Solana Market Structure Snapshot: Distribution Regime, High Volatility, and BTC-Locked Behavior

Live Price: $86.91

Solana trades in a high-volatility, distribution-labeled environment, tightly correlated to BTC, with spot-dominant flows, negative funding, and recent heavy downside on the daily timeframe, alongside a short-term intraday rebound.

1. Macro Context & Sentiment

• MMS Regime: RISK ON (Score 0.40) with Strategy: REDUCEEXPOSURE and Pattern: distributionphase.
• Interpretation: Price strength coexists with SMC selling and references to BTC ETF selling and perp euphoria.
• Market Backdrop:
  • BTC Dominance: +1.71% (up)
  • USDT Dominance: -0.68% (sideways)
  • VIX: 17.63 (+17.63%, strong_up)
  • SPX: +2.42%, GOLD: +2.83%
  • TOTAL 1/2/3: +9.14% / +4.97% / +2.81%
  • BTC: +11.56%, ETH: +12.63%

SOL operates in a risk-on crypto environment with BTC and ETH leading and elevated but not extreme traditional volatility.

2. Derivatives, Orderflow & Correlation

Correlation

• BTC Correlation (4H): 0.99
• Beta: 0.98
• Expected Move: 3.02%, Actual vs Expected: +0.06%

SOL is almost perfectly locked to BTC’s moves, with realized behavior very close to BTC-implied expectations.

Leverage & Funding

• LPI: MODERATE SHORT LEVERAGE (Value -1.90)
• Funding (LPI context): -14.7584%
• OI Δ: +0.90%
• FOP Index: SPOT DOMINANCE BULLISH (Value -0.08, Fund -60.38, OI 1.42%, P 10.99%)

This combination shows:

• Spot-led activity.
• Persistent negative funding, indicating short-side cost advantage.
• Moderate short leverage presence, even as OI delta is labeled moderately bullish.

Open Interest & Funding

4H View:

• OI Change (24h): +5.32%
• Latest Funding: -0.000857%
• OI fluctuates around ~10M, slightly easing from 10.314M to 9.979M, with funding becoming more negative.

1D View:

• OI Change (24h): -4.93%
• Latest Funding: -0.000353%
• OI rose from ~9.55M to 10.77M, then eased to 10.45M, with funding consistently slightly negative.

Overall, SOL shows active but not extreme derivatives participation, with negative funding across timeframes.

Orderflow & CVD

4H:

• CVD Trend: Falling, Net Delta: -195.7M
• Buy/Sell: 49.5% / 50.5%
• Recent 4H deltas: four positive bars followed by a small negative, with price rising from $79.59 → $87.09 → $86.88.

1D:

• CVD Trend: Falling, Net Delta: -1.45B
• Buy/Sell: 48.6% / 51.4%
• Last four days: negative deltas with price dropping from $104.55 → $78.35, then rebounding to $86.88.

This reflects sustained net selling on higher timeframes, with short-term intraday net buying during the recent rebound.

Liquidations

• Multiple peaks on 06-02-26, with:
  • Short-heavy events at 13:20 ($4.08M total, $4.08M shorts) and 00:50 ($11.58M total, $11.49M shorts).
  • Long-heavy event at 00:10 ($8.85M total, $8.68M longs).
• SOL appears in all peaks, with liquidations between $74.6K and $766.7K.

This indicates two-sided leverage clearance in a high-volatility environment.

3. Trend, Structure & Key Levels

Trend

• 4H: Downtrend (LH + LL) with lower highs/lows from $128.34 → $95.95.
• 1D: Labeled Uptrend (HH + HL) historically, but:
  • Price now far below recent highs ($148.74) and key daily EMAs.
  • Weekly BOS 🔴 at $116.88 and Evening Bear at $118.85 (2 bars ago) indicate weekly bearish structure.

EMAs

4H:

• Price $86.91:
  • Above EMA 8 ($84.13, +3.31%)
  • Below EMA 20 ($89.08, -2.44%), EMA 50 ($99.49, -12.64%), EMA 200 ($119.30, -27.15%)
• Slopes:
  • EMA 8: +1.02% (up)
  • EMA 20/50/100/200: negative slopes
  • Trend: Bearish (20 < 50), Macro Bearish (50 < 200)

1D:

• Price well below all EMAs:
  • EMA 8 ($99.59, -12.73%)
  • EMA 20 ($113.25, -23.26%)
  • EMA 50 ($125.15, -30.55%)
  • EMA 200 ($152.35, -42.95%)
• All daily EMA slopes negative, with steeper declines in shorter EMAs.

