002.18 – fair value gap labeled as support.
  • 1W CHoCH 🔴 at $2,623.57 – recent weekly structural shift.

• Oscillators:

  • 1h: RSI 61.9, Stoch 76.1, MFI 67.2 – intraday strength.
  • 4h: RSI 48.4, Stoch 91.9, MFI 46.5 – neutral RSI/MFI, high Stoch.
  • 1d: RSI 30.2, Stoch 24.3, MFI 25.8 – near lower bands, reflecting recent downside.
  • 1w: RSI 34.5, Stoch 2.4, MFI 33.5 – longer-term weakness.

• Divergences:

  • 4H: Bullish Volume Divergence on 04-02-26.
  • 1D: Bearish OBV Divergence on 28-01-26.

• 4H Technical Stats Highlights:

  • Volume: +191.35% (500,380 vs 171,744).
  • ATR: +1.60% (93.11).
  • MACD: -61.31 (less negative), histogram +11.53%.
  • Bollinger Bandwidth: 0.19, -10.31% – band contraction.
  • ADX: 52.59 (strong trend), +DI up, -DI down.
  • CMF: -0.01 (improved from -0.05).
  • CCI: 37.24 (from 4.14).
  • CHOP: 49.62 – more choppy.
  • HV: 53.58, HV% 99.80 – high 4H volatility.

• 1D Technical Stats Highlights:

  • Close: +12.95% vs prior day.
  • Volume: +7.68%.
  • ATR: +5.69% (203.61).
  • MACD: -274.10, signal -182.11, histogram less negative.
  • Bollinger Bandwidth: 0.60, +3.91% – expanding daily volatility.
  • ADX: 45.32 – strong trend.
  • CMF: -0.10 (improved from -0.24).
  • CCI: -139.16 (less negative).
  • CHOP: 18.93 – trending environment.
  • HV: 115.46, HV% 99.29 – very high daily volatility.

4. Derivatives, Orderflow, Leverage & Liquidations

• Orderflow & CVD (4H):

  • CVD Trend: Falling, Net Delta -$751.46M.
  • Buy/Sell: 49.6% / 50.4%.
  • Recent deltas include a large negative (-$155.45M) and one positive (+$77.09M), but the overall trend is negative.

• Orderflow & CVD (1D):

  • CVD Trend: Falling, Net Delta -$5.09B.
  • Buy/Sell: 48.9% / 51.1%.
  • Despite some positive daily deltas, the aggregate remains strongly negative.

• Open Interest & Funding (4H):

  • OI Change (24h): +1.14%.
  • Funding: near zero (latest -0.000004%, avg -0.000029%).
  • Market State: Neutral.

• Open Interest & Funding (1D):

  • OI Change (24h): -8.25% – position reduction over the broader window.
  • Funding: 0.000100% latest, 0.000004% avg – neutral.
  • Market State: Neutral.

• Leverage Pressure (LPI):

  • MODERATE SHORT LEVERAGE, Value -0.85, Funding 1.7914%, OI Δ -0.64% in that composite.
• OI Delta (OID):
  • MODERATEBULLISHLVL_2, Value -0.95, Align -0.95 – framework classification with a negative numeric value.

• FOP Index:

  • PRICE LED BULLISH, Value 0.17, Fund 1.79, OI -0.64%, Price +1.48% – price gains with slightly lower OI and elevated funding.

• Global Liquidations:

  • Peak at 07-02-26 07:05:
    • Total: $17.03M.
    • Longs: $17.02M, Shorts: $3,229.
    • ETH/USDT: $257,414 liquidated, dominated by BTC.

5. Correlation & Cross-Market Structure

• BTC Correlation (4H):
  • Correlation: 0.99.
  • Beta: 1.10.
  • Expected Move: 0.35%, Actual vs Expected: +1.54%.
  • Lag Signal: JA, Catch-up Probability: 98.6% (model metric).

• This indicates very tight co-movement with BTC, with ETH typically moving slightly more and recently more volatile than the model expected.

• Alt Breadth (AB): BULL (0.02) – mild altcoin participation.

• SPI: BEAR (0.15) – stablecoin pressure not supportive.
• CEW: DECOUPLED (-1.00) – crypto not tracking equity strength.
• ETF flows: Consistently negative, reinforcing institutional outflow context.

Bottom Line

ETH currently trades in a neutral macro-crypto regime with:

• High volatility, bearish higher-timeframe trend, and price well below major daily EMAs.
• Short-term stabilization above the recent low and within the 4H value area, with 4H momentum metrics improving.
• Persistent ETF outflows, negative CVD, and bearish stablecoin pressure, alongside neutral funding and modest OI changes.
• Very high BTC correlation, meaning ETH’s short-term path remains closely tied to BTC, while its own structural and flow metrics define the zones in which that correlation plays out.