Bitcoin at $76.2K: Risk-Off, ETF Absorption, and Deleveraging – Key Takeaways

Bitcoin is trading at $76,173.57 in a risk-off macro regime, with broad crypto weakness, derivatives deleveraging, and significant ETF inflows creating a complex but well-defined market structure.

1. Macro Regime & Cross-Asset Context

• Regime: RISK OFF (Score: -0.80) with MMS Score 2.00 and pattern absorption_phase.
• Interpretation: Price is falling, but the framework flags ABSORPTION driven by smart money and BTC ETF buying.
• Market Context:
  • VIX: 17.55 (+17.55%) – elevated volatility in traditional markets.
  • SPX: -0.97%, NDX: -1.83% – risk assets under pressure.
  • GOLD: +3.09% – defensive tone.
  • TOTAL 1/2/3: -3.04% / -2.52% / -1.40% – broad crypto drawdown.
  • BTC: -3.30%, ETH: -4.95% – majors negative, ETH weaker than BTC.
• Alt Breadth (AB): BEAR, -2.62 (Powerlvl2) – altcoins broadly weak.
• Stablecoin Pressure (SPI): BEAR, 2.89 – stablecoin dynamics lean against risk.
• Crypto Equity Weight (CEW): 1.00 (CORRELATED) – BTC moves in line with crypto equities.
• Dominance Price Conflict (DPC): NEUTRAL (0.01) – no major conflict between BTC dominance and price.

2. ETF Flows, Derivatives, and Orderflow

BTC ETF Dashboard

• Latest flow (2026-02-02): +$561.8M – labeled as “extreme BTC ETF inflow”.
• Prior week: several large outflows (e.g., -817.8M, -509.7M, -147.4M, -103.5M).
• This marks a clear shift from outflows to a strong inflow, aligning with the absorption_phase label.

Leverage, OI, and FOP

• Leverage Pressure (LPI): MODERATE SHORT LEVERAGE, Value -1.25, Funding -0.5092%, OI Δ -3.93% – short-side leverage more pronounced with OI contracting.
• OI Delta (OID): CAPITULATIONLVL-3, Value 12.99 – OI behavior classified as capitulation-level.
• FOP Index: LOW ACTIVITY BEARISH, Value -0.42 – price (-3.30%), funding (-0.51), and OI (-3.93%) combine into a low-activity bearish derivatives environment.

Open Interest & Funding

• 4H:
  • OI Change (24h): -11.69% – strong deleveraging.
  • Funding: near zero (latest -0.000005%, avg 0.000008%), Market State: Neutral.
• 1D:
  • OI Change (24h): -8.13% – consistent OI decline from 0.103M to 0.089M.
  • Funding: slightly negative but near flat, Market State: Neutral.

Orderflow & CVD

• 4H CVD:
  • Trend: Falling, Net Delta: -$2.08B, Buy/Sell: 48.6% / 51.4%, Divergence: Consistent.
  • Recent deltas all negative, with increasing magnitude into the latest bar.
• 1D CVD:
  • Trend: Falling, Net Delta: -$5.57B, Buy/Sell: 48.9% / 51.1%, Divergence: Consistent.
  • Multiple consecutive negative days, with only one positive delta day.

Net picture:
– Persistent net selling and deleveraging,
– Funding near neutral,
– ETF inflows providing offsetting spot demand.

3. Trend, Structure, and Key Levels

Support & Resistance

• R3: $93,438
• R2: $88,914
• R1: $83,726
• S1: $74,015
• S2: $69,491
• S3: $64,303

BTC at $76,173.57 is above S1 but below R1, trading in the lower band of the recent range.