Support & Resistance

• R3: $104.06
• R2: $98.65
• R1: $88.93
• S1: $73.81
• S2: $68.40
• S3: $58.68

SOL trades just below R1 ($88.93) and above S1 ($73.81), within a mid-range band.

Fibonacci

4H Swing:

• 38.2%: $88.83
• 23.6%: $80.68
• Price $86.91 lies between $80.68–$88.83, a lower-mid retracement zone.

1D Swing:

• 23.6%: $94.39
• 0%: $77.60
• Price $86.91 lies between $77.60–$94.39, in the lowest retracement band of the larger move.

Volume Profile & NPOCs

4H:

• POC: $101.24
• HVN: $73.90
• LVN: $127.43
• VAH: $118.11
• VAL: $78.75
• NPOC: $94.38

Price is between VAL ($78.75) and POC ($101.24), with a NPOC at $94.38 above.

1D:

• POC: $131.56
• HVN: $85.52
• LVN: $127.38
• VAH: $147.74
• VAL: $115.37
• NPOC: $70.25

Price is near the daily HVN ($85.52) and far below POC ($131.56), with a daily NPOC at $70.25 below.

4. Momentum, Oscillators & Volatility

Oscillators

• 4H: RSI 41.1, Stoch 67.0, MFI 23.0 → Sub-neutral RSI, moderate Stoch, weak MFI.
• 1D: RSI 19.7, Stoch 1.4, MFI 21.0 → Deeply low momentum and weak money inflow.
• 1H: RSI 61.6, Stoch 83.8, MFI 78.3 → Short-term intraday strength.
• 1W: RSI 32.8, Stoch 4.0, MFI 29.8 → Below-neutral weekly momentum.

Volatility

• 4H: ATR 4.73 (+0.55%), HV 52.47 (+5.87%), HV% 98.78 (+1.36%) → High and rising intraday volatility.
• 1D: ATR 8.49 (+7.13%), HV 96.99 (+22.80%), HV% 77.14 (+43.04%) → Strong expansion in daily volatility.
• TTM Squeeze: No squeeze → No compression regime in this metric.

5. Smart Money Concepts, Candles, Breadth & ETF Flows

Smart Money Concepts & Candles

• FVG (Res): 1.8% @ $88.66 → Short-distance resistance zone above price.
• 1W BOS 🔴: $116.88 (1 bar ago) → Weekly bearish break of structure.
• 1W Candlestick: Evening Bear at $118.85 (2 bars ago) → Weekly bearish reversal pattern.

Divergences

• 4H (04-02-26): Bullish Volume Divergence.
• 1D (26-01-26): Bullish OBV Divergence.

These highlight volume-based positive divergences at specific prior points.

Alt Breadth & Stablecoins

• Alt Breadth (AB): BULL (10.47, Powerlvl3) → Strong altcoin participation.
• Stablecoin Pressure (SPI): BULL (-11.25) → Stablecoin dynamics interpreted as supportive.

ETF Flows

Recent SOL ETF flows:

• Inflows: +5.6M (2026-01-28), +5.5M (2026-02-02), +2.9M (2026-02-05)
• Outflows: -2.2M (2026-01-29), -11.3M (2026-01-30), -6.7M (2026-02-04)
• Flat: 0.0M (2026-02-03)

Flows alternate between sizeable inflows and outflows, indicating active ETF participation in both directions.

Key Takeaways

• SOL trades at $86.91, well below major daily EMAs and POC ($131.56), but near a daily HVN ($85.52) and within lower Fibonacci bands.
• The environment is labeled RISK ON but distribution_phase, with spot-dominant flows, negative funding, and moderate short leverage.
• BTC correlation is extremely high (0.99), making SOL’s path closely tied to BTC, with minimal deviation from BTC-implied moves.
• Daily structure shows strong downside momentum and high volatility, while 4H metrics show a short-term rebound (positive MACD histogram, rising +DI, improving CMF).
• ETF flows, CVD, and volume profiles collectively depict a market with active two-sided participation, net selling on higher timeframes, and significant recent repricing from prior highs.