Ethereum Market Structure Snapshot: Risk-Off, Strong Downtrend, Deep Below Averages

Overview

Ethereum is trading at $2,168.79 in a RISK OFF environment, with a down_trend pattern across crypto and ETH underperforming its historical averages on both 4H and 1D timeframes. The market is characterized by:

• Bearish altcoin breadth (AB -2.12)
• Bearish stablecoin pressure (SPI 2.48)
• Moderate short leverage (LPI -1.55, funding -6.6981%, OI Δ +2.40%)
• Moderate bearish OI Delta (OID -6.96)
• Low-activity but bearish FOP Index (-0.38)
• Risk-off confirmation via DPC (-0.73)
• High crypto–equity correlation (CEW 1.00)

ETH is tightly coupled to BTC (correlation 0.87, beta 1.48) and to equity risk, with VIX strong_up and crypto market caps (TOTAL1–3) down -4.02% to -5.12%.

Price, Trend & Key Levels

• Live Price: $2,168.79
• Support/Resistance:
  • S1: $2,146.00 (price slightly above)
  • S2: $2,009.00
  • S3: $1,904.00
  • R1: $2,389.00
  • R2: $2,494.00
  • R3: $2,632.00

Trend Structure

• 4H: Clear downtrend (lower highs and lower lows from $3,045.78 to $2,110.00).
• 1D: Symmetrical triangle (LH + HL), with price now near the lower fib region.

Fibonacci Context

• 4H Fib (3,045.78 → 2,076.68): Price is between 0% ($2,076.68) and 23.6% ($2,305.39).
• 1D Fib (3,402.89 → 2,110.00): Price is between 0% ($2,110.00) and 23.6% ($2,415.12).

ETH is trading near the lower ends of both 4H and 1D fib ranges.

EMAs, Volume Profile & Smart Money

EMAs & Trend

4H EMA Distance:

• EMA 8: $2,234.50 (-2.94%)
• EMA 20: $2,309.93 (-6.11%)
• EMA 50: $2,506.20 (-13.46%)
• EMA 200: $2,866.89 (-24.35%)

1D EMA Distance:

• EMA 8: $2,524.87 (-14.10%)
• EMA 20: $2,773.66 (-21.81%)
• EMA 50: $2,964.34 (-26.84%)
• EMA 200: $3,254.79 (-33.37%)

All EMAs on both timeframes:

• Slope down across the board
• Trend: Bearish (20 < 50)
• Macro: Bearish (50 < 200)

ETH is 14–33% below daily EMAs and 3–24% below 4H EMAs.

Volume Profile & NPOC

• 4H POC: $2,933.76, VAL: $2,278.35 – ETH trades below 4H value area.
• 1D POC/VAL: $2,855.64 – ETH trades well below daily value area.
• 1D NPOC: $2,451.95 – Untraded daily POC above current price.
• 4H NPOC: None active.

Smart Money Concepts & Patterns

• FVG (Res): 1.5% @ $2,221.47 – Fair value gap resistance above current price.
• 1W CHoCH: $2,623.57 (1 bar ago) – Weekly structural shift.
• Candlestick Patterns:
  • 1W: Confirmed bearish at $2,816.89
  • 4H: Evening bearish at $2,254.86
  • 1D: Bullish liquidity grab at $2,270.15
• TTM Squeeze (4H): Active – Volatility compression on 4H.

Derivatives, Orderflow & Liquidations

CVD & Orderflow

4H:

• CVD Trend: Falling
• Net Delta: $-879.7M
• Buy/Sell: 49.5% / 50.5%
• Recent deltas show multiple negative bars with one large positive spike.

1D:

• CVD Trend: Falling
• Net Delta: $-5.21B
• Buy/Sell: 48.9% / 51.1%
• Two large negative deltas followed by three smaller positive days.

Overall, both timeframes show persistent net selling, with recent short-term positive flows not yet offsetting the cumulative negative CVD.

Open Interest & Funding

4H:

• OI Change (24h): +2.05%
• Funding: Slightly negative, oscillating around zero.
• Market State: Neutral.

1D:

• OI Change (24h): -12.56%
• Funding: Slightly negative, near flat on average.
• Market State: Neutral.

Combined with LPI -1.55 and OID -6.96, derivatives lean moderately bearish with short-side pressure and some position reduction on the daily horizon.

Global Liquidations

• Multiple peaks dominated by long liquidations, especially:
  • $4.10M at 04-02-26 13:35 (all longs, ETH $2.64M).
  • $3.12M at 04-02-26 13:45 (mostly longs, ETH $2.37M).

These events highlight long-side stress in ETH and broader majors.

ETH ETF Flows

• Large outflows: -252.9M (2026-01-30), -155.7M (2026-01-29).
• Large inflows: +117.0M (2026-01-26), +28.1M (2026-01-28).
• Latest: +14.0M (2026-02-03) – modest inflow after prior outflows.

ETF flows show high turnover with alternating large in/out days, most recently a small net inflow.

Momentum, Oscillators & Volatility

Oscillators

• 4H: RSI 34.0, Stoch 34.9, MFI 36.3 – weak momentum zone.
• 1D: RSI 25.2, Stoch 12.9, MFI 16.0 – strongly depressed momentum and money flow.
• 1W: RSI 34.5, Stoch 2.4, MFI 33.5 – weak weekly momentum.

Trend Strength & Volatility

4H:

• ADX: 63.69 – very strong trend.
• -DI 36.83 vs +DI 6.36 – downside-dominant.
• ATR: 93.56 (+2.05%), HV: 44.04 (+2.32%) – slightly rising realized volatility.
• ZSCORE20: -1.60 – price ~1.6σ below 20-period mean.

1D:

• ADX: 38.32 – strong trend.
• -DI 39.09 vs +DI 7.55 – downside-dominant.
• ATR: 177.12 (+3.26%), HV: 75.74 – high realized volatility.
• ZSCORE20: -1.99 – price ~2σ below 20-day mean.

VWAPs & Money Flow

4H:

• DVWAP 2,192.93, WVWAP 2,245.55, MVWAP 2,267.90 – all above price, all drifting lower.
• CMF: 0.04 (from -0.06) – short-term inflow on 4H.

1D:

• DVWAP 2,234.53, WVWAP 2,266.47, MVWAP 2,282.52 – all above price, trending lower.
• CMF: -0.09 – net outflows on daily.

Need-to-Know Summary

• Macro: ETH trades in a RISK OFF, down_trend environment with bearish alt breadth, bearish stablecoin pressure, and short-tilted leverage.
• Trend: Strong downtrend on 4H and strong bearish trend on 1D, confirmed by EMAs, ADX, DI, Supertrend, and price structure.
• Positioning:
  • 4H: OI slightly up, funding near zero but negative on average.
  • 1D: OI down -12.56%, indicating position reduction.
  • OID -6.96 and LPI -1.55 show moderate bearish leverage.
• Flows:
  • CVD strongly negative on both 4H and 1D, with persistent net selling.
  • ETF flows show large recent outflows with a small latest inflow.
• Location: ETH trades below all major EMAs, below 4H and 1D value areas, and near the lower fib and Bollinger regions, with 1D ZSCORE20 ~ -2.
• Correlation: High correlation to BTC (0.87, beta 1.48) and to equities (CEW 1.00), with VIX strong_up.

This configuration describes a market where ETH is in a strong, downside-oriented trend, deeply below its longer-term averages, with elevated volatility, persistent net selling, and tight linkage to broader crypto and equity risk conditions.