Ethereum Market Structure Snapshot: Distribution, Bearish Trend, and ETF Outflows

Ethereum trades at $2,065.49, just below R1 ($2,071) and well above S1 ($1,736), within a short‑term bounce that sits inside a broader bearish structure. The data collectively describe a distribution environment: price has risen, but higher‑timeframe flows, ETF activity, and trend metrics remain negative.

1. Sentiment, Regime & ETF Flows

• MMS V2 Regime: RISK ON (Score 0.40) with Strategy: REDUCEEXPOSURE and Pattern: distributionphase.
• MMS Interpretation: DISTRIBUTION – price rising while smart money concepts (SMC) show selling, with notes of BTC ETF selling and perp euphoria.
• Alt Breadth (AB): BULL, 11.15 (Powerlvl3) – broad altcoin participation.
• Stablecoin Pressure (SPI): BULL, -11.91 – stablecoin dynamics interpreted as supportive for crypto.
• Leverage Pressure (LPI): MODERATE SHORT LEVERAGE, -0.67, with Funding 2.0279% and OI Δ +2.60% – active leverage with a moderate short tilt in the model’s classification.
• OI Delta (OID): MODERATEBULLISHLVL_2, 35.21 – net positive OI change aligned with price.
• FOP Index: PRICE LED BULLISH, Value 1.45, P +13.53%, OI +2.60%, Fund 2.03 – price leading derivatives metrics.
• Dominance Price Conflict (DPC): NEUTRAL (0.09) – no major conflict between dominance and price.
• Crypto Equity Weight (CEW): CORRELATED (1.00) – strong linkage to equities, consistent with SPX +2.29%, NDX +2.71%.
• ETH ETF Flows: Recent days dominated by outflows:
  • 2026-02-05: -80.8M
  • 2026-02-04: -79.4M
  • 2026-02-02: -2.9M
  • Larger earlier outflows: -252.9M (2026-01-30), -155.7M (2026-01-29)
  • Only two recent inflow days: +14.0M (2026-02-03), +28.1M (2026-01-28)

Takeaway: Sentiment and breadth are risk‑on and alt‑supportive, but ETF flows and SMC point to distribution, with larger players reducing exposure into strength.

2. Trend, Structure & Key Levels

• Live Price: $2,065.49
• Support & Resistance:
  • R1: $2,071.00 (near current price)
  • R2: $2,288.00
  • R3: $2,407.00
  • S1: $1,736.00
  • S2: $1,616.00
  • S3: $1,400.00
• 4H Trend: Downtrend (LH + LL) from $3,045.78 down through $2,396.62, $2,250.00, $2,110.00.
• 1D Trend: Symmetrical Triangle (LH + HL), now trading near the lower end of the range.
• Weekly SMC & Candles:
  • 1W CHoCH 🔴 at $2,623.57 (1 bar ago) – bearish change of character.
  • 1W Dcconfirm Bear at $2,816.89 (2 bars ago) – confirmed bearish weekly pattern.
• Fibonacci (4H):
  • 23.6%: $2,028.92
  • 38.2%: $2,202.84
  • Price is between 23.6% and 38.2%, closer to the lower bound.
• Fibonacci (1D):
  • 0%: $1,818.18
  • 23.6%: $2,192.17
  • Price is below 23.6%, near the lower end of the daily swing.

Takeaway: ETH is in a short‑term bounce near resistance within a 4H downtrend and a bearish weekly structure, trading in the lower portion of its recent daily range.

3. Moving Averages, Volume Profile & Divergences

EMAs (4H)

• Price vs EMAs:
  • EMA 8: $1,987.00 (+3.95% below price)
  • EMA 20: $2,078.55 (-0.63% above price)
  • EMA 50: $2,308.01 (-10.51% above price)
  • EMA 200: $2,767.87 (-25.38% above price)
• Slopes:
  • EMA 8: +1.14% (up)
  • EMA 20/50/100/200: all negative slopes
• Trend Flags: Bearish (20 < 50), Macro Bearish (50 < 200)

EMAs (1D)

• Price is below all major EMAs:
  • EMA 8: -10.38%
  • EMA 20: -21.45%
  • EMA 50: -28.50%
  • EMA 200: -36.05%
• All daily EMAs have negative slopes, with the steepest on EMA 8 (-5.59%).

Volume Profile & NPOC

• 4H Volume Profile:
  • POC: $2,954.18
  • VAL: $2,092.48
  • Price $2,065.49 is just below VAL, far below POC.
• 1D Volume Profile:
  • POC: $2,879.19
  • VAL: $2,686.28
  • Price is well below VAL, outside the main daily value area.
• NPOC:
  • 4H NPOC: $2,188.27 (above price)
  • 1D NPOC: $1,553.04 (well below price)

Divergences

• 4H: Multiple bullish divergences (Volume, MACD, RSI, Stoch) on 03–04-02-26, aligning with the recent bounce.
• 1D: Bearish OBV divergence on 28-01-26, near the late‑January highs.

Takeaway: Short‑term EMAs and divergences support the current bounce, but daily and weekly EMAs, volume profile, and OBV divergence still describe a dominant bearish higher‑timeframe environment.

4. Correlation, Orderflow, Open Interest & Funding

BTC Correlation

• Correlation (4H): 0.99
• Beta: 1.15
• Actual vs Expected Move: +0.76%
• Lag Signal: JA
• Catch‑up Probability: 99.4% (model output)

ETH has been tightly coupled to BTC, with higher volatility (beta > 1).

Orderflow & CVD

4H:

• CVD Trend: Falling
• Net Delta: -$1.14B
• Buy/Sell: 49.5% / 50.5%
• Recent deltas show strong buying during the move from $1,899.42 to $2,065.63, then a small negative delta at $2,069.41.

1D:

• CVD Trend: Falling
• Net Delta: -$5.34B
• Buy/Sell: 48.9% / 51.1%
• Sequence: positive deltas during early decline, a large negative delta on the drop to $1,826.83, then positive delta on the rebound to $2,069.41.

Open Interest & Funding

4H:

• OI Change (24h): +0.36%
• Latest Funding: 0.000060%
• Market State: Neutral
• OI increased from 1.836M to 1.954M, funding oscillated around zero.

1D:

• OI Change (24h): -21.56%
• Latest Funding: -0.000347%
• Market State: Neutral
• OI drifted from 1.990M to 1.871M, with slightly negative funding throughout.

Takeaway: Orderflow shows long‑term net selling (falling CVD) with short‑term positive delta on the bounce. OI data indicate recent deleveraging on the daily view, followed by gradual re‑engagement on 4H, with funding near neutral.

5. Volatility, Oscillators & Technical Stats

Oscillators

• 1H: RSI 62.3, Stoch 89.1, MFI 67.9 – strong intraday momentum.
• 4H: RSI 44.2, Stoch 61.7, MFI 25.0 – mixed, with weaker money flow.
• 1D: RSI 18.7, Stoch 0.7, MFI 13.7 – deeply depressed, consistent with recent heavy selloff.
• 1W: RSI 34.5, Stoch 2.4, MFI 33.5 – weak higher‑timeframe momentum.

Volatility & Liquidations

• TTM Squeeze: No squeeze – no compression signal.
• Daily HV: 96.37 (+26.77%), HV% 92.65 – elevated realized volatility.
• 4H HV: 55.77 (+7.37%), HV% 100.00 – also elevated.
• Global Liquidations: Multiple peaks with tens of millions in total liquidations, alternating between long‑ and short‑dominant events, with ETH consistently among top liquidated coins.

Key 4H Technical Stats (Latest Bar)

• Price: 4H candle up +4.28% (close), with volume +17.35%.
• MACDHISTOGRAM: Turned positive (9.59) from -2.71, indicating a short‑term bullish momentum shift.
• ADX: 64.96 (slightly down), +DI up 54.46%, -DI down 8.31% – strong trend with improving positive direction.
• CMF: Improved from -0.10 to -0.04, still negative but less outflow.
• CCI: From -72.62 to -27.93, moving toward neutral.
• Bollinger Bandwidth: Slightly down (0.28, -3.04%), modest contraction.

Key 1D Technical Stats (Last Completed Bar)

• Price: Daily close -14.96% with low at $1,818.18, heavy downside.
• Volume: +54.36%, ATR +6.96% – high‑energy selloff.
• MACD / Histogram: Further negative (MACD -262.80, Histogram -103.69), confirming strong bearish momentum.
• ADX: 42.94, -DI 41.72, +DI 5.99 – strong, negative trend.
• CMF: -0.24, indicating significant outflow.
• ZSCORE20: -2.34, deep deviation below mean.
• CHOP: 19.69, indicating directional, non‑choppy conditions.

Bottom Line

• Short‑term: ETH shows a strong 4H rebound with improving momentum indicators and supportive alt breadth, trading just below R1 ($2,071).
• Higher‑timeframe: Daily and weekly structures remain bearish, with down‑sloping EMAs, negative CVD, bearish OBV divergence, and confirmed weekly CHoCH and bearish candle patterns.
• Flows & Structure: ETF outflows, falling CVD, and distribution_phase MMS classification highlight underlying selling into strength, even as stablecoin and breadth metrics remain supportive.
• Volatility & Correlation: Realized volatility is elevated, and ETH is tightly correlated with BTC (0.99, beta 1.15), anchoring its path to broader BTC‑led market moves.