4H Trend & Volume Profile

• Trend: Downtrend (LH + LL).
• 4H LTLB:
  • Last Top: $84,621.16 (-7.67%)
  • Last Bottom: $74,604.00 (+4.73%)
• 4H Volume Profile:
  • POC: $78,243.50
  • VAL: $75,513.87
  • VAH: $88,252.12
• 4H NPOCs: $89,479.66 and $76,292.98 (the latter near current price).
• BTC trades below 4H POC and HVN, but above VAL, near the lower value area.

1D Trend & Volume Profile

• Trend: Uptrend (HH + HL) in swing structure, but:
  • EMAs and Supertrend are bearish.
• 1D Volume Profile:
  • POC: $89,141.74
  • VAL: $83,690.09
  • VAH: $96,410.61
• 1D NPOC: $66,698.33 below current price.
• BTC trades below daily VAL and POC, outside the main daily value area.

Smart Money Concepts & Divergences

• Weekly BOS down at $80,600 (1 bar ago) – recent structural break on the weekly.
• FVG support at $77,970.62 (0.2%) on 4H – currently above spot.
• Bullish OBV divergence on 26-01-26 (1D) – historical accumulation signal.
• No new 4H divergence signals, while CVD divergence remains consistently negative.

4. Momentum, Volatility, and Trend Tools

Oscillators

• RSI:
  • 1h 37.5, 4h 37.7, 1d 29.2, 1w 32.4 – weak momentum across timeframes.
• Stoch:
  • Very low on 1h (3.3) and 1w (3.1), elevated on 4h (74.2), low on 1d (22.6).
• MFI:
  • Ranges 31.8–44.5, indicating moderate to weak money flow.

EMA Distance & Slope

• 4H: Price is below all EMAs (8/20/50/200) by 2.7–13.3%, with all slopes negative.
  • Trend labels: Bearish (20 < 50), Macro Bearish (50 < 200).
• 1D: Price is below all EMAs (8/20/50/200) by 7.7–21.9%, with all slopes negative.
  • Trend labels: Bearish (20 < 50), Macro Bearish (50 < 200).

Volatility & Squeeze

• TTM Squeeze: Active on 1H – volatility compression on the hourly.
• 4H Technicals:
  • Bollinger Bandwidth down -19.73% (0.08) – compression.
  • ADX 54.53, -DI 29.45 > +DI 9.50 – strong bearish trend.
  • CHOP 61.30 – choppy environment despite trend strength.
  • CMF 0.02 – slight positive shift in volume-based flow.
• 1D Technicals:
  • Bollinger Bandwidth up +6.74% (0.25) – expanding daily volatility.
  • ADX 32.27, -DI 37.64 > +DI 9.95 – bearish directional bias.
  • HV 46.23, HV% 61.63 – elevated but easing realized volatility.
  • CMF improved to 0.00, CCI -176.17 (less extreme than prior).

5. Core Structural Summary

• Macro: Risk-off, with equities down, VIX up, and gold higher.
• Crypto: TOTAL 1/2/3 negative, Alt Breadth BEAR (-2.62), SPI BEAR (2.89) – broad weakness and stablecoin preference.
• BTC-Specific:
  • ETF: Strong latest inflow (+561.8M) after prior outflows – key absorption component.
  • Derivatives: Deleveraging (OI -11.69% 4H, -8.13% 1D), moderate short leverage, low-activity bearish FOP.
  • Orderflow: CVD strongly negative with consistent divergence, indicating persistent net selling.
  • Trend:
    • 4H: Downtrend, bearish EMAs, strong ADX with seller dominance.
    • 1D: Swing uptrend, but bearish EMA stack and Supertrend.
  • Location: Price below daily VAL/POC, but above 4H VAL and near local NPOC ($76,292.98) and S1 ($74,015).
  • Volatility: Elevated but compressing on 4H; expanding on 1D; 1H TTM Squeeze active.

Overall, BTC sits in a structurally pressured but ETF-supported environment, with risk-off macro conditions, broad crypto weakness, persistent sell-side orderflow, and ongoing deleveraging, all interacting with notable spot/ETF absorption around the current price zone.