ADAUSDT Market Snapshot: Bearish Structure with High BTC Correlation and Compressed Volatility

ADAUSDT is trading at $0.27, embedded in a multi-timeframe bearish structure with high BTC correlation and elevated but locally compressing volatility. The following points summarize the most critical structural and data-driven elements.

1. Macro & Sentiment Context

• Regime: RISK OFF (Score -0.60, Strategy: SMALL_POSITIONS).
• MMS Pattern: mixedsignals, with:
  • VIX: strongup at 20.37 (+20.37%).
  • SPX: +2.46%, NDX: +2.93%.
  • GOLD: +2.47% (safe haven bid).
  • BTC: -1.64%, ETH: +1.46%.
• Alt Breadth (AB): BEAR, Value -0.02 (Powerlvl1) → slightly negative altcoin breadth.
• Stablecoin Pressure (SPI): BEAR, 0.19 → mild bearish stablecoin pressure.
• Leverage Pressure (LPI): MODERATE SHORT LEVERAGE, Value -1.19, Funding -3.1832%, OI Δ -0.33%.
• OI Delta (OID): NEUTRALLVL0, 0.42.
• FOP Index: NEUTRAL, 0.08 (Fund 8.29, OI -0.61%, P -0.69%).
• Dominance Price Conflict (DPC): MILD ALIGNMENT (0.79).
• Crypto Equity Weight (CEW): DECOUPLED (-1.00) → strong crypto–equity decoupling.
• ETF Dashboard: No explicit ETF metrics provided in the dataset.

2. Trend, Levels & Volume Structure

Trend & EMAs

• 4H Trend: Downtrend (LH + LL) from $0.36 HH to $0.22 LL.
• 1D Trend: Symmetrical Triangle (LH + HL) with lower highs from $0.48 → $0.44 → $0.43 and higher low at $0.34.
• 4H EMAs:
  • Price slightly above EMA 8 & 20 (~$0.27), below EMA 50 ($0.29) and EMA 200 ($0.34).
  • Short EMAs: slightly positive slopes; longer EMAs: negative slopes.
  • Trend: Bearish (20 < 50), Macro: Bearish (50 < 200).
• 1D EMAs:
  • Price below all EMAs: EMA 8 ($0.29) to EMA 200 ($0.53).
  • All slopes negative.
  • Trend & Macro: Bearish.

Key Levels

• Support & Resistance:
  • R3: $0.36, R2: $0.32, R1: $0.30.
  • S1: $0.24, S2: $0.20, S3: $0.18.
• Fibonacci (4H): Price $0.27 between 38.2% ($0.26) and 50% ($0.28).
• Fibonacci (1D): Price at 23.6% ($0.27) between 0% ($0.22) and 38.2% ($0.30).

Volume Profile & NPOC

• 4H Volume Profile:
  • POC: $0.27 (current price).
  • VAL: $0.25, VAH: $0.32.
  • HVN: $0.24, LVN: $0.36.
• 4H NPOCs: $0.33, $0.29, $0.25.
• 1D Volume Profile:
  • POC: $0.41, VAL: $0.28, VAH: $0.46.
  • HVN: $0.25, LVN: $0.36.
• 1D NPOC: None active.

3. Patterns, Oscillators & Volatility

Candles, SMC & TTM Squeeze

• 4H Candlestick Patterns:
  • Piercing Bull at $0.27 (2 bars ago).
  • Morning Bull at $0.27 (2 bars ago).
• Smart Money Concepts:
  • FVG (Res) at $0.28, size 1.4%.
  • Events: No Signals.
• TTM Squeeze: 1H active, indicating hourly volatility compression.

Oscillator Scanner

• 1H: RSI 55.7, Stoch 63.4, MFI 63.6 → mid-to-upper range.
• 4H: RSI 47.9, Stoch 84.8, MFI 45.0 → mixed, with elevated Stoch.
• 1D: RSI 35.4, Stoch 38.5, MFI 43.7 → sub-50 but not extreme.
• 1W: RSI 29.3, Stoch 4.1, MFI 20.3 → low weekly readings.

Divergences

• 4H: No divergence signals.
• 1D: Bullish OBV divergence on 26-01-26.

4. Derivatives, Orderflow & BTC Correlation

BTC Correlation

• Correlation (4H): 0.99.
• Beta: 1.00.
• Expected Move: 0.32%.
• Actual vs Expected: +0.38%.
• Lag Signal: NEE.
• Catch-up Probability: 100.0% (as per metric).

This describes near-perfect positive correlation and 1:1 volatility alignment with BTC in this dataset.

Orderflow & CVD

• 4H CVD:
  • Trend: Falling.
  • Net Delta: $-12,910,549.
  • Buy/Sell: 49.7% / 50.3%.
• 1D CVD:
  • Trend: Falling.
  • Net Delta: $-89,218,832.
  • Buy/Sell: 49.0% / 51.0%.

Both timeframes show negative, falling CVD with a slight sell majority.

Open Interest & Funding

• 4H OI/Funding:
  • OI Change (24h): -17.57%.
  • Latest Funding: 0.000029%.
  • Avg Funding: -0.000042%.
  • Market State: Neutral.
• 1D OI/Funding:
  • OI Change (24h): -17.10%.
  • Latest Funding: -0.000042%.
  • Avg Funding: -0.000007%.
  • Market State: Neutral.

Derivatives data shows shrinking OI, near-flat funding, and a neutral labeled state.

Global Liquidations

• Peak (07-02-26 07:05):
  • Total: $17,025,689.
  • Longs: $17,022,460.
  • Shorts: $3,229.
  • Top Pairs: BTC/USDT ($16,164,206), BNB/USDT ($295,511), ETH/USDT ($257,414).

This reflects a long-heavy liquidation spike, mainly in BTC.

5. Technical Stats & Volatility Profile

4H Technical Highlights

• Volume: +197.52% vs prior 4H candle.
• ATR: Slightly down (-1.83%).
• MACD / Signal / Histogram: All negative, but less negative (positive Δ%).
• Bollinger Bandwidth: -8.53% → band contraction.
• ADX: 48.08 (strong trend), slightly down.
• +DI / -DI: +DI 18.73 (up), -DI 27.57 (down).
• Supertrend-DIR: -1 (bearish).
• CMF: -0.05 (more negative).
• CCI: From -3.40 to 28.57.
• CHOP: 38.22 (moderate choppiness).
• HV: 47.64, HV%: 95.41 → high realized volatility.

1D Technical Highlights

• Price Action: Open 0.25, Low 0.22, Close 0.28 → intraday recovery.
• Volume: +46.01%.
• ATR: +10.97% → wider daily ranges.
• MACD: -0.03, histogram less negative (+17%).
• Bollinger Bands: Mid 0.33, Upper 0.40, Lower 0.25, bandwidth stable.
• ADX: 41.52 (strong trend), +5.82%.
• +DI / -DI: +DI 6.44, -DI 38.30.
• Supertrend-DIR: -1 (bearish).
• WICKLOWERLONG: 1.00 → long lower wick on the current daily bar.
• CMF: From -0.20 to -0.03 (less negative).
• CCI: From -162.94 to -137.67 (still negative).
• CHOP: 30.16 (less choppy, more directional).
• HV: 109.65, HV%: 88.98 → elevated realized volatility.

Net Structural Takeaway

• ADAUSDT is in a bearish EMA and trend regime on both 4H and 1D.
• Price is anchored around the 4H POC at $0.27 and near the 1D VAL at $0.28, with significant volume nodes at $0.25 and $0.24.
• Derivatives show shrinking OI, neutral funding, and falling CVD, while LPI flags moderate short leverage.
• BTC correlation (0.99, beta 1.00) tightly links ADA’s behavior to BTC in this dataset.
• Volatility is elevated overall (ATR, HV, HV%) but locally compressed (4H Bollinger bandwidth, active 1H TTM Squeeze), within a RISK OFF, bearish-breadth environment.