BTC Market Structure Snapshot: Defensive Regime and Elevated Downside Momentum

Overview

Bitcoin (BTCUSDT $68,130.02) is trading in a risk-off, defensively classified environment with:

• A short-term downtrend on the 4H chart.
• A still-labeled uptrend on the 1D swing structure.
• Strong downside momentum, elevated volatility, and significant recent ETF outflows.

This summary highlights the most critical structural and data-driven elements.

1. Macro Regime, Sentiment & ETF Flows

• Market Sentiment & Strategy (MMS V2):

  • Regime: RISK OFF
  • Strategy: DEFENSIVE
  • MMS Score: -2.70
  • Pattern: down_trend
  • Triggers include extreme BTC ETF outflow, spot dominance bullish, VIX elevated, and SPX breakdown.

• Cross-Market Context:

  • VIX: 22.13 (+22.13%)
  • SPX: -1.11%, NDX: -1.27%
  • BTC: -6.98%, ETH: -7.73%
  • TOTAL1: -5.91%, TOTAL2: -3.13%, TOTAL3: -1.95%

• Alt Breadth (AB): BEAR, -7.57 (Powerlvl3)

• Stablecoin Pressure (SPI): BEAR, 7.97

• BTC ETF Flows (recent):

  • 2026-02-04: -544.9M
  • 2026-02-03: -272.0M
  • 2026-02-02: +561.8M
  • Multiple large outflows dominate the recent series.

• Crypto Equity Weight (CEW): CORRELATED (1.00)

• Dominance Price Conflict (DPC): MILD ALIGNMENT (0.79)

2. Price Structure, Trend & Key Levels

• Current Price: $68,130.02

Support & Resistance:

• R1: $75,719
• S1: $71,051
• S2: $69,311
• S3: $66,384

Price is below S1 and S2, above S3.

4H Trend:

• Downtrend (LH + LL) with recent points:
  • LH: $79,360.00 (02-02-26)
  • LL: $72,945.50 (03-02-26)

1D Trend:

• Labeled Uptrend (HH + HL) with:
  • HH: $97,924.49 (14-01-26)
  • HL: $89,311.00 (08-01-26)

Smart Money Concepts:

• 4H BOS 🔴 at $72,945.50
• 1W BOS 🔴 at $80,600.00

Volume Profile (4H):

• POC: $78,089.65
• HVN: $68,796.10 (near current price)
• VAL: $74,678.80

Volume Profile (1D):

• POC: $89,182.87
• VAL: $81,496.26
• VAH: $96,869.48

Current price is well below the main daily value area.

Naked POCs:

• 4H NPOC: $73,923.29
• 1D NPOCs: $66,698.33, $62,224.00

3. Derivatives, Orderflow & Liquidations

Orderflow & CVD (4H):

• CVD Trend: Falling
• Net Delta: -$1.91B
• Buy/Sell: 48.8% / 51.2%
• Recent 4H deltas are strongly negative, with one small positive bar.

Orderflow & CVD (1D):

• CVD Trend: Falling
• Net Delta: -$5.83B
• Most recent days show negative deltas, except 02-02-26.

Open Interest & Funding (4H):

• OI Change (24h): +3.07%
• Latest Funding: -0.000049%
• Market State: Neutral

Open Interest & Funding (1D):

• OI Change (24h): +1.77%
• Latest Funding: 0.000089%
• Market State: Neutral

Leverage & FOP:

• LPI: -1.63 (MODERATE SHORT LEVERAGE)
• Funding (LPI context): -5.4279%
• OI Δ: -1.78%
• FOP Index: -0.84 (LOW ACTIVITY BEARISH)

Global Liquidations:

• Multiple peaks dominated by long liquidations, e.g.:
  • 05-02-26 15:20: $7.13M total, $7.01M longs, $0.12M shorts
  • BTC long liquidations up to $4.55M in a single event.

4. Momentum, EMAs, Volatility & Oscillators

Oscillator Scanner:

• 1H: RSI 20.6, Stoch 12.5, MFI 22.3
• 4H: RSI 16.3, Stoch 6.2, MFI 9.4
• 1D: RSI 22.9, Stoch 6.6, MFI 34.4
• 1W: RSI 32.4, Stoch 3.1, MFI 30.1

All show low values, consistent with strong downside momentum.

Divergences:

• 4H: No divergence signals.
• 1D: Bullish OBV divergence on 26-01-26.

4H EMAs (Price Distance):

• EMA 8: $71,594.73 (-4.84% from price)
• EMA 20: $74,530.59 (-8.59%)
• EMA 50: $78,826.68 (-13.57%)
• EMA 200: $86,217.57 (-20.98%)

4H EMA Slopes: All negative; Trend: Bearish (20 < 50), Macro: Bearish (50 < 200).

1D EMAs (Price Distance):

• EMA 8: $79,272.21 (-14.06%)
• EMA 20: $84,225.92 (-19.11%)
• EMA 50: $88,217.27 (-22.77%)
• EMA 200: $97,121.73 (-29.85%)

1D EMA Slopes: All negative; Trend: Bearish (20 < 50), Macro: Bearish (50 < 200).

4H Technical Highlights:

• Volume: +168.74% vs prior bar.
• ATR: +8.94%.
• MACD: More negative (-2,771.60, -13.03%).
• ADX: 66.82 (strong trend), -DI 42.59, +DI 4.30.
• Bollinger Bandwidth: +20.74% (0.17).
• CMF: -0.14 (from 0.00).
• HV: 31.10 (+14.34%).

1D Technical Highlights:

• ATR: +3.28%.
• MACD: -3,956.60 (more negative, -15.49%).
• ADX: 36.41 (+6.01%), -DI 34.67, +DI 7.80.
• Bollinger Bandwidth: 0.30 (+9.54%).
• CMF: -0.05 (more negative).
• HV: 47.29 (+2.16%).

5. Additional Structure & Tools

• TTM Squeeze: No squeeze found.
• Japanese Candlestick Patterns: No patterns detected.
• Fibonacci (1D): Current price $68,130.02 is below the 0% level at $71,888.00.
• Fibonacci (4H): Current price is near the lower end of the $90,600.00–$66,720.15 range.
• LTLB Structures:
  • 4H last top $79,360.00, last bottom $72,945.50.
  • 1D last top $90,600.00, last bottom $90,128.44.

Key Takeaways

• BTC trades in a defensive, risk-off environment with strong downside momentum, elevated volatility, and heavy recent ETF outflows.
• Short-term structure (4H) is clearly bearish, with price below all key EMAs, POCs, and support levels S1/S2.
• Higher-timeframe structure (1D) still carries an uptrend label, with a bullish OBV divergence noted on 26-01-26, even as EMAs and momentum indicators are currently bearish.
• Derivatives metrics show moderate short leverage, neutral funding, rising OI, and long-dominated liquidations, alongside falling CVD on both 4H and 1D